This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
Welcome back to our weekly DraftKings MLS recommendations. We're going to examine two potential winning lineups for this weekend's slate and dive into the strategic side of lineup construction, while still presenting a bundle of great plays to target. Keep in mind that there are countless ways to build a winning DraftKings lineup, and these are just two approaches that I think could pay off.
Lineup No. 1: Flex-ability
Each week when the daily fantasy games open up, I begin with two rough drafts on DraftKings. The first has three high powered forwards and I figure things out from there. While I like to see how this looks initially, this quick exercise often pushes me toward other approaches. The second way looks very similar to this lineup. I grab two good forwards, two good midfielders and then a proverbial lottery ticket in the flex spot. This way, you can quickly decide if downgrading any of your other players and upgrading the flex is worthwhile when lineups come out. It's a simple approach, and one that should work wonders as long as you find the right value player for the flex.
With top forward prices slowly climbing each week, I think this strategy is a good one to begin with this week. Of all the top choices, I like Sebastian Giovinco against the Philadelphia Union best. In his previous four games, he has an astronomical 34 shots. Without digging into the MLS history books, I'd wager that is one of the higher totals ever produced in a similar time frame. Giovinco was so impressive last week, that I would not be surprised if the Union defenders took a page from the Cuban National Team's book and defected prior to the game.
Next, I'm locked in on Krisztian Nemeth this week. For $7,500, he's still undervalued on DraftKings thanks to being in the shadow of Dom Dwyer, but he's been equally, if not more productive than the Englishman. Nemeth has four goals in his last three home matches, and I like Sporting Kansas City at home once more against the Montreal Impact. Stacking both Sporting forwards wouldn't be a bad idea, either.
In the midfield, I'm going back to the well with Lee Nguyen and Javier Morales. They play like premier midfielders but are priced like second-tier ones. Morales drew a whopping nine fouls last match and gets to play a Houston team with a similar bite. Both midfielders have averaged double-digit fantasy points over their previous four matches and neither has a particularly frightening match up. NYC FC got exposed by Giovinco last week, and while Nguyen isn't on that level, the Revolution player could have a field day if City put up a defensive performance just 50 percent as atrocious as their previous game.
We've grabbed our four-player attacking core and now need to fill in the defense. In his first match, Andoni Iraola showed that he can be one of the league's best attacking fullbacks. The production wasn't there, but the potential was evident. New England's defense has been dreadful lately, and even on the road, I think Iraola will get forward plenty again. A La Liga talent for just $3,000 is tough to pass up. I also like Orlando's Tyler Turner should he start in Luke Boden's (suspension) place. At just 19 years old, he recently played for the U.S. U-23s in Toulon. He also brings some attacking potential at a bargain price of $3,000. In goal, we'll follow the herd and get Joe Bendik. Chris Konopka is suspended, giving Bendik a chance to reclaim his starting role. He gets a soft match up against Philadelphia, who haven't been poor lately, but are one of the league's weaker attacks overall.
This is the point where I like to evaluate the flex spot. We have $5,700 left, and I'm spotting David Texeira (or Tesho Akindele if he starts instead). While I've been fairly vocal about my disdain for Texeira, I love that he gets to play up top on a team that features Fabian Castillo and Mauro Diaz. Plenty of attention is drawn away from him, and he simply needs to find a pocket of space and display decent finishing ability, as he did last week against Orlando City. He's a great flex spot bet to score against a depleted D.C. United defense this week. Now remember, I mentioned I like to evaluate the potential of upgrading the flex at another spot's expense. If you want to replace Nguyen to a Thomas, Tommy McNamara or Pedro Ribeiro, then plenty more forward options become available. I think both approaches are valid options this week and encourage you to adjust as lineups get released.
Devil's Advocate: The biggest concern with this lineup for a tournament is that all of our players should be popular selections. Are we really going to rely on Texeira to be our sole differential? It's also fair to question if Morales and Nguyen are worth paying up for rather than going with a three-pronged expensive forward approach? We're also relying on Bendik in goal behind a defense that gave up four goals last week.
Why We'll Win: We've built a well-rounded lineup that doesn't depend on spending a boatload of cash on David Villa or Bradley Wright-Phillips playing road matches on turf. Our attacking players are all at home, which is an unplanned bonus, and all are against exploitable defenses. We are relying on Bendik, but many of our opponents will be too, and I trust that we'll spend the extra cash he affords us better than them.
Lineup No. 2: Tackling a Tournament
Both my biggest weakness and strength in daily fantasy is an itch to zig when others zag. I applaud players who dare to fade Giovinco, or who take a keeper expected to get barraged by shots. The logic is sound, though. Winning a tournament usually requires some bold moves to differentiate yourself from the pack. We're going to take our best shot at doing just that with this lineup.
First, let's dig in to the forwards. Giovinco should be as highly owned as any player on any slate this season. If there's even a 10 percent chance he puts up a pedestrian score then I think fading him could be a good calculated risk. We are potentially breaking away from 75 percent of the crowd with this one move. Earlier, I also highlighted Villa and BWP's away matches on turf. They should also get into their fair share of lineups, and while I love their talent, I'm not sure this is the best week to target them. Instead, I want the player that people don't quite view in this top tier: Fabian Castillo. The dynamic winger has four straight games of 13+ DraftKings points and gets to play a D.C. United team without their top keeper, top defender, top forward and potentially more. Attempting to keep up with Castillo's speed and aggression is difficult enough in ideal conditions, let alone in the Texas heat. I predict that few fantasy players will own Castillo this week, but he's in form and exactly the type of pick who could launch us towards the top.
Two other forwards with multi-goal potential catch my eye. Paying up for Dom Dwyer when others will grab Krisztian Nemeth is a move I like. He has four goals in his past seven appearances of at least 45 minutes. Montreal's Laurent Ciman is a fantastic center back, but his aggression can draw him out of position, and Dwyer's speed combined with Benny Feilhaber's playmaking chops can certainly expose the entire Impact back line. Fanendo Adi is my choice for our third forward, and let me emphasize that he should be placed in the flex spot. Portland is the last match of the night, and we want to be able to maximize our options should Adi surprisingly not enter the lineup. This is a big match for Portland, hoping to bounce back from last week's loss to Philadelphia and also put up a good result for the Cascadia Cup standings. Vancouver are weak in the defense, with Kendall Waston heading to the Gold Cup, Pa Modou Kah carrying a bit of an injury, and Diego Rodriguez not being in the best form. The Timbers recently shelled out $5 million for a forward, and Adi will want to make his claim for remaining a valuable fixture in the attack. The towering forward already has three multi-goal games this season despite manager Caleb Porter's constant lineup rotation, and he makes for an ideal tournament play against a Whitecaps team at less than full strength.
Our budget could use some relief, and thankfully the midfield options present quite a few possibilities. I'm looking to Orlando City's Pedro Ribeiro ($5,200) and Seattle's Thomas ($3,500). Ribeiro had a goal unjustly disallowed last week for offsides, and he also drew a penalty. This week, he gets Kaka back and Orlando need a strong result at home. I think the Lions come out firing. Thomas has been underwhelming along with the rest of Seattle's attack sans Clint Dempsey (international duty) and Obafemi Martins (groin). This week, however, they get Marco Pappa back from the Gold Cup. The Colorado Rapids have strung together a pair of victories, but I'm not buying into the mirage. On the road in Seattle is not an ideal fixture for the Rapids, and Seattle is another team desperate to get back on track. Personal favorite Tommy McNamara ($4,600) is also a good option should be start, as well as Zach Pfeffer ($3,900), Cristian Techera ($3,900) and Michael Barrios ($3,500).
I've left more room than usual for our back line. This is because I want to once again swerve from the popular play in goal. Bendik and Josh Saunders should be very popular cheap plays, but my favorite clean sheet picks are Dan Kennedy and Tim Melia. I'm torn between the two, but will side with Melia, who I think has a better defense in front of him. Kennedy and Dallas have kept three straight clean sheets, though, so I think you can't go wrong either way. For our defenders, I'm tabbing Iraola once again for the cheap attacking potential he provides. Finally, I'm looking to Alvas Powell, who returns from a weird Gold Cup adventure with Jamaica. Portland really rely on him to jump into the attack and will be excited to get him back in the mix.
Devil's Advocate: There's being different and then being absurdly different. Do we really need to shoot for this many differentials when one or two could be enough to set us apart from our opponents? Paying $800 more for Giovinco rather than Castillo almost makes too much sense, rather than spending $4,100 on a defender. Melia and Kennedy are great picks, but we're paying $2,000 more for a goalie than many opponents will.
Why We'll Win: If our midfielders can keep up with the higher priced options, we should be in for a good day. Our back three are among the best options at any price and our forwards all are proven scorers. Fading the pricey forwards is a bold move, but one that could pay large dividends should at least two of our less-popular three pan out. In particular, they each have match ups that appear promising and the talent to pull off multi-goal games against any opponent.
