The UFC is in Mexico City on Saturday, February 28, for a solid UFC Mexico fight night card. The main event sees former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno taking on Lone'er Kavanagh, who took the fight on short notice.
UFC Mexico: MMA Betting Picks and Odds Insight
Below, I'll share my UFC Mexico City predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Flyweight
Brandon Moreno (23-9-2) vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (9-1)
UFC Mexico City is a very chalk-heavy card, but I do like Brandon Moreno here as the favorite, as I expected him to be over -300.
Moreno is one of the top flyweights still, while Kavanagh is unranked and took this fight on short notice. He's also coming off a KO loss to Charles Johnson, who isn't on the same level as Moreno.
I expect Moreno to use his boxing and land the better shots, and he should also have a cardio advantage considering Kavanagh gassed in his last fight. Ultimately, I like Moreno to get a fourth-round TKO here, and to me, (-205) is great value here on the fighter who will have the crowd behind him.
UFC Mexico City Bet: Brandon Moreno (-205)
Cash in on the best sportsbook promos available for MMA betting. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players one of the best welcome bonuses in the industry.
Weight Class: Women's bantamweight
Macy Chiasson (10-5) vs. Ailin Perez (12-2)
There aren't many underdogs I like on this card, but one I do is Macy Chiasson, due primarily to her size advantage.
Chiasson is inconsistent at times, but when she's on, she's one of the best bantamweights. However, she has struggled as of late. Nonetheless, Perez is getting a big step-up in competition against Chiasson, and I have some doubts about whether she will deal with Chiasson's size and strength.
Chiasson will have a massive six-inch reach advantage, and I like her to be able to use her jab to keep the distance and land the more damaging shots. In the end, look for her to come out on the right side of a decision.
UFC Mexico City Bet: Macy Chiasson (+150)
Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-6, 1 NC) vs. Javier Reyes (22-5)
For my prop at UFC Mexico City, I'm taking the over 2.5 rounds in the Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes fight.
Silva de Andrade has fought the who's-who of the bantamweight and featherweight division and has been incredibly hard to finish. The Brazilian went all three rounds with the likes of Lerone Murphy, Cody Stamann, Said Nurmagomedov and Marlon Vera, among others.
Reyes, meanwhile, will be making his UFC debut, so there could be some jitters. Although he got a finish on the Contender Series, de Andrade is a massive step-up in competition, and I don't expect him to be able to finish the Brazilian. Instead, I expect it hit the scorecards, but taking the over 2.5 rounds at -125 is a solid price, so that's the official play.
UFC Mexico City Bet: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes over 2.5 rounds (-125)
Check out on one of the top sports betting apps when you sign up with the FanDuel promo code for all of your MMA betting.
Weight Class: Bantamweight & Flyweight
David Martinez (13-1) vs. Marlon Vera (23-11-1)
Imanol Rodriguez (6-0) vs. Kevin Borjas (10-4)
For my parlay at UFC Mexico City, I'm taking David Martinez and Imanol Rodriguez to get their hands raised.
Martinez is taking on Vera in the co-main event, and this is a great spot for him to get a signature win over a well-known name. Martinez is someone I'm high on, and he should be able to land the more damaging shots here. Although Vera is as durable as they come, Martinez has shown he has the cardio to go three rounds. He will be more active on the feet and land the better shots to win a clear-cut decision.
The other leg of the parlay is Rodriguez to defeat Kevin Borjas. Rodriguez is someone I'm super high on. On TUF, I thought he looked like a future top-10 guy, and he impressed on the Contender Series as well. This appears to be a set-up fight, as Borjas has struggled against top guys, and I like Rodriguez to use his wrestling to control Borjas and likely pick up a first-round win.
UFC Mexico City Bet: David Martinez & Imanol Rodriguez parlay (-154)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Mexico City card:
- Brandon Moreno (-205)
- Macy Chiasson (+150)
- Douglas Silva de Andrade-Javier Reyes over 2.5 rounds (-125)
- David Martinez & Imanol Rodriguez parlay (-154)
If you prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
