Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Vegas 115
DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 115 card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
Top UFC Vegas 115 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 88-29-0
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Yakhyaev
Fanduel Captain: Yakhyaev
Renato Moicano (20-7-1) v. Chris Duncan (15-2-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20-7-1 (2 KO/TKO, 10 submissions)
- High-level grappler with a strong submission game and proven experience
- Has faced the better level of competition and knows how to control fights
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-2 (7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Aggressive and dangerous, especially in brawls where he can land power
- More well-rounded than given credit for and capable of grappling when needed
DFS Perspective: I'm slightly on Moicano here due to the level of competition and his grappling edge. If he's able to control positions, he can take over this fight. That said, Duncan is a solid play as well. He can grapple if needed and is very dangerous in brawls where he can create big moments. This is a competitive fight with paths on both sides.
UFC Vegas 115 Pick: Moicano
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Virna Jandiroba (22-4-0) v. Tabatha Ricci (12-3-0)
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-4 (1 KO/TKO, 14 submissions)
- High-level BJJ specialist with relentless grappling pressure
- Most effective when controlling position and working toward submissions
- Height: 5'1" – Reach: 61" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-3 (2 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Well-rounded but primarily grappling-based with solid top control
- Can be outmuscled in grappling exchanges against stronger opponents
DFS Perspective: Jandiroba's path is very clear: impose her grappling and control where this fight takes place. I like her to be the more physical fighter here, which should allow her to win positions and rack up control time. Ricci is tough and capable, but if she's stuck on the bottom, the scoring adds up quickly. Jandiroba profiles as the preferred DFS play with a strong grappling-based scoring path.
UFC Vegas 115 Pick: Jandiroba
Tommy McMillen (9-0-0) v. Manolo Zecchini (11-4-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-0 (3 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Physical prospect with finishing ability, shows power and aggression early
- Still developing, but has shown he can capitalize when opponents make mistakes
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-4 (9 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Well-rounded on paper with finishing ability across multiple areas
- Major red flag with inactivity — only one fight in the last four years
DFS Perspective: McMillen's odds are way too wide here, but he's still the side. Zecchini's inactivity is a big concern, especially against a younger, more active fighter. McMillen should be the one pushing pace and creating the better moments. Not a must-play, but he profiles as the preferred option with upside if he finds a finish.
UFC Vegas 115 Pick: McMillen
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Robert Ruchala (11-2-0) v. Jose Delano (16-3-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 11-2 (3 KO/TKO,35 submissions)
- Well-rounded prospect who can mix striking and grappling effectively
- Comfortable pushing pace and chaining attacks together
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-3 (4 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Proven finisher with experience against higher-level competition
- Dangerous everywhere with the ability to capitalize in both striking and grappling exchanges
DFS Perspective: Both guys have similar skill sets and can win this fight in multiple ways, but I give the edge to Delano based on the level of competition. He's been in tougher fights and should be more comfortable in high-level exchanges. Ruchała is live, but Delano profiles as the preferred side with slightly more upside in a competitive matchup.
UFC Vegas 115 Pick: Delano
Rafael Estevam (14-0-0) v. Ethyn Ewing (9-2-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-0 (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Grappling-heavy fighter with strong control and positional dominance
- Most effective when imposing his will and slowing fights down on the mat
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-2 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Looked sharp in his debut with clean striking and confidence on the feet
- Prefers to keep fights standing where he can use his speed and power
DFS Perspective: Ewing looked great in his debut, but him being the favorite here is surprising. Estevam's path is very clear: close distance, impose his physicality, and turn this into a grappling match. If he's able to consistently get this to the mat, he should be able to control and rack up points. Ewing is dangerous on the feet, but Estevam profiles as a strong underdog play with a clear path to win.
UFC Vegas 115 Pick: Estevam
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (8-0-0) v. Brendson Ribeiro (17-9-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-0 (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Powerful finisher with a well-rounded skill set and strong physicality
- Dangerous early with the ability to overwhelm opponents quickly
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 81" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-9 (9 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Tall striker with power, prefers to keep fights at range
- Can struggle when pressured or forced into uncomfortable positions
DFS Perspective: Yakhyaev gets another easy ask here for his second UFC fight. He should be the one dictating the pace and creating the better moments throughout. Ribeiro has power, but if Yakhyaev closes distance and applies pressure, this could get one-sided quickly. Yakhyaev profiles as a strong play with clear finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 115 Pick: Yakhyaev
Hailey Cowan (7-4-0) v. Alice Pereira (5-1-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 7-4 (2 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Striking-based fighter who prefers to keep fights at range
- Can struggle when opponents close distance and apply pressure
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5-1 (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Aggressive striker with power, looks to push pace and create exchanges
- Fell flat in her debut, but showed flashes of finishing ability prior
DFS Perspective: It's tough to fully trust Pereira after her debut, but I expect a much different approach here. She should be the more aggressive fighter and look to push the pace early. Cowan will want to keep this at range, but if Pereira closes distance and forces exchanges, she can create real moments. Pereira profiles as the preferred side with upside if she comes in more aggressive.
UFC Vegas 115 Pick: Pereira
Alessandro Costa (14-5-0) v. Stewart Nicoll (8-2-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-5 (5 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Dangerous striker with speed and finishing ability
- Most effective when keeping fights standing and controlling range
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-2 (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Well-rounded with a grappling base, looks to mix in takedowns
- Needs to rely on wrestling to control fights against stronger strikers
DFS Perspective:
Unless Nicoll can find success with takedowns, this is Costa's fight to lose. On the feet, Costa should be the faster and more dangerous striker, capable of creating big moments. Nicoll's path is clear: get this to the mat, but if he can't, he's likely getting outworked. Costa profiles as the preferred side with upside if he keeps this standing.
UFC Vegas 115 Pick: Costa
Dione Barbosa (8-4-0) v. Melissa Gatto (9-2-2)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-4 (4 submissions)
- Physical grappler who looks to impose her strength with takedowns and control
- Most effective when she can dictate pace and keep opponents grounded
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-2-2 (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Well-rounded with solid grappling, but can be controlled by stronger opponents
- More comfortable when she can work in scrambles rather than being stuck underneath
DFS Perspective:
Gatto has shown she can struggle against more physical fighters, and this feels like a tough matchup for her. Barbosa's path is very clear: land takedowns and control where this fight takes place. If she's able to impose her strength, she should be able to rack up control time and limit Gatto's offense. Barbosa profiles as the preferred side with a strong grappling-based scoring path.
UFC Vegas 115 Pick: Barbosa
Azamat Bekoev (20-4-0) v. Tresean Gore (5-4-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20-4 (8 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Well-rounded fighter with a strong grappling base and finishing ability
- Looks to pressure and mix in takedowns to control fights
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 5-4 (1 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Athletic with power, dangerous early when he can find openings
- Limited experience and can struggle when fights extend or become grappling-heavy
DFS Perspective:
Bekoev's path is very clear: pressure, mix in takedowns, and control this fight. Gore is dangerous early and has finishing ability, but he's still low volume and inexperienced at this level. If Bekoev avoids big moments early, he should be able to take over as the fight goes on. Bekoev profiles as the preferred side with a strong path through grappling and control.
UFC Vegas 115 Pick: Bekoev
Thomas Petersen (10-4-0) v. Guilherme Pat (6-0-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-4 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Heavyweight with power and a willingness to mix in wrestling
- Best path comes from using size and mixing in takedowns to control
- Height: 6'6" – Reach: 81" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 6-0 (4 KO/TKO)
- Aggressive striker with power, looks to create chaos early
- Did not look great in his debut and can be vulnerable if forced to grapple
DFS Perspective:
I'm going to take a stab on Petersen here. I didn't like what I saw from Pat in his debut, and this feels like a spot where Petersen can have success if he mixes in takedowns. If he's able to control positions, he can slow this fight down and rack up points. Petersen profiles as a solid underdog play with a path through wrestling and control.
UFC Vegas 115 Pick: Petersen
Lando Vannata (12-7-2) v. Darrius Flowers (12-8-1)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-7-2 (4 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Creative striker with experience and a well-rounded skill set
- Has shown the ability to mix things up and win minutes across different phases
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-8-1 (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Aggressive and powerful, looks to create chaos early
- Can be sloppy and tends to slow down if he doesn't find success early
DFS Perspective:
I don't think much of either guy here, but I expect Vannata to be the better fighter overall. He should be the more composed and technical fighter, which could allow him to win minutes throughout the fight. Flowers is dangerous early, but if this extends, it likely favors Vannata. Not a great DFS fight, but Vannata profiles as the preferred side.
UFC Vegas 115 Pick: Vannata
Dakota Hope (11-1-0) v. Kai Kamaka (17-7-1)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-1 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Making his debut with clear power and finishing ability
- Most dangerous when he can land big shots and create moments early
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-7-1 (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Returning to the UFC but has stayed active, competing in other promotions
- Relies on volume and pace to win rounds rather than finishing
DFS Perspective:
This feels like a close fight. Hope should have the edge in power and ability to create bigger moments, while Kamaka likely has the edge in volume and activity. Kamaka staying active is a plus, and his pace could make this competitive over 15 minutes. Not a great DFS spot, but both sides have paths depending on how the fight plays out.
UFC Vegas 115 Pick: Kamaka
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
