This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Credit One NASCAR AMEX Credit Card 300
Location: Homestead, Florida
Course: Homestead-Miami Speedway
Format: Oval
Laps: 200
NASCAR Xfinity AMEX Credit Card 300
AJ Allmendinger picked a heck of a time to notch his first win of the season in Las Vegas, which is arguably one of the most coveted races to do so. He's now locked himself into the Championship 4 race at Phoenix Raceway on Nov. 9 and can turn his focus to that race. After dominating most of the regular season, Austin Hill finds himself below the cutline with two races remaining. It's a tiny margin (-7) but still illustrates how quickly things can change in this format.
Surveying the rest of the playoff field, Justin Allgaier (+32) has to feel good about his chances to reach Phoenix with a chance for the championship, he's far from a lock. In the opposite direction, Sammy Smith is the only driver that's likely to be in "must-win" territory, but Sam Mayer (-23) and Jesse Love (-13) are the other two drivers currently below the cut line.
Key Stats at Homestead-Miami Speedway
- Number of Races: 30
- Winners from Pole: 5
- Winners from Top Five: 16
- Winners from Top 10: 21
Previous Winners at the Homestead-Miami Speedway
2023 – Sam Mayer
2022 – Noah Gragson
2021 – Myatt Snider
2020- Chase Briscoe
2020- Harrison Burton
2019- Tyler Reddick
2018- Tyler Reddick
2017- Cole Custer
2016- Daniel Suarez
2015- Kyle Larson
If you watch either the Truck, Xfinity or Cup Series race this weekend, there will be a lot of discussion about riding the wall and you'll drivers taking a line literally within inches of the wall at Homestead. This is the optimal line both for speed and tire wear, but brings the obvious risk of misjudging a turn even slightly and damaging the car. Given the point of the season that this race is occurring, we can expect drivers to try to take every inch they can and quite likely make a mistake. That's particularly trye late in runs as tires wear.
Another interesting note is the finishing trends at the track. Of the last four races, none of the winners came from, with the starting positions instead being nine,10 and 13. Good track position is obviously preferred, but not required.
NASCAR Xfinity DFS Tools
DraftKings Values for the Credit One NASCAR AMEX Credit Card 300
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Cole Custer - $10,800
Sam Mayer - $10,000
AJ Allmendinger - $9,700
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Chandler Smith - $9,500
Austin Hill - $9,300
Connor Zilisch - $9,000
Riley Herbst - $8,900
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Sammy Smith - $8,500
Jesse Love - $8,300
Parker Kligerman - $8,000
DraftKings Tier 4 Values
Parker Retzlaff- $6,800
Jeb Burton - $6,300
Brennan Poole – 5,800
NASCAR Xfinity Picks for the Credit One NASCAR AMEX Credit Card 300
Cole Custer - $10,800
Sam Mayer - $10,000
Connor Zilisch - $9,000
Parker Kligerman - $8,000
Jeb Burton -$6,300
Brennan Poole- $5.800
A combination of the typical way this race plays out, pricing and track history dictates that this a good week for a lineup construction resembling a stars and scrubs build. Both Cole Custer and Sam Mayer are strong options from Tier 1. In five races at Homestead, Custer has finished either first or second three times. He qualified fourth on Friday and should be in for another good weekend. Mayer has two career races at Homestead, with finishes of fifth and first. He qualified ninth, which is good enough to win. Because this race doesn't mean all that much to Allmendinger I'd stay away. He has a strong track history, which is why he is listed in Tier 1.
With two drivers rostered in Tier 1, we don't have much budget for Tier 2 drivers, there is a strong case to shift away from Mayer to Austin Hill or Chandler Smith. Hill has more mediocre finishes than the drivers highlighted in Tier 1, but he has a very strong 111.7 driver rating in his two races at Homestead. Smith is sitting on pole, which should be noted. Zilisch is the choice now primarily based on roster construction, but he has been impressive in his cameos in the Xfinity Series and will be ramping up for a full-time seat in 2025.
Kligerman remains a steady hand for a lineup. He has mediocre results and is a good bet to never bottom out. Smith and Love have more limited experience, at the track but have clearly proven themselves as drivers in the series. I'd have a slight lean toward Smith, but all three of the drivers in Tier 3 have appeal.
There are also several punt plays available. Poole is my top choice among them, as he's shown the ability to move up through the field in his past races at Homestead and has a decent starting position for Saturday's race (19) relative to cost.
