UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC 325 - Volkanovski vs. Lopes
The UFC returns with its second numbered card in as many weeks, capped off by a featherweight title fight. We'll take a look at each bout on the 14-fight card, including an underdog looking for his second straight win, and a debutant with fire in his fists. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Benoit Saint-Denis ($9,200)
Power combined with suffocating pressure has worked wonders for Saint-Denis, allowing him to take fighters off their game plan from the opening bell. Dan Hooker has worked hard to improve his takedown defense, but he is too willing to put his back against the cage, which does not bode well for this matchup. It should be noted, however, that Hooker is a tricky striker who can use his length, and Saint-Denis doesn't have much depth if he is unable to overwhelm his opponent. Still, the fast start he is likely to have makes him the deserving play.
Cam Rowston ($9,300)
Rowston is in a great spot against Cody Brundage, who has survived in the organization via fortuitous disqualification victories and sloppy brawls in which he happened to come out on top. With a six-inch reach advantage and six submissions in 13 victories, it's difficult to see how Brundage will be able to work his way into the fight.
Jacob Malkoun ($8,600)
I'm betting on composure to win the day for Malkoun against Torrez Finney, who is incredibly athletic and powerful, but seems to not have much of a plan if he can't keep his opponent on the mat. I expect Malkoun to weather an early storm and take advantage of a tired Finney late, possibly resulting in a finish.
Jonathan Micallef ($8,400)
Oban Elliott's insistence on counter-fighting will do him no favors against Micallef, who will use his five-inch reach advantage to control the range and blast kicks. Elliott will wrestle, but he is nowhere near the submission grappler of "The Captain," which should make it hard for Elliott to find his offense.
Diego Lopes ($7,700)
Alexander Volkanovski started off so strongly in the first fight with Lopes in April that it's easy to forget how much trouble the Brazilian was able to give him by simply doubling (or tripling) up his jab before throwing his right hand. Every year off the clock will be critical for "The Great" at this stage of his career, and I can't trust that the 37-year-old will have perfect footwork for five rounds.
Kaan Ofli ($7,400)
I see Ofli and Yi Zha as similar fighters, as both men are wrestle-boxers who are not afraid of a brawl. Given their similarities, I don't see a reason for such a disparity in price, particularly since Ofli is going to be the one consistently coming forward. Ofli may need to worry about the submission prowess of Zha, but I am comfortable with "Genghis" on the ground, as he submitted Ricardo Ramos in his last fight and has never lost via tapout in 16 professional fights.
Dom Mar Fan ($8,700)
Fan may be the most complete debutant on the slate, as he can work a fluid boxing game before transitioning to his grappling. Sangwook Kim is a powerful, stiff striker who will also engage in a grappling game, but Fan is a good enough scrambler on the mat to get back to neutral or come out in top position when taken down.
Billy Elekana ($8,900)
There isn't much left to say in defense of Junior Tafa, who was taken down five times before being submitted by Tuco Tokkos in July. Elekana likes executing single-leg takedowns and finding the back of his opponents, which could mean a short night for "The Juggernaut."
Namsrai Batbayar ($8,300)
Aaron Tau's style of walking opponents down and throwing everything with power seems built for the regional scene, as he doesn't have much variety to his offense, and looks lost while on the back foot. Batbayar should be the quicker fighter here, with enough counterpunching and grappling ability to stay firmly ahead for three rounds.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Quillan Salkilld OVER 30.5 Significant Strikes, Rafael Fiziev UNDER 59.5 Significant Strikes, and Tallison Teixeira UNDER 21.5 Significant Strikes
Salkilld is a grappler by trade, but he may be forced into a bit of a striking match against Jamie Mullarkey, who is constantly on his front foot. While this may ultimately end in a knockout for Salkilld, I think the strikes will pile up enough early to clear this total.
The bout between Fiziev and Mauricio Ruffy should be a banger, with two explosive strikers throwing to end the fight. It should be noted, however, that Fiziev has added a wrestling element to his game, notching six takedowns in his last two fights. If this one doesn't end early, expect Fiziev to try to ground the Brazilian to control the tempo and take steam off his punches.
I see no reason why Teixiera's line should be set so high, as he notched just 11 significant strikes through his first two UFC fights. Tai Tuivasa is coming off a nearly two-year layoff, so Teixeira should look to start fast and put maximum pressure on his veteran counterpart.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props too
UFC Bets to Consider
Keiichiro Nakamura Wins via KO/TKO (+270)
Sebastian Szalay is a karate stylist who likes to blitz in with quick strikes, but his lack of size for the division will likely make it difficult to stay on the outside. Nakamura likes to march his opponents down and throw with power, and while he is susceptible to being taken down, Szalay isn't the kind of control grappler who can keep an opponent down for extended periods of time.
Sulang Rangbo vs. Lawrence Lui Fight Goes to Decision (+146)
Lui will enjoy a seven-inch reach advantage, but Rangbo is used to having to negotiate long opponents, which he generally remedies by using his speed and darting in and out of the pocket. This fight could end up being somewhat boring as Lui has to chase Rangbo around the Octagon, but that should lead to our fighters seeing the final bell.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 325 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
Looking for a new sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
