This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Western & Southern Open begins in earnest Monday, August 14 from the hard courts of Cincinnati, though a few first-round matches were played Sunday, even as the championship matches were taking place at the preceding event in Canada. This ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 event will be the last tournament most top players participate in before the US Open, where main draw play begins August 28. Both the men and women will have 56-player draws in Cincinnati, with the top eight seeds getting byes directly into the second round. All matches at the Western & Southern Open will be best-of-three sets, which is par for the course in the WTA game but different from the best-of-five format in men's Grand Slams.
Rafael Nadal will remain sidelined for the remainder of 2023 by a hip injury, and other notable absences on the men's side include Nick Kyrgios (wrist), Marin Cilic (knee), Pablo Carreno Busta (elbow), Denis Shapovalov (knee) and Jenson Brooksby (wrist). Key players missing from the women's draw include Simona Halep (suspension), Veronika Kudermetova (hip), Garbine Muguruza (personal) and Sofia Kenin (thigh). On the bright side, Novak Djokovic is set to play his first tournament in the United States since 2021, and fellow Wimbledon runner-up Ons Jabeur (knee) is ready to return to action after missing the Canadian Open, as are Karen Khachanov (back) and Barbora Krejcikova (ankle) in the men's and women's draw, respectively.
Futures odds for the Western & Southern Open are up on mobile sportsbooks such as DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook. DraftKings Sportsbook has posted title odds for the women but only had odds on reaching the final for the men as of Sunday evening. You can also use those mobile betting apps to wager on individual matches. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including DraftKings Sportsbook.
Western & Southern Open Picks: Men's Tournament
The Favorite
Carlos Alcaraz (-110 odds to reach final) - After losing to Tommy Paul at the Canadian Open for the second consecutive year, Alcaraz may not have to wait long to avenge that defeat, as he could face the 14th-seeded American in the Round of 16. Should he get through that encounter, the top seed has an easier path to the final than his counterparts in the bottom half of the draw. No. 5 seed Casper Ruud is in Alcaraz's quarter, while Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev are his two likeliest semifinal opponents. Alcaraz was far from his best in Toronto last week, but he and Novak Djokovic are the clear top two players in the world when they're anywhere close to clicking.
In the Mix
Novak Djokovic (+110) - Djokovic will be making his first appearance since losing the Wimbledon final to Alcaraz. No longer having the pressure of his chase for the calendar slam hanging over his head should help Djokovic play freely in his first stateside tournament appearance in nearly two years. He'll look to sharpen his game for the US Open with a deep run here, but Djokovic faces a daunting draw. His first two opponents after a first-round bye could be Canadian Open semifinalist Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and runner-up Alex de Minaur. Canadian Open champion Jannik Sinner is his potential quarterfinal opponent, followed by either Daniil Medvedev or Holger Rune before a possible rematch of the Wimbledon final against Alcaraz.
Daniil Medvedev (+330) - Medvedev surprisingly lost to de Minaur in Toronto, but the Russian still boasts a robust 31-4 record on hard courts in 2023. If he faces Rune in the quarterfinals, it will be their first meeting on this surface, though the fact that Medvedev split two meetings with Rune on clay earlier this year bodes well for the No. 3 seed's chances on his preferred surface. Medvedev's also 1-1 against Djokovic this year (both on hard courts), and 0-2 against Alcaraz in 2023 (one meeting on hard courts, one on grass).
Sleepers
Jannik Sinner (+700) - Sinner's a nice value coming off his first Masters 1000 title at the Canadian Open. That title was preceded by his first major semifinal at Wimbledon, and Sinner's recent results suggest he has moved up to Medvedev's tier. The 21-year-old Italian is 0-9 combined against Medvedev and Djokovic in his career, though, and while he's played Alcaraz to an even 3-3 head-to-head, Sinner would likely have to get through the Serb in the quarterfinals and the Russian in the semis just to face his young rival in the final here.
Andrey Rublev (+900) - The hard courts at the Western & Southern Open are notorious for playing as fast as any on tour, and Rublev's high-powered game fits this environment well. In 2021, Rublev made his first two Masters 1000 finals on the clay of Monte Carlo and the hard courts of Cincinnati. In 2023, he captured his first Masters 1000 title in Monte Carlo, which could give the No. 7 seed the confidence necessary to repeat that feat here. Given the way Tsitsipas has performed recently, few would be surprised if Rublev emerged victorious should they meet in the quarterfinals.
Karen Khachanov (+6500) - Khachanov was performing like a borderline top-five player prior to hurting his back at the French Open. Despite his long odds, Khachanov is capable of making a deep run here if he can shake off the rust quickly in his return to action. Even with the missed time, Khachanov is ranked No. 11 in the world, having reached the US Open semifinals, Australian Open semifinals and French Open quarterfinals in his last three Grand Slam appearances. He's in the quarter of the draw with Rublev and Tsitsipas, which offers the least difficult path to the semifinals.
Fade
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+800) - Tsitispas' year got off to an encouraging start when he made the Australian Open final, but it's been one step forward and two steps back at almost every turn since then for the 24-year-old from Athens. After a 3-4 rough patch following his quarterfinal showing at the French Open, Tsitsipas finally found his game with a 250-level title in Los Cabos, only to immediately drop his first match in Toronto in straight sets to 36-year-old Gael Monfils. Every opponent Tsitsipas faces will be motivated by the knowledge that they have a realistic shot of upsetting a top-five player given his recent inconsistency, and he has a tough early draw, with talented American Ben Shelton in the second round and possibly defending champion Borna Coric in the next match. Should the No. 4 seed reach the semis, he'll likely face Alcaraz, against whom Tsitsipas is 0-5.
Western & Southern Open Picks: Women's Tournament
The Favorite
Iga Swiatek (+225 odds to win title) -Like last week in Montreal, Swiatek has the best title odds in the women's draw but is a clear underdog against the field. While Swiatek didn't win the Canadian Open, she retained the No. 1 ranking with her semifinal result in Montreal. The courts in Cincinnati play faster, which will make this a less comfortable environment for the top seed. Considering Swiatek's 0-3 against Elena Rybakina this year, the Pole would be fighting an uphill battle should they meet in the semifinals here.
In the Mix
Aryna Sabalenka (+500) - Sabalenka lucked out with the draw this go-around, ending up on the opposite side of the draw from Swiatek and Rybakina. Potential matchups with Ons Jabeur in the quarterfinals and Jessica Pegula in the semis aren't cakewalks, but Sabalenka should be a comfortable favorite in any match she plays prior to the final. The Australian Open champion is 41-9 in 2023, and she should have no trouble overpowering opponents in these quick conditions.
Elena Rybakina (+550) - Rybakina fell to the red-hot Liudmila Samsonova in the Canadian Open semis, marking the fourth time in five hard-court Grand Slam or WTA 1000 events in 2022 that Rybakina has reached at least the semifinals. Perhaps Samsonova's run and Jessica Pegula's title in Montreal suggest the gap has closed a bit, but based on what we have seen over the past year, there's still a substantial difference in level in the biggest tournaments when you compare the trio of Swiatek, Sabalenka and Rybakina to the rest of the field. Being on Swiatek's side of the draw means Rybakina could have to face the other two members of the big three after a quarterfinal match with an in-form Coco Gauff to win the title here, but the big server might just be up to the task.
Sleepers
Jessica Pegula (+700) - Pegula normally struggles against top players, but she managed to reverse that trend en route to her second career WTA 1000 title at the Canadian Open. After thrilling three-set victories over Coco Gauff in the quarterfinals and Swiatek in the semifinals, Pegula lucked out and cruised to victory in a non-competitive 6-1, 6-0 final against Liudmila Samsonova, who was playing two matches in one day for the second time in three days due to weather delays. Riding the momentum from that title, Pegula will be a tough out as the No. 3 seed here. Her draw is manageable, with potential clashes against No. 15 seed Madison Keys and No. 8 seed Maria Sakkari in the Round of 16 and quarterfinals, respectively, before Sabalenka could await in the semis.
Coco Gauff (+1100) - Gauff has found her game after a midsession lull, winning the Citi Open and then reaching the quarters at the Canadian Open while beating four top-20 players between those two tournaments. A potential Rybakina-Swiatek-Sabalenka gauntlet from the quarterfinals onward will be tough to overcome, but the seventh-seeded Gauff will be a tough out here given the 19-year-old American's recent form.
Jennifer Brady (+6500) - Brady's finally back healthy after a nearly two-year hiatus, and she's quickly tracking towards the form that helped her reach the 2021 Australian Open final. In her third tournament back last week, the 28-year-old American beat Jelena Ostapenko in the first round of the Canadian Open before showing she can go toe to toe with anyone in a narrow 6-7 (3), 7-6 (5), 6-3 loss to Rybakina. After a first-round match with Donna Vekic, Brady's first two potential seeded opponents have both battled their own injuries recently, as No. 11 Barbora Krejcikova (ankle) and fifth-seeded Ons Jabeur (knee) are both attempting to return after sitting out the Canadian Open last week.
Fade
Ons Jabeur (+1600) - Jabeur hasn't played since her crushing loss to Marketa Vondrousova in the Wimbledon final. Injuries have marred the Tunisian's 2023 season, and Jabeur's likely to take a cautious approach here in her return from a knee injury with the US Open around the corner. Considering her career winning percentage on hard courts is under 54 percent, compared to marks over 70 percent on both clay and grass, an early exit from the No. 5 seed wouldn't be surprising. Another player to fade here, though her long title odds already reflect her diminished chances, is Caroline Garcia (+5000). Garcia's the defending champion at the Western & Southern Open, and the fast hard courts suit her aggressive game well when she's clicking, but the sixth-seeded Frenchwoman was playing at a much higher level a year ago. She enters this tournament on a three-match losing streak and hasn't been to a semifinal since she made the Monterrey final in early March.
Picks to Win the Western & Southern Open
Alcaraz should be sharper in his second hard-court tournament back following the clay and grass seasons. He'll benefit from a far easier path to the final here while only one of Djokovic, Sinner or Medvedev can emerge from the other side. The quick conditions should allow Alcaraz to dictate play in a possible matchup with Medvedev or Djokovic, while Sinner may experience a bit of a letdown after just having satiated his hunger for his first Masters 1000 title in Toronto. Alcaraz and Djokovic are the two clear favorites as usual, and it's advantage Alcaraz here given the draw.
One tournament doesn't make a trend, and Pegula's Canadian open title will likely end up being a blip for the big three, just as Krejcikova's WTA 1000 title in Dubai was earlier this year. The dominance of Swiatek, Sabalenka and Rybakina is likely to continue, and Sabalenka has the easiest path to success here with Swiatek and Rybakina in the other half of the draw, making the Belarusian the best title bet in Cincinnati.
