This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It's been two months since the final day of the Champions League group stage, but now it's time for the Round of 16. The knockout stage kicks off with RB Leipzig hosting Real Madrid and Copenhagen home against Manchester City on Tuesday, while Lazio take on Bayern Munich and PSG clash with Real Sociedad on Wednesday.
UCL Best Bets for Tuesday, Feb. 13
Phil Foden 3 or More Shots (-110) against Copenhagen
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There isn't a lot of value to be had in the Man City and Copenhagen matchup, with the defending champions roughly -425 and over 2.5 at -165. You could look at the spread at -1.5, but you are still giving up a decent amount of juice here at -145, so you'll have to get creative with trying to find some value.
I considered moving the spread to -2.5 (+175), which is in play, but instead landed on Foden to have three or more shots at -110. In his last six outings, Foden has managed to hit that mark all but once, including taking six-plus shots in three of those contests. The biggest risk would be Foden not starting, which he didn't for City's last UCL clash but that was also a meaningless game for the Citizens. Of course, you'd also get your money back if he didn't start. For a bigger payout, Foden to have four or more shots returns +240 but obviously comes with more risk.
Benjamin Sesko anytime goalscorer against Real Madrid +250
While the other match could be one sided, the lines indicate Leipzig and Real Madrid to be a toss-up, with Madrid slightly favored at +130 to Leipzig's +200.
There will be no Jude Bellingham due to an ankle injury, so it will fall to Joselu, Vinicius Junior or Rodrygo to step up offensively. Taking them to score offers good value with Joselu returning the most value at +160. On the flip side, Lois Openda is riding a four-match goal streak and brings back +150 odds, which is somewhat overshadowing the fact that Sesko is also on a three-match run of goals.
Really, any of these goal-scoring options are in play, which makes the over 2.5 goals an interesting play at -175, especially if you are willing to move up to over 3.5 at +145.
UCL Best Bets for Wednesday, Feb. 14
Lazio draw no bet against Bayern Munich +280
Bayern Munich may be the favorite at -150, but they're coming into this matchup having suffered a disappointing 3-0 loss to Bayer Leverkusen on Saturday. They've been dealing with a number of injuries, including January addition Bryan Zaragoza, who is back at training after picking up an illness.
Lazio haven't performed significantly better this season as a mid-table Serie A side but are playing at home, which could give them a competitive edge. I think it's possible that a draw is on the table, so I want to look at the Draw No Bet options and take Lazio +280 to pull off the upset. This means if it does finish in a draw, you get your money back. At +120 you can also take Lazio double chance, which would allow you to win the bet, albeit at worse odds. If you want more value, you could turn to the moneyline and get +425 on the Italian side.
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PSG to beat Real Sociedad (-155)
The Parisians are playing inside the Parc des Princes and haven't lost a game since a Champions League clash with Milan back in November. The squad could be bolstered by the addition of Kang-In Lee, who is back from international duty with South Korea.
Meanwhile, Real Sociedad haven't scored a goal in four consecutive matches and are sitting outside of the European places in La Liga.
All of that makes it a little surprising that PSG are only -155 on the moneyline, which is decent value even if you have to give up a little juice. An alternative option would be to take 'No' on both teams to score (-105) with a goal coming from Real Sociedad seeming unlikely at this point. Then again, if you believe in PSG, taking them to win to nil at +165 may be the smarter option.
UCL Betting Picks Round of 16
- Phil Foden 3 or More Shots (-110) against Copenhagen
- Benjamin Sesko anytime goalscorer against Real Madrid +250
- Lazio draw no bet against Bayern Munich +280
- PSG to beat Real Sociedad (-155)
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