This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
It's raining dogs in our article series, as we have hit four of our last six plays at (+200) or better during the last two days of the French Open. The biggest of these was Elise Mertens, who rather easily dispatched the women's No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula by a score of 6-1, 6-4. A top player fell on the men's side as well, as Lorenzo Sonego overcame a two-set deficit that included a bagel to drop the No.7 seed Andrey Rublev. As always, all Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but prospective bettors should feel free to search for the best lines available for these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites.
As a reminder, the men play best-of-five-set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. In order to make our picks, we consider things like career records at Roland Garros, recent form, and head-to-head match scores against an opponent where available. We will highlight underdogs in the first section labeled "Upset Alert," while significant favorites will be listed in the "Lock it in" section. Finally, we'll take a look at players who can be had at a bargain in the "Value Bet" section.
Upset Alert
Daniel Altmaier (+205) vs. Grigor Dimitrov
My first instinct was to fade the German player after a battle of more than five hours against Jannik Sinner in his second-round match, but I didn't expect that the experienced clay courter would be a solid underdog here. That's not to say the Bulgarian can't play on the dirt (9-4 this season), but the 35-year-old has yet to be tested in this tournament, and Altmaier features an all-court game that combines powerful groundstrokes and agility. Dimitrov was broken four times and had to save nine break points in total against Emil Ruusuvuori, which doesn't bode well when facing a player in Altmaier's current form.
Honorable mention
Olga Danilovic (+270) vs. Ons Jabeur
Lock it in
Nicolas Jarry (-285) vs. Marcos Giron
Jarry moves from a value play to a big favorite by virtue of his win over World No. 17 Tommy Paul, against whom the Chilean converted five out of six break points. Jarry has now notched an impressive 20 wins on clay this season, while Giron has logged just a 7-5 record on the soft stuff. The American punched his ticket to Round 3 by playing solid tennis with few mistakes, but he will need more than that to get by Jarry, who has a tremendous amount of power from both wings.
Elena Rybakina (-475) vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo
Tormo has defied expectations thus far, knocking off Petra Martic as a player outside of the top 100. While her craft and endurance can make her a tricky opponent, there shouldn't be much in this matchup to threaten Rybakina, who has lost just two matches on clay this season. Tormo won just 24 percent of her second-serve points in the match against Martic, which won't be anywhere near good enough to beat someone like Rybakina, who plays an attacking brand of tennis. I expect Rybakina's winner count to be impressive as she takes advantage of a much less powerful opponent.
Honorable Mention
Alexander Zverev (-235) vs. Frances Tiafoe
Value Bets
Taylor Fritz (-140) vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Fritz played a shaky first set against Arthur Rinderknech, but buttoned down in subsequent frames, facing only one break point the rest of the match. Meanwhile, Cerundolo faced a whopping 19 break points and hit more unforced errors than winners (23:15) in his straight-set win over Yannick Hanfmann. Fritz is the wrong player to make errors against, as evidenced by the 45 winners he hit in his second-round match. If Cerundolo can't find a way to clean up his game, Fritz may just hit him off the court.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry (-145) vs. Borna Coric
We only got to see a bit of what Etcheverry can do in the first round against Jack Draper, as he retired early in the second set. The Argentine backed that up nicely with a comprehensive victory over a top-20 player in Alex de Minaur in straight sets. Etcheverry can play a very aggressive brand of tennis, which should help him take over the match against a more passive player like Coric. It's also worth noting that Etcheverry bested Borna on clay in their only encounter at the Perugia Challenger in 2022, defeating the Croatian player in straight sets. Etcheverry has quietly made his way into the third round, which may have gotten us a line that should be a fair bit wider.
Honorable Mention
Beatriz Haddad Maia (-125) vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova
