Thursday's Miami Open action includes the last two quarterfinals in the men's draw, as well as both women's semifinals. The top two WTA players of 2026 face off for what will already be their third high-stakes battle this year, while an ATP player who perennially finds success at the Miami Open takes aim at adding another upset win to his accolades here.
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All men's and women's singles matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Francisco Cerundolo (+213) vs. Alexander Zverev
Cerundolo has consistently found ways to generate his best tennis at the Miami Open, where the mix of court speed, humid conditions and a raucous group of Argentinian supporters seem to fit him perfectly. This is Cerundolo's fourth quarterfinal here in five appearances, and he has made it to the semifinals on one previous occasion. Zverev is the far better server, but Cerundolo's forehand will be the biggest weapon on the court once they get into rallies, and the world No. 19 has proven he can use that tool effectively in this matchup, playing Zverev to a 3-3 stalemate in six previous meetings. All three of Zverev's wins have come on hard courts, including a straight-sets win at the Australian Open this year, but this isn't just any hard-court venue as far as Cerundolo's concerned, since his .789 Miami Open win rate (15-4) dwarfs Cerundolo's .469 career mark at all other ATP hard-court events.
Miami Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Jannik Sinner (-4400) vs. Frances Tiafoe
Sinner has set a new record with 28 consecutive sets won at ATP Masters 1000 events, so Tiafoe has little chance of taking two out of three sets against the second-ranked Italian, even though the American plays his best tennis on home soil. Sinner leads their head-to-head 4-1, with all five matches coming on hard courts. It's almost impossible to beat Sinner as it is, and he has also been the beneficiary of some lucky breaks on the court in the past year, most recently getting the benefit of the sun setting to just the right angle to create difficulty for Tiafoe's compatriot Alex Michelsen when Michelsen was serving for the second set at 5-3 in Sinner's eventual 7-5, 7-6 (4) fourth-round victory here. Given how close Michelsen came to ending Sinner's historic streak of consecutive sets won at Masters 1000 tournaments, Tiafoe +1.5 sets at +330 looks like a decent bet here if you want to ride with the American underdog to some extent.
Miami Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Coco Gauff (-111) vs. Karolina Muchova
Gauff hasn't been in peak form in this tournament, much like the rest of 2026, but the fourth-seeded South Florida native is finding ways to win by raising her level in the clutch. Though each of her four matches here have gone three sets, Gauff hasn't lost more than three games in any of those deciding sets. Muchova has started 18-3 in 2026 compared to Gauff's 15-5 mark, but even with the Czech in strong form, Gauff managed to win their only matchup of the year at the Australian Open. That victory gave the American a perfect 5-0 record against Muchova, and Gauff has dropped only one set across those five matches.
Elena Rybakina (+101) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
There has been very little separating these two in their recent meetings, which makes Rybakina the superior value as a slight underdog in this clash between the WTA Tour's top two performers of 2026. Rybakina is responsible for Sabalenka's only loss of the season, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 in the final of the Australian Open. Sabalenka got revenge in the final of Indian Wells 11 days ago, barely escaping with a 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (6) victory. The top-ranked Belarusian leads their overall head-to-head 9-7, but Rybakina has a 7-6 edge on hard courts. Both players set up their powerful baseline games with excellent serves, so this match will likely come down to how they play key points when rare break opportunities surface. With Sabalenka claiming their most recent encounter, the ball is now in Rybakina's court to adjust and try to get back on top in what has been the most entertaining and hotly contested rivalry on the WTA Tour to begin the year.
