UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Vegas Seattle - Adesanya vs Pyfer
The UFC heads to Seattle for a 13-fight slate that includes some intriguing matchups. We'll break down every bout on the card, including a lightweight hoping to have a strong sophomore performance, and a whirlwind who always looks for the finish. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Tyrell Fortune ($8,300)
Marcin Tybura was knocked out by Ante Delija in September, and I don't expect him to have a much better time with the latest PFL import. Fortune is athletic for a heavyweight and is a strong wrestler. This should be more than enough to best Tybura, who will need to get by on his janky kickboxing.
Alexia Thainara ($9,600)
Bruna Brasil is a fluid striker with a lanky frame, but her 61 percent takedown defense suggests that her shorter opponents are able to easily find her hips. Thianara is a tireless wrestler and clinch fighter who should be able to pile up control time while looking for submissions here.
Casey O'Neill ($7,800)
The line on this fight deserves to be close, but I was slightly surprised to see O'Neil as the underdog, as Gabriella Fernandes will plant her feet to throw in the pocket, which leaves her vulnerable to takedown attempts. While "King" will probably never be an elite striker, she has started to work behind a jab of late, and sticking to basics will make her wrestling game even more effective.
Chase Hooper ($8,900)
This looks to be a get-right spot for Hooper after suffering a knockout loss to Alexander Hernandez in August. Lance Gibson is a strong wrestler, but he doesn't do enough in fights to take momentum from his opponents. This will allow Hooper to take the initiative from range before initiating grappling sequences.
Julian Erosa ($7,200)
I have Erosa pegged as a leverage pivot in GPPs, as I feel like most players will be on Lerryan Douglas following his brutal knockout on the Contender Series in September. While "Juicy J" could get dusted in a similar fashion, "Gunslinger" mainly throws one or two big strikes at a time, relying on his power to scare opponents into fighting at his tempo. Erosa is a veteran who knows how to use his range, and while he has been knocked out quickly in his career, we have also seen him withstand punishment. I believe this toughness will allow him to work his much more diversified offensive game, including wrestling attacks and strikes from the clinch.
Tofiq Musayev ($7,000)
I don't think Musayev's debut was a good opportunity to showcase his abilities, as some very good strikers have been smothered to death by Myktybek Orolbai. The Azeri fighter can grapple offensively, is agile, and throws hard, straight punches. Ignacio Bahamondes is a big, ferocious striker in his own right, but we have seen him struggle against athletic fighters in the past, and I expect Musayev will be able to land his strikes and escape cleanly from the pocket.
Michael Chiesa ($9,500)
I would have given Niko Price a shot as a massive underdog a few years ago, but "The Hybrid" looked incredibly shopworn in his knockout loss to Nikolay Veretennikov, and Chiesa is nothing if not big and durable. Scrambles on the ground will be interesting here, but I just can't pick Price to stay in a fight against someone who is actually less likely to let a fight slip away from him now than he was earlier in his career.
Maycee Barber ($8,800)
Barber looks to have reached a place in her development where she can feel comfortable striking at range, as well as using her grappling. This should be bad news for Alexa Grasso, who uses a meat-and-potatoes boxing attack to get on the inside. I expect Barber to control this fight wherever it goes, leaving me to wonder how Grasso will generate significant offense.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks
Joe Pyfer OVER 52.5 Significant Strikes, and Yousri Belgaroui UNDER 48.5 Significant Strikes
Pyfer, as the underdog, has a lower line than Israel Adesanya for significant strikes. Neither designation makes sense to me, as the former middleweight champion seems much more stationary these days, leaving openings for strikes at range. The pressure game of Pyfer should pay dividends here, while Adesanya's durability should carry us over this total.
Belgaroui's line seems too high against a fighter like Mansur Abdul-Malik, who will throw big, singular strikes before looking for clinch opportunities. This will likely either end in an early knockout or a lot of time spent tied up in the clinch.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Navajo Stirling and Bruno Lopes Fight Goes to Decision (+250)
The betting markets continue to expect Stirling to be the knockout artist we saw on the regional scene, despite the fact that he has seen the scorecards in all three of his UFC fights. The 28-year-old fights at an extremely measured pace and is an excellent judge of distance, which generally leads to opponents trying to figure out a way to safely get in striking range. Lopes can be reckless in his attack, but the Brazilian will likely be able to keep himself safe as he gets past Stirling's reach.
Terrance McKinney Wins via KO/TKO (+190)
I never expect this much juice on a knockout prop from McKinney, who fights as if he gets paid by the minute. It is particularly odd against Kyle Nelson, who has taken three of his six losses via KO/TKOs. Expect "T.Wrecks" to do what he always does: sprint across the cage when the bell sounds, throwing power punches and high-risk attacks.
Adrian Yanez (+120)
Yanez doesn't fit cleanly into any of the other categories, but I'll gladly take the plus money here. Ricky Simon, a very wooden striker, should not have much success wrestling an opponent with an 81 percent takedown defense rate. Yanez should pick Simon apart when he isn't digging for underhooks, which should lead to a clear victory.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC London. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section
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