The UFC is in Newark, New Jersey, on Saturday for a solid UFC 328 card. In the main event, Khamzat Chimaev defends his middleweight title against Sean Strickland.
Below, I'll share my UFC 328 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Flyweight
Tatsuro Taira (18-1) vs. Joshua Van (16-2)
In the co-main event of UFC 328, the flyweight title is up for grabs, and I like Tatsuro Taira to become the new champion and defeat Joshua Van.
This fight was supposed to happen in April, but an injury to Van pushed it back a month, which is a bit concerning. Taira, meanwhile, is a dominant grappler, and I expect him to have plenty of success against Van.
Van has looked good in the UFC, but I'm still not completely sold on him, as he won the belt due to an injury to Alexandre Pantoja. That was a fight where Pantoja was a decently-sized favorite and was expected to use his grappling to get the win.
Taira's grappling is next-level. I like him to be able to take Van down and control him on the ground and even get a submission to become the new flyweight champion.
UFC 328 Bet: Tatsuro Taira (-175)
Weight Class: Flyweight
Clayton Carpenter (8-2) vs. Jose Ochoa (8-2)
For my underdog, I'm backing Clayton Carpenter to beat Jose Ochoa in the first fight at UFC 328.
Carpenter has lost back-to-back fights and is likely fighting for his job on Saturday, which should add some urgency to his game. Ochoa is 1-2 in the UFC, but I haven't been too impressed with him.
Carpenter is a good wrestler, and I think he can use those skills to take Ochoa down, and even clinch him against the fence to win the rounds and edge out a decision. Carpenter also throws more volume and is the better striker in terms of accuracy, which should hold him if it does hit the scorecards.
To me, this is a pick'em fight, so to get +150 on Carpenter makes it a good underdog play to open the card.
UFC 328 Bet: Clayton Carpenter (+150)
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Weight Class: Lightweight
King Green (34-17-1) vs. Jeremy Stephens (29-22)
For my prop at UFC 328, I'm taking King Green to defeat Jeremy Stephens by decision in what should be a fan-friendly fight to open up the main card.
Green has won back-to-back fights and is coming off an upset stoppage win over Daniel Zellhuber. Stephens, meanwhile, is back in the UFC, after losing to Mike Perry in BKFC. Just months prior, he made his return to the UFC and dropped a decision to Mason Jones.
Green is the better striker and should be more active on his feet to land the better shots. Although he did finish Zellhuber in his last fight, Stephens is as tough as they come and hard to finish. So, I expect Green to land the better shots and avoid Stephens' power to win a decision.
UFC 328 Bet: King Green by decision (+110)
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Weight Class: Featherweight & Welterweight
Pat Sabatini (21-5) vs. William Gomis (15-3)
Yaroslav Amosov (29-1) vs. Joel Alvarez (23-3)
For my parlay at UFC 328, I'm taking Pat Sabatini and Yaroslav Amosov to get their hands raised.
Sabatini is taking on William Gomis, who always has close fights, but I'm not sold on him being a true contender. Sabatini has won three straight fights since losing by TKO to Diego Lopes, who's one of the best featherweights in the world, which shows he's starting to put his game together. I like Sabatini to use his wrestling and grappling to control Gomis to edge out a decision.
To close out the parlay, I'm taking Amosov, who's coming off an impressive UFC win over Neil Magny. He now takes on Joel Alvarez, who I believe is a step-down from Magny at welterweight. Amosov is a dominant wrestler, and that is how Alvarez has lost in the UFC, as Arman Tsarukyan dominated him, and he has struggled to defend takedowns. I like Amosov to use his wrestling to control Alvarez on the ground and look for a finish, but if he doesn't, he should cruise to a lopsided decision.
UFC 328 Bet: Pat Sabatini & Yaroslav Amosov parlay (+129)
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UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 328 card.
- Tatsuro Taira (-175)
- Clayton Carpenter (+150)
- King Green by decision (+110)
- Pat Sabatini & Yaroslav Amosov parlay (+129)
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