Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Seattle
DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Seattle card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
Top UFC Seattle Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 78-26-0
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Barber
Fanduel Captain: Barber/Douglas
Israel Adesanya (24-5-0) v. Joe Pyfer (15-3-0)
DFS Perspective: Pyfer is a very intriguing play in this matchup. While Adesanya still holds the striking edge in a pure kickboxing fight, his recent decline in activity and pace opens the door. Pyfer's ability to mix in grappling and bring physical pressure gives him a clear path to victory, especially if he chooses to take the fight to the mat. If he implements that game plan, he could control long stretches and rack up strong DFS scoring. Pyfer profiles as a high-upside play with multiple paths, while Adesanya carries more uncertainty than usual.
UFC Seattle Pick: Pyfer
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Alexa Grasso (16-5-1) v. Maycee Barber (15-2-0)
DFS Perspective: Barber's physicality and pressure should be the deciding factors in this matchup. While Grasso has the cleaner striking, Barber's ability to close distance, mix in grappling, and impose her strength gives her a clear path to controlling rounds. If Barber pushes a high pace and forces clinch and wrestling exchanges, she can rack up steady DFS scoring. Barber profiles as the preferred DFS play with a strong floor and control-based upside.
UFC Seattle Pick: Barber
Michael Chiesa (19-7-0) v. Niko Price (16-10-0)
DFS Perspective: Price simply cannot be trusted in this spot. While he always carries chaos and knockout upside, his inconsistency and lack of structure make him a risky play. Chiesa's grappling gives him a very clear path to control this fight through takedowns and positional dominance. If Chiesa sticks to a wrestling-heavy approach, he should be able to neutralize Price and rack up steady DFS scoring. Chiesa profiles as the preferred DFS play with a strong floor and control-based upside.
UFC Seattle Pick: Chiesa
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Julian Erosa (31-12-0) v. Lerryan Douglas (13-5-0)
DFS Perspective: This is a very tough matchup for Erosa. While he is always dangerous and capable of finishing fights himself, his defensive issues and tendency to absorb damage make him vulnerable here. Douglas' power and aggression give him a strong chance to capitalize on those openings and find a finish. Douglas profiles as a high-upside DFS play with real knockout potential in a fight that should not require much time to produce a result.
UFC Seattle Pick: Douglas
Mansur Abdul-Malik (9-0-1) v. Yousri Belagaroui (9-3-0)
DFS Perspective: Belgaroui is the more polished striker in this matchup and should have the advantage if the fight stays on the feet. The key question is whether Abdul-Malik can impose his grappling, but if Belgaroui's takedown defense holds up, he should be able to control the fight at range and land the cleaner, more effective shots. Belgaroui profiles as the preferred DFS play with striking-based upside and the potential to separate if he avoids extended grappling exchanges.
UFC Seattle Pick: Belgaroui
Terrance McKinney (17-8-0) v. Kyle Nelson (17-6-1)
DFS Perspective: McKinney is one of the most dangerous early fighters on the slate and has a strong chance to end this quickly. His explosive style and finishing ability give him a clear path to an early knockout or submission. Nelson's durability could extend the fight, but if McKinney lands clean early, this could be over fast. McKinney profiles as a high-upside DFS play with strong first-round finish equity.
UFC Seattle Pick: McKinney
Ignacio Bahamondes (17-6-0) v. Tofiq Musayev (22-6-0)
DFS Perspective: This is a great spot for Bahamondes to get back on track. His length, striking diversity, and ability to manage distance should give him a clear edge against a more compact, power-focused opponent. Musayev is always dangerous early, but Bahamondes' ability to control range and pile up volume creates a strong DFS path. Bahamondes profiles as the preferred DFS play with both scoring volume and finishing upside.
UFC Seattle Pick: Bahamondes
Chase Hooper (16-4-1) v. Lance Gibson Jr. (9-2-0)
DFS Perspective: This sets up as another get-right spot for Hooper. If he's able to take this fight to the mat, he could have a field day with control time, advances, and submission attempts. Gibson Jr. has athleticism and striking ability, but the grappling gap is significant. Hooper profiles as a strong DFS play with one of the clearer paths to a high score through dominant grappling and potential submission upside.
UFC Seattle Pick: Hooper
Marcin Tybura (27-10-0) v. Tyrell Fortune (17-3-0)
DFS Perspective: Tybura's experience and well-rounded game make him competitive, but his age is a real concern in this matchup. Fortune is definitely a risk given his inconsistency, but his athleticism and wrestling give him a legitimate path to pull off the upset. If Fortune can push pace and mix in takedowns, he could control stretches of this fight. He profiles as a volatile but interesting DFS tournament play with upset potential.
UFC Seattle Pick: Fortune
Casey O'Neil (10-2-0) v. Gabriella Fernandes (11-3-0)
DFS Perspective: O'Neill's ability to maintain pace and avoid being controlled should allow her to dictate where this fight takes place. If she keeps the fight standing and defends takedowns, she can outwork Fernandes over three rounds and secure a decision. While Fernandes has a path through grappling, O'Neill profiles as the preferred DFS side with volume-based scoring, though the ceiling may be moderate without a finish.
UFC Seattle Pick: O'Neil
Navajo Stirling (8-0-0) v. Bruno Lopes (14-2-0)
DFS Perspective: Stirling's composure and more complete skill set give him the edge in this matchup. Lopes has power and aggression, but unless he shows improved fight IQ, it's difficult to see him consistently making the right decisions against a disciplined opponent. Stirling should be able to control the fight and capitalize on openings. He profiles as the preferred DFS play with solid win equity and potential upside if Lopes makes mistakes.
UFC Seattle Pick: Stirling
Ricky Simon (22-7-0) v. Adrian Yanez (17-6-0)
DFS Perspective: This is a tight, high-level matchup with clear paths on both sides. Simon likely wins if he commits to his wrestling and controls the fight through takedowns and top position. Yanez, however, is always live with his precise striking and knockout ability, especially if he can keep the fight standing. Simon offers the safer DFS path through control and volume, while Yanez provides higher-variance knockout upside for tournaments.
UFC Seattle Pick: Simon
Alexia Thainara (13-1-0) v. Bruna Brasil (11-6-1)
DFS Perspective: Thainara's path is very clear -- implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and control the fight. If she's able to consistently secure takedowns, she should be able to neutralize Brasil's striking and rack up DFS points through control time and positional dominance. Brasil has power and could create moments on the feet, but Thainara profiles as the preferred DFS play with a strong grappling-based scoring path.
UFC Seattle Pick: Thainara
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
