Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Winnipeg
DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Winnipeg card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
Top UFC Winnipeg Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 107-34-1
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Malott
Fanduel Captain: Malott/Jasudavicius
Gilbert Burns (22-9-0) v. Mike Malott (13-2-1)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-9 (6 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Veteran with elite grappling and finishing ability
- Durability and recent form are major concerns with multiple losses in a row
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-2-1 (5 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Well-rounded with finishing ability on both the feet and the mat
- Younger, more physical, and trending in the right direction
DFS Perspective:
Burns is on a four-fight losing streak and nearing 40, which makes it tough to trust him here. Malott should be the superior fighter at this stage and likely won't face much resistance if he fights to his strengths. Malott profiles as a strong play with finishing upside.
UFC Winnipeg Pick: Malott
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Kyler Phillips (12-4-0) v. Charles Jourdain (17-8-1)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-4 (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Athletic and well-rounded with strong grappling upside
- Most effective when mixing in takedowns and controlling positions
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 17-8-1 (8 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Dynamic striker with finishing ability and high activity
- Dangerous in scrambles but can be controlled by strong grapplers
DFS Perspective:
Phillips has dropped two in a row, but I still think he's the better fighter here, especially on the mat. I expect him to look for takedowns early and often and control where this fight takes place. If he's able to do that consistently, he should be able to dictate this fight. Phillips profiles as the preferred side with a strong grappling-based path.
UFC Winnipeg Pick: Phillips
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Mandel Nallo (14-3-0) v. Jai Herbert (13-6-1)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-3 (8 KO/TKO, 6 submission)
- Aggressive striker who likes to push pace and create exchanges
- Most effective when turning fights into high-action battles
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-6-1 (9 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Tall, rangy striker who prefers to work at distance
- Dangerous power but can be vulnerable in chaotic exchanges
DFS Perspective:
I expect Nallo to push the pace here and turn this into more of a firefight. Both guys have knockout power, and either could get the finish, but Nallo is the side. If he's able to force exchanges and keep the pressure on, he can create the better moments. Nallo profiles as the preferred play in a high-upside fight.
UFC Winnipeg Pick: Nallo
Jasmine Jasudavicius (14-4-0) v. Karine Silva (19-6-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-4 (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Strong wrestler with excellent control and ability to dictate where fights take place
- Most effective when chaining takedowns and maintaining top position
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 19-6 (8 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Dangerous finisher with threats both on the feet and the mat
- Has shown vulnerability when controlled for extended periods
DFS Perspective:
Silva has been controlled too much in her last couple fights to feel comfortable backing her here. Jasudavicius should be able to land multiple takedowns and rack up control time throughout. Silva is dangerous everywhere and can create moments, but Jasudavicius profiles as the preferred side with a strong grappling-based scoring path.
UFC Winnipeg Pick: Jasudavicius
Thiago Moises (19-9-0) v. Gauge Young (10-3-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-9 (4 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Well-rounded with a strong grappling base and submission ability
- Most effective when he can slow fights down and work on the mat
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-3 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Well-rounded with finishing ability on the feet and solid grappling
- Brings more versatility with multiple paths to win
DFS Perspective:
This is a tight matchup, and I can see it going either way. Moises has the grappling edge, but Young has more ways to win this fight overall. If he's able to keep this mixed or on the feet, he can create the better moments. Young profiles as the preferred side in a competitive fight.
UFC Winnipeg Pick: Young
Dennis Buzukja (12-5-0) v. Marcio Barbosa (17-2-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 12-5 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Tough, pressure-based fighter who looks to push pace and create volume
- Durable, but can get hit in exchanges when fights get chaotic
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-2 (14 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Powerful striker with strong finishing ability, especially early
- Dangerous when he can create chaos and land heavy shots
DFS Perspective:
This should be an action-packed fight. Buzukja will bring pressure, but that could play right into Barbosa's power. If Barbosa is able to land clean early, this likely ends in a knockout. Barbosa profiles as a strong play with early finish upside.
UFC Winnipeg Pick: Barbosa
Robert Valentin (10-6-0) v. Julien Leblanc (10-2-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-6 (3 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Well-rounded with finishing ability, but has not faced high-level competition
- Can be inconsistent when fights extend
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-2 (4 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Balanced skill set with the ability to mix in striking and grappling
- Benefits from homefield advantage and should be comfortable in this spot
DFS Perspective:
Neither guy has an overly impressive resume, and this feels like a true toss-up. I could see this going either way, but I'll lean Leblanc with the homefield advantage. In a close fight like this, that edge can matter. Leblanc profiles as a slight lean in a low-confidence matchup.
UFC Winnipeg Pick: Leblanc
Tanner Boser (22-10-1) v. Gokhan Saricam (11-2-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-10-1 (12 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Volume-based striker with solid movement for a heavyweight
- Can be hittable and has shown durability concerns in exchanges
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-2 (8 KO/TKO)
- Heavy-handed striker with fast hands and knockout power
- Looks to end fights early and thrives in striking exchanges
DFS Perspective:
This is a great fight to target on both sides, as someone is likely to get knocked out. Boser will bring volume, but Saricam appears to have the better chin and faster hands. If he lands clean, he can end this early. Saricam profiles as the preferred side in a high-upside finish spot.
UFC Winnipeg Pick: Saricam
Melissa Croden (7-3-0) v. Daria Zheleznyakova (10-2-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-3 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Grappling-focused fighter with solid takedowns and control
- Most effective when she can get fights to the mat and dictate position
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-2 (5 KO/TKO)
- Striker with power who prefers to keep fights standing
- Can struggle when forced into grappling exchanges
DFS Perspective:
Croden's ground game should be the difference here. If she's able to land takedowns and control positions, she can dictate this fight. Zhelezniakova is dangerous on the feet, but Croden profiles as the preferred side with a clear grappling path.
UFC Winnipeg Pick: Croden
JJ Aldrich (14-7-0) v. Jamey-Lyn Horth (9-2-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14-7 (3 KO/TKO)
- Technical striker who fights at a steady pace and manages distance well
- Relies on volume and clean striking to win rounds
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-2 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Physical fighter who looks to push pace and mix in clinch work
- Most effective when she can close distance and make fights gritty
DFS Perspective:
This should be a competitive fight. Aldrich will look to keep this at range and win with volume, while Horth will try to close distance and make it more physical. Could be a slower-paced decision, which limits DFS upside. My slight lean is to Aldrich, but she's not a strong target.
UFC Winnipeg Pick: Lyn-Horth
Mitch Raposo (10-3-0) v. Allan Nascimento (22-6-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 10-3 (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Grappling-based fighter who looks to mix in takedowns and control
- Can struggle when forced to strike at range
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-6 (1 KO/TKO, 16 submissions)
- Dangerous and well-rounded with strong striking and grappling
- Comfortable on the feet and capable of creating damage in exchanges
DFS Perspective:
Nascimento should have a field day on the feet in this matchup. If he's able to keep this standing, he can create consistent damage and control the fight. Raposo's path is through grappling, but if he can't secure takedowns, he could get outworked. Nascimento profiles as the preferred side with upside.
UFC Winnipeg Pick: Nascimento
John Castaneda (21-8-0) v. Mark Vologdin (12-4-1)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 21-8 (7 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Well-rounded with strong grappling and submission ability
- Has the ability to mix in takedowns and control fights on the mat
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-4-1 (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Striking-based fighter with power and solid fundamentals
- More comfortable keeping fights standing and working at range
DFS Perspective:
Castaneda makes for a solid dog pick here. The striking should be relatively even, but he has a clear edge on the mat. If he's able to mix in takedowns and control positions, he can dictate this fight. Castaneda profiles as a strong underdog play with a grappling-based path.
UFC Winnipeg Pick: Castaneda
Jamie Siraj (14-3-0) v. John Yannis (9-4-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-3 (4 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Grappling-focused fighter with strong submission ability
- Most effective when he can get fights to the mat and hunt finishes
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 9-4 (5 KO/TKO)
- Striker with power who prefers to keep fights standing
- Has shown issues with submission defense in past fights
DFS Perspective:
Siraj should have the edge on the mat, while Yannis will have the edge on the feet. Yannis has struggled with submission defense, which makes this a dangerous matchup for him. If Siraj can get this to the ground early, there is a strong chance he'll find a submission. Siraj profiles as a solid play with early finish upside.
UFC Winnipeg Pick: Siraj
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
