UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Vegas 113 - Bautista vs Oliveira
The UFC returns to the Apex for a 13-fight card with some deceptively intriguing matchups. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, including a veteran who may not be such a stepping stone, and a soft-fisted kickboxer who looks to have a shot at a knockout. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Farid Basharat ($9,000)
Jean Matsumoto can look good when he gets rolling downhill, but Basharat will be able to manage distance and set up attacks with his jab before testing his opponent's 53 percent takedown defense rate. It's also worth noting that Basharat will have a three-inch reach advantage and should be able to time counter shots as Matsumoto tries to close the distance.
Kyoji Horiguchi ($9,300)
Horiguchi is my pick to be flyweight champion at the end of the year, and he gets what should be a comfortable first step in Amir Albazi. While he can do a bit of everything in the cage, he is too comfortable ceding space in the Octagon. This will give Horiguchi ample time to pick his shots, using his speed to frustrate "The Prince" along the way.
Jailton Almeida ($8,500)
It's not often we talk about ceiling and floor in MMA DFS, but Almeida is such a strong wrestler that he is worth taking at this price just for the work he can do early in fights. We saw the Brazilian put up 61.6 points in a loss to Alexander Volkov due to a remarkable amount of inactivity while in top position. Rizvan Kuniev is a decent boxer and is difficult to take down, but the athleticism advantage here will be something to behold, making it hard to do anything but recommend Almeida.
Mario Bautista ($8,800)
Vinicius Oliveira's 4-0 start in the UFC feels like smoke and mirrors, as he typically drops the first round before wearing down opponents with his size and forward pressure. Bautista isn't a fighter who fades down the stretch, and Oliveira is unlikely to be able to fight hard for five rounds due to the massive amount of weight he cuts to reach the bantamweight limit.
Alex Morono ($6,600)
It's important to begin this recommendation by noting that Daniil Donchenko may just nuke Morono within the first two minutes, as the veteran has gotten slower and less durable with age. Donchenko fights with such abandon, however, that "The Great White" is likely to find success with his in-and-out movement and combinations as the fight wears on. Donchenko appeared to be fading in the first round right before knocking out Rodrigo Sezinando in his UFC debut, and Moreno should have the savvy to capitalize on a similar opportunity.
Muin Gafurov ($8,200)
As a strong grappler with power in his hands, Gafurov is in a nice spot against Jakub Wiklacz, who benefited in his UFC debut from whatever has happened to Patchy Mix. The Polish fighter has nice kicks but tends to use a guillotine as takedown defense. This should lead to a lot of time in top position for Gafurov, who has a lot of room to score at this price.
Javid Basharat ($8,300)
Basharat almost becomes a mandatory play at this price after Said Nurmagomedov was pulled from this bout on Thursday. His new opponent, Gianni Vazquez, looks like a decent boxer with an active guard on the ground, but he tends to get hit hard in the pocket. He can also be taken down easily, perhaps relying too much on his submissions from bottom position.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings - Pick6
Cong Wang UNDER 60.5 Significant Strikes, Nikolay Veretennikov OVER 36.5 Significant Strikes, and Ketlen Souza OVER 56.5 Significant Strikes
Wang and Eduarda Moura both fight at a frantic pace, with the latter looking to get the fight to the ground at every opportunity. The Brazilian blitzes into the pocket without much concern for defense, making this a spot where she could get knocked out if she can't get her grappling going. In either circumstance, significant strike totals should stay low.
Niko Price's reputation as a glass cannon may be slightly overstated, as he has only been knocked out once in the first round since 2018. He will come forward aggressively, however, which makes him a prime candidate to pile up strikes alongside Veretennikov.
Souza should get this done with activity alone, as she will be able to control the cage against Bruna Brasil, who is too comfortable on her back foot. I expect Brasil to struggle to get the fight to the ground, allowing Souza to pick her apart for three rounds.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like DraftKings Pick6? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props too
UFC Bets to Consider
Dustin Jacoby wins via KO/TKO (+175)
I don't anticipate that Julius Walker will be much of a factor at light heavyweight, as his style amounts to panic wrestling so he doesn't need to stand in space with his chin in the air. Jacoby has knocked out his last two opponents and has always been difficult to take down, having not been grounded more than once in a fight since 2021.
Michal Oleksiejczuk Wins via Rd. 1 KO/TKO (+128)
I rarely like getting this specific with plays, but it's easy to see a path here, as Marc-Andre Barriault plods after opponents with his chin in the air, and "Hussar" is one of the quickest fighters in the division. Expect Oleksiejczuk to sting "Powerbar" as he attempts to force the clinch. We should also note that Oleksiejczuk has won by first-round KO/TKO in each of his last two fights, while Barriault has been knocked out in the first frame in two of his last three losses.
Klaudia Sygula Wins via KO/TKO (+800)
It feels like Sygula just won this fight against Irina Alekseeva, as she allowed a wild, powerful striker to advance before using her footwork to punish the sloppy aggression. Priscila Cachoeira is a cleaner puncher than Alekseeva, but she isn't much better at cutting off the cage, which should allow the kickboxer to land strikes at will. While Sygula only has two KO/TKO wins in seven professional wins, it's important to remember that Joselyne Edwards only had one knockout win in eight UFC bouts before dramatically stopping Cachoeira in August, and Sygula will have a reach advantage of four inches. Edwards may be the more powerful fighter between the two, but the fight dynamics here will give Sygula a chance to cash a big ticket.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 113 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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