Wednesday's singles action at the Miami Open consists of the first two men's quarterfinals and the last two women's quarterfinals. A young player who has already made history in this tournament will look to pull off another upset, while recent head-to-head history portends an uphill battle for an American in a clash between top-five seeds.
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All men's and women's singles matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Martin Landaluce (+215) vs. Jiri Lehecka
Lehecka was expecting to see a talented young Spaniard in the quarterfinals here, but rather than world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz, it will be the 20-year-old Landaluce, who is the first man born in 1996 or later to reach the quarterfinals of a Masters 1000 event. The Spanish qualifier has won six consecutive matches to get here, including victories over seeded opponents Luciano Darderi, Karen Khachanov and Sebastian Korda, the last of whom knocked Alcaraz out of this tournament. Most of the pressure in this match will fall on the shoulders of the 21st-seeded Lehecka, who is trying to reach just the second Masters 1000 semifinal of his career. Landaluce's ranked 151st and came into this tournament with just a 2-14 record in ATP main-draw matches, but the youngster has clearly taken a step forward with his game and can continue to play the relaxed yet confident brand of tennis that got him to this point.
Hailey Baptiste (+830) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka's the clear favorite in this match, but Baptiste's +830 odds undersell the 24-year-old American underdog's chances of pulling the upset. Baptiste has flashed an elite ceiling over the past few weeks. She went toe-to-toe with Elena Rybakina for two sets at Indian Wells, squandering three set points in the opening set and winning the second 6-2 before falling 6-2 in the third. Baptiste promptly bounced back here with three consecutive straight-set wins over top-25 seeds Liudmila Samsonova, Elina Svitolina and Jelena Ostapenko. Sabalenka's lone loss of 2026 came against Rybakina in the Australian Open final, but the world No. 1 had four losses to players ranked outside the top 20 last year, and the 45th-ranked Baptiste is certainly performing at a top-20 level at the moment.
Miami Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Elena Rybakina (-223) vs. Jessica Pegula
Pegula's enjoying an excellent start to 2026 thanks in large part to her beefed-up first serve, but she hasn't found any success against Rybakina. The fifth-seeded American has a 19-3 record this year, but two of those losses were straight-set defeats at the hands of Rybakina in the semifinals of the Australian Open and quarterfinals of Indian Wells. Rybakina also beat Pegula at the WTA Finals to close out 2025, and while Rybakina's overall head-to-head advantage is only 5-3, Pegula's last win came back in 2023. The third-seeded Rybakina has put her elite serve and powerful groundstrokes to good use this year, winning her second career Grand Slam title at the Australian Open as part of a 20-4 start to the season.
Miami Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Arthur Fils (-143) vs. Tommy Paul
Fils' forehand is likely to be the difference in this match, as both players are excellent athletes who are comfortable getting forward, but the Frenchman can put the ball away from anywhere on these fast hard courts with his monstrous forehand while Paul needs to construct points more precisely to get into winning positions. Paul won their only previous meeting in a tight three-setter three years ago, but the 21-year-old Fils has improved significantly since then. Fils is 10-2 in his last 12 matches, losing to only Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev over that span, and this is the second consecutive year in which the Frenchman has reached the quarterfinals of both legs of the Sunshine Double at Indian Wells and the Miami Open. This is the first time Paul has advanced to the quarterfinals of the Miami Open in his career, though the 28-year-old American has four Masters 1000 semifinal appearances and reached the SFs of the Australian Open in 2023.
