The UFC heads to London for a card filled with exciting prospects, topped with a fight that will likely determine the next challenger for the featherweight crown. We'll break down each bout on the 14-fight slate, including a Muay Thai specialist at underdog odds, and a wrestler in a position to succeed. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Melissa Mullins ($8,000)
Wrestling is the only trick in Mullins's bag, but that should be enough against Luana Carolina, who stands upright and is constantly backing herself to the fence. "Dread" has been taken down at least twice in six of her last seven fights, giving Mullins a clear path to victory here.
Movsar Evloev ($8,900)
Lerone Murphy is one of the better game planners in the division, but all the proper reads in the world haven't improved his takedown defense rate, which stands at 51 percent. Evolev is a much better control grappler than either Josh Emmett or Aaron Pico, so it's hard for me to imagine that Murphy will have success scrambling once he gets to the ground.
Danny Silva ($7,400)
I tagged Silva as one to watch prior to his win over Lucas Almeida, and while he didn't get the job done against rising contender Kevin Vallejos, he holds the distinction of being competitive with the Chilean for three rounds. I expect Silva's body work and offensive wrestling to pay dividends against Kurtis Campbell, a karate stylist who tends to lean on his own grappling when he gets hit.
Mason Jones ($8,400)
Fans are in for a treat when Jones fights Axel Sola, as two offensively-minded prospects will look to put damage on each other for as long as the fight lasts. While Sola should have the speed advantage, his game seems a bit disjointed, relying on big, singular shots from range. By contrast, Jones marries his striking and grappling together, and should be able to close distance to get this fight where he wants it.
Nathaniel Wood ($7,500)
I was a bit surprised to see Wood as a moderate underdog against debutante Losene Keita, who has all the athletic talent in the world, but seems to lack fundamentals, such as the ability to cut off the cage. Wood tends to plant his feet in the Octagon, which will allow Kieta to find him, but "Black Panther" is wild in the pocket, and Wood has more than enough craft to make a fighter pay for their mistakes.
Mario Pinto ($9,700)
The heavyweight division is in rough shape, so one could be forgiven for not recognizing Pinto as a legitimate prospect. The Portuguese fighter has fast hands, knockout power, and can throw in combination. He has also shown us he can wrestle, taking down Jhonata Diniz three times during a KO/TKO win in October. This should be more than enough for Felipe Franco, who looks like your classic regional heavyweight getting by on physical gifts.
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady ($8,300)
Al-Selwady was dictating the tempo with his speed and wrestling before being caught in the third round against Loik Radzhabov, and the danger of being finished in one devastating sequence will be significantly lower against Shaqueme Rock, who likes to control fights with his own wrestling. I expect the Palestinian fighter to keep Rock off balance and control this fight over three rounds.
Iwo Baraniewski ($9,500)
Baraniewski can likely win any way he wants against Austen Lane, but the former football player does have decent speed for the division, as we saw when he gave Pinto problems in his UFC debut. While he is never one to shy away from a brawl, I expect the Polish fighter to finally show some of his Judo chops here, resulting in a one-sided victory.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings Pick6
Mantas Kondratavicius UNDER 19.5 Significant Strikes, Brando Pericic UNDER 36.5 Significant Strikes, and Christian Leroy Duncan OVER 49.5 Significant Strikes
Antonio Trocoli's only gear seems to be forward into his opponent, which has resulted in two lightning-quick losses in his last two outings. Kondratavicius looks like a prime prospect at middleweight, as he can manage distance and throw fluid combinations with devastating power. Unless the Italian has developed some new tools, I don't expect any surprises here.
Louie Sutherland's slow pace can only do so much to curtail Pericic, who will sprint across the cage and throw big strikes before smothering his opponent. The 31-year-old will make a mess of this fight sooner rather than later, which should end in a finish.
Duncan has the speed and technique to frustrate Roman Dolidze. This should be enough for us to exceed our total, as the Georgian fighter has never been knocked out in 19 professional fights. We saw how much damage Anthony Hernandez needed to put on Dolidze before getting a finish, and I doubt that Duncan will ever think about taking this fight to the ground.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like DraftKings Pick6? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Michael Page Wins via KO/TKO (+210)
In Sam Patterson, Page will finally get an opponent who is not afraid to strike with him at range. This will likely be to Patterson's detriment, as he doesn't move his head in the pocket, and will be far less agile than "MVP." Patterson is persistent and will chase knockouts, but we have only ever seen that lead to disaster for those sharing the cage with Page.
Shanelle Dyer Wins via KO/TKO (+390)
I'm a bit surprised to see so much juice on this line, as Ravena Oliveira plods along in the cage waiting for the next sequence, while Dyer immediately pressures her opponents and looks to unload big strikes. Dyer will have an advantage in every conceivable area of the fight and could get this done in short order.
Luke Riley Wins via KO/TKO (+265)
Michael Aswell has absorbed an ungodly 7.79 significant strikes per minute in his three UFC (and UFC-adjacent) fights. He also has no wrestling game to speak of, as he did not try to get the fight to the ground in any of those bouts. This spells bad news against Riley, who is a ferocious boxer with power in his hands. Aswell has the courage to exchange with Riley, which should result in "The Texas Kid" looking up at the lights.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC London. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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