UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Vegas 114 - Emmett vs Vallejos
The UFC returns to the Apex for a card stuffed with matchups for us to consider. We'll break down every fight on the 14-bout slate, including a slick boxer positioned as a significant underdog, and a submission expert looking to snatch another neck. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Piera Rodriguez ($8,400)
We open with yet another rematch between fighters who have recently fought in the organization, forcing me to wonder if the UFC matchmakers are forgetting which fights have already happened. While Sam Hughes is on a three-fight win streak, it has been less than four years since Rodriguez took a comprehensive decision from "Sampage," in which she banked five takedowns and landed 83 significant strikes. Hughes showed great scrambling ability in that matchup, but she has historically found it tough to win when her opponent controls the wrestling exchanges.
Hecher Sosa ($8,600)
Sosa should be able to use his aggressiveness and wrestling to put up a big score at this price, as Luan Lacerda is content to hang back and hit his opponents with big counter shots. It must be noted here that the Brazilian is an opportunistic grappler in scrambles, so a sprinkle on his submission prop (+650) is worth some consideration.
Bia Mesquita ($9,500)
This feels like an easy read, as so much of Montserrat Rendon's success hinges on her wrestling. She may be competent enough to avoid being submitted on the ground by the BJJ ace but expect Mesquita to pile up the points with takedowns, ground and pound, and control time.
Eryk Anders ($7,900)
Athleticism and power should be enough to take this home for Anders, as every part of Brad Tavares's game seems to be falling apart. Once lauded for his durability, the Hawian fighter has been TKO'd in two of his last four fights and seems more hesitant than ever to pull the trigger. Anders appears to be on the back end of his career as well, but he is still able to take the fight to his opponent.
Elijah Smith ($8,500)
Smith's game is pure power, which includes his wrestling. Su Young You fights in a style that yields ground to his opponents, and Smith is not the kind of fighter you want to let dictate terms. We have seen Smith get tired in fights before, but it's difficult to expect fatigue if he is able to fight at his own tempo.
Ion Cutelaba ($7,400)
Oumar Sy looked lost when he was unable to get his wrestling game going against Alonzo Menifield, squeaking by with a decision victory on the strength of just 34 significant strikes. Wrestling hasn't often been the path to beat Cutelaba, as he hasn't been taken down more than twice in a fight since 2018. "The Hulk" is perpetually aggressive and should be able to get out ahead of his French counterpart.
Vitor Petrino ($9,000)
My Read on Steven Asplund hasn't changed since picking against him as a favorite in his UFC debut. While his strong boxing was on display, Sean Sharaf didn't do much to test his wrestling defense, which left a lot to be desired on the regional scene. Petrino's strength will play just fine at heavyweight, and I see him as a sneaky option to score points as a decent favorite.
Bruno Silva ($7,500)
I have sung the praises of Charles Johnson in the past, but it is impossible for me to trust him against a powerful and aggressive flyweight not even three months removed from a brutal KO at the hands of Alex Perez. Silva will mix his targets and can do a bit of everything in the cage. I expect him to simply overwhelm Johnson, who generally needs to work his way into fights.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on Prize Picks
Marwan Rahiki OVER 38.5 Significant Strikes, Andre Fili UNDER 27.5 Significant Strikes, and Josh Emmett UNDER 40.5 Significant Strikes
Harry Hardwick got his legs blasted apart in his UFC debut, but Rahiki doesn't throw many kicks, focusing instead on his boxing game. Harwick will be in the debutant's face from the opening bell, which should generate more than enough action to clear this total.
The KO/TKO line for Jose Delgado is a little thin (+114), but we should be able to easily incorporate that logic here, as Fili spends far too much time admiring his work in the pocket. Against someone with an identical height and reach, I don't expect "Touchy" to keep himself safe, and it's far too much to hope that he will be able to stand up to such explosive power shots.
Emmett seems to know that his durability is failing him, as he secured four takedowns in his fight against Lerone Murphy, landing just 41 significant strikes across five rounds. I expect a similar path for "CC0" this time around, as he will not want to strike with someone as fast as Kevin Vallejos. If he can avoid being knocked out, I expect that Emmett will prioritize defense in this one.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like DraftKings Pick6? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Manoel Sousa and Bolaji Oki Fight Goes to Decision (+130)
Sousa hits incredibly hard and can throw in combination, but we have seen him get frozen at range for long stretches of time. This should be exacerbated by Oki's wrestling threat and his three-inch reach advantage. While any one big shot could spell the end for Oki, I like him to manage range and turn this into a slow kickboxing match with wrestling mixed in.
Gillian Robertson wins via Submission (+320)
The movement and athleticism of Amanda Lemos may give Robertson problems initially, but "The Savage" seems to have finally turned a corner on her striking, as she can work behind a jab and corral opponents to the side of the Octagon with her footwork. Lemos will still be the superior kickboxer here, but we can't forget that she was controlled for a whopping 9:34 in her fight with Tatiana Suarez in September and was submitted by Virna Jandiroba in July 2024.
Chris Curtis (+240)
I don't quite understand the width of this line, as Myktybek Orolbai's only real experience at welterweight is a quick knockout against an aging out Jack Hermansson. Curtis has always been difficult to take down (82 percent defense rate) and will be the best boxer Orolbai has faced by a country mile. He has also been knocked out just twice in 44 career MMA bouts.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 114 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
