UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC 328 - Chimaev vs. Strickland
The UFC heads to New Jersey for a numbered card featuring two title fights. We'll break down every bout across three platforms, including a long-toothed veteran who still finds ways to win, and a former champion being counted out by the oddsmakers. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Alexander Volkov ($8,600)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta has shot up the rankings during his three-fight knockout streak, but he faces a true veteran in Volkov, who will mix in his wrestling and carries a three-inch height advantage. We have seen "Drago" fade in the face of fighters who won't slow down, but the Russian will have too many ways to neutralize the offense of "Salsa Boy" while employing his own.
Sean Brady ($8,400)
This fight can only be picked one way for me, as Joaquin Buckley got taken down far too easily against an aging Kamaru Usman when the two fought in June, which led to a whopping 12:57 of control time for the former champion over three rounds. Brady is every bit the lockdown grappler that Usman was at his peak and is unquestionably the greater submission threat. The danger here is that Brady is breakable, having been stopped by strikes in bouts by both Michael Morales and Belal Muhammad. However, both those fighters presented roadblocks to Brady's wrestling that don't exist here.
Yaroslav Amosov ($8,500)
For all his success in the Octagon, it's tough to determine the actual skill level of Joel Alvarez. Much of his UFC career has been spent fighting opponents he towered over, which allowed him to control fights with his jab when he couldn't overwhelm with his grappling. Against Amosov, he will face a comparable grappler, who will come forward and put combinations together. Alvarez will still hold height and reach advantages here, but I consider this his first true test against someone who can approach his level in all areas.
Jim Miller $6,900
This pick isn't made with the greatest of confidence, but I'm having trouble with the line being so wide. While Miller will be the elder statesman in every matchup for as long as he continues to fight, Gordon is no spring chicken at 37 years of age. "A-10" has also absorbed 3.44 strikes per minute in the Octagon, considerably less than Gordon's 4.14. I expect this to be a firefight with takedowns mixed in, and I will give a slight lean to Miller, as he has only been knocked out twice in 57 professional MMA bouts.
Marco Tulio ($8,900)
Tulio gets an appropriate step down in competition after his knockout loss to Christian Leroy Duncan, as Roman Kopylov is a stationary fighter who often doesn't generate enough meaningful output to leverage his skill as a kickboxer. Tulio won't have to deal with anything like Duncan's range or athleticism, which should allow him to dictate terms here.
Clayton Carpenter ($7,400)
My praise of Carpenter hasn't aged particularly well of late, but I still think he can get good work done by applying pressure with his boxing and establishing top control. Jose Ochoa is a skilled and powerful striker, but he can often be caught waiting for the perfect shot. This should allow Carpenter to build a lead early.
Pat Sabatini ($9,000)
William Gomis needs to establish his kicking range to be successful, and Sabitini makes it his mission to collapse space as soon as the fight starts. While he holds a 72 percent takedown defense rate, Gomis has rarely faced a wrestler as strong or persistent as Sabitini, who will also throw combinations with considerable power.
Baisangur Susurkaev ($9,600)
Expect the Susurkaev train to keep rumbling downhill against Djorden Santos, who stands flatfooted in the pocket looking to work a slow-paced striking game. Susarkaev should score with takedowns at will and control this fight with his jab for as long as it lasts.
Ateba Gautier ($9,800)
A price this hefty for a knockout artist generally wouldn't go in the DraftKings section, but I think players have a decent chance at a Quick Win Bonus against Ozzy Diaz, who got melted in his first few exchanges with Zhang Mingyang before going to decision with the aforementioned Santos. Diaz won't turn down the brawl if it comes to him, which is a very poor strategy when fighting Gautier.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks
Tatsuro Taira UNDER 44.5 Significant Strikes, and King Green OVER 67.5 Significant Strikes
There is no universe in which Taira will be able to strike with Joshua Van for prolonged periods, which makes grappling his only real path to victory. I expect this fight to end before the score cards in binary fashion, with the man who gets the fight he wants overwhelming his opponent.
This line sets up nicely for Green, who will have a tremendous speed advantage over Jeremy Stephens and should see his looping, singular strikes coming from a mile away. "Lil Heathen" has been knocked out just three times in 51 professional MMA fights, meaning that Green should be able to tally up strikes until the final bell.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Mateusz Rebecki Wins via KO/TKO (+285)
This article series has successfully predicted knockout losses for Grant Dawson against King Green and Manuel Torres, and I am confident that Rabecki can give us the trifecta. It's no secret that Rebecki has heavy hands, but he has also never been soundly outwrestled in a fight, and keeps charging forward with such pressure that it will be difficult for Dawson to find opportunities to shoot. Dawson has landed a total of three significant strikes in his two stoppage losses, and I expect this one to have a similar trajectory.
Sean Strickland (+460)
I fully expect Khamzat Chimaev to have wrestling success early, but backers of the middleweight champion will be feeling the heat if he cannot put "Tarzan" away quickly. Strickland can be taken down, but he has always had a knack for getting back to his feet, as we saw when he yielded just 2:08 of control time on six takedowns in his first fight against Dricus Du Plessis. Chimaev's gas tank is an issue he has never solved, as he faced almost no adversity in his own fight with "DDP," and still had to take desperation shots to survive in Round 5. If Chimaev can't maintain composure when everything goes his way, I simply can't trust him to still be there against an opponent who will make him work.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 328. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section
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