Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC 328
DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 328 card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
UFC Perth Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 134-44-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Chimaev
Fanduel Captain: Chimaev/Susurkaev
Khamzat Chimaev (15-0-0) v. Sean Strickland (30-7-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-0 (6 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Dominant pressure fighter with elite wrestling and overwhelming pace
- Has consistently looked levels above most opponents in the division
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 29-7 (12 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- High-volume striker with solid defense and durability
- Relies heavily on boxing and pace to win rounds
DFS Perspective:
I do not expect Strickland to put up much resistance here. Chimaev looks levels above everyone at middleweight right now, and his wrestling and pressure should completely dictate this fight. If he gets Strickland down early, this could get one-sided quickly. Chimaev profiles as one of the strongest plays on the slate and is close to a lock.
UFC 328 Pick: Chimaev
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Joshua Van (16-2-0) v. Tatsuro Taira (18-1-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-2 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Sharp boxer with elite volume and clean striking fundamentals
- Most effective when he can keep fights standing and overwhelm opponents with pace
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-1 (6 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- High-level grappler with excellent control and submission ability
- Needs to dictate where the fight takes place to maximize his effectiveness
DFS Perspective:
Both flyweights have clear paths to victory here. Taira needs to get and keep this fight on the mat, while Van needs to defend takedowns and force striking exchanges. If Van is able to keep this standing, I expect him to put on another striking clinic and successfully defend his title. Van profiles as the preferred side in a high-level matchup.
UFC 328 Pick: Van
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Alexander Volkov (39-11-0) v. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (17-2-0)
- Height: 6'7" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 39-11 (24 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Technical heavyweight striker with strong volume and experience
- Uses range and composure well to pick opponents apart over time
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-2 (9 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Powerful boxer with improving cardio and overall striking
- Has continued to show growth and confidence against tougher competition
DFS Perspective:
This should be a fun fight between two ranked heavyweights, and it really could go either way. Volkov is rightfully the favorite with his experience and range, but Cortes-Acosta has shown noticeable improvements recently. If he can close distance and force exchanges, he has a real shot to pull off the upset. Cortes-Acosta profiles as a solid dog play in a competitive matchup.
UFC 328 Pick: Cortes-Acosta
Sean Brady (18-2-0) v. Joaquin Buckley (21-7-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-2 (3 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Elite grappler with strong control and submission ability
- Most effective when he can dictate pace and dominate on the mat
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 21-7 (15 KO/TKO)
- Explosive striker with massive knockout power
- Always dangerous on the feet and capable of ending fights instantly
DFS Perspective:
Buckley is always live for a knockout against anyone, but he still struggles against high-level grapplers like Brady. If Brady avoids the big shot early, he should be able to work his game on the mat and control this fight. Buckley has clear KO upside, but Brady profiles as the preferred side with a strong grappling-based path.
UFC 328 Pick: Brady
King Green (34-17-1) v. Jeremy Stephens (29-22-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 34-17-1 (12 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Veteran striker with slick boxing and strong defensive movement
- Comfortable fighting at range and controlling exchanges with volume
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 29-22 (18 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Heavy-handed veteran with knockout power
- Durable and aggressive, but has struggled badly against higher-level competition
DFS Perspective:
There is not much that suggests Stephens wins this fight. Green should have the edge in speed, volume, and overall striking ability throughout. If he stays composed and avoids big exchanges, this could turn into a dominant veteran performance. Green profiles as the clear preferred side in this matchup.
UFC 328 Pick: Green
Ateba Gautier (10-1-0) v. Ozzy Diaz (10-3-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 81" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 10-1 (8 KO/TKO)
- Explosive finisher with serious power and aggressive pressure
- Most dangerous early when he can force exchanges and overwhelm opponents
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-3 (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Durable striker with power and willingness to trade
- Can be hittable in chaotic exchanges and relies heavily on toughness
DFS Perspective:
This should be a violent fight while it lasts. Both guys have power, but Gautier looks like the more explosive and dangerous fighter overall. If he comes out aggressive and lands clean early, this could end quickly. Gautier profiles as a strong play with major knockout upside.
UFC 328 Pick: Gautier
Joel Alvarez (23-3-0) v. Yaroslav Amosov (29-1-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23-3 (5 KO/TKO, 17 submissions)
- Dangerous finisher with improved striking and strong submission ability
- Continues to look better each fight with growing confidence on the feet
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 29-1 (9 KO/TKO, 12 submissions)
- Elite welterweight with strong wrestling and well-rounded skills
- Extremely composed and effective at controlling fights
DFS Perspective:
Amosov is clearly a top-tier fighter, but I would like to see him against more highly ranked UFC competition before fully buying in. Alvarez continues to improve every time out, and his striking and power could be the difference here. If he's able to keep this standing and force exchanges, he can create big moments. Alvarez profiles as the preferred side in a very competitive matchup.
UFC 328 Pick: Alvarez
Grant Dawson (23-3-1) v. Mateusz Rebecki (20-4-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 23-3-1 (5 KO/TKO, 13 submissions)
- Relentless grappler with strong cardio and control
- Excels at chaining takedowns together and wearing opponents down over time
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 20-4 (9 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Aggressive and physical with power and a strong grappling base
- Dangerous early and thrives in high-paced fights
DFS Perspective:
This should be a very competitive, grappling-heavy matchup. Dawson will look to lean on his pace, cardio and control, while Rebecki brings more explosiveness and finishing upside early. If Dawson is able to survive the early moments and establish control, he can take over late. Dawson profiles as the slight lean with his wrestling and pace over three rounds.
UFC 328 Pick: Dawson
Jim Miller (38-19-0) v. Jared Gordon (21-8-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 38-19 (7 KO/TKO, 21 submissions)
- Veteran grappler with strong submission ability and experience
- Relies on toughness and opportunistic finishing ability
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21-8 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Pressure-based fighter with solid boxing and cardio
- Most effective when he can push pace and win minutes consistently
DFS Perspective:
This feels more like a DFS pass overall. Gordon likely has the edge in pace and activity, while Miller is always live for a submission or veteran moment. Competitive fight, but limited upside compared to the rest of the slate.
UFC 328 Pick: Gordon
Roman Kopylov (14-5-0) v. Marco Tulio (14-2-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14-5 (12 KO/TKO)
- Technical striker with solid kicking game and finishing ability
- Has looked less impressive recently and may have hit his ceiling
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-2 (10 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Sharp striker with excellent volume and pressure
- Continues to impress with clean combinations and strong pace
DFS Perspective:
After watching Kopylov's last few fights, it feels fair to question whether we have already seen his ceiling. Tulio, meanwhile, continues to show high-level striking and volume that should translate well again here. If he keeps the pressure on and forces exchanges, he should be able to outwork Kopylov throughout. Tulio profiles as the preferred side with strong striking upside.
UFC 328 Pick: Tulio
Pat Sabatini (21-5-0) v. William Gomis (15-3-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21-5 (1 KO/TKO, 13 submissions)
- Grappling-heavy fighter with strong takedowns and submission ability
- Most effective when he can control fights on the mat and slow the pace down
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15-3 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Long, technical striker who uses movement and range well
- Typically fights at a slower pace, which can limit DFS scoring upside
DFS Perspective:
This matchup comes down to whether Sabatini can consistently secure takedowns. If he gets this fight to the mat, he can control and rack up points very quickly in a dominant grappling performance. Gomis is typically DFS poison due to his slower style and lower output, so Sabatini is clearly the more appealing DFS side if he's able to implement his wrestling.
UFC 328 Pick: Sabatini
Baisangur Susurkaev (11-0-0) v. Djorden Santos (11-2-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-0 (9 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Undefeated prospect with strong pressure and finishing ability
- Well-rounded with the ability to dictate pace in multiple areas
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-2 (3 KO/TKO, 4 submission)
- Aggressive striker with power and willingness to engage
- Dangerous early, but can be overwhelmed by pressure
DFS Perspective:
This should be a fun fight between two aggressive fighters. Santos has power and can create moments early, but Susurkaev looks like the more complete fighter overall. If he's able to apply pressure and force his pace, he should be able to take over as the fight progresses. Susurkaev profiles as the preferred side with solid upside.
UFC 328 Pick: Susurkaev
Clayton Carpenter (8-2-0) v. Jose Ochoa (8-2-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-2 (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- High-paced grappler with strong scrambling and submission ability
- Most effective when he can force pressure and dictate exchanges on the mat
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 8-2 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Aggressive striker with power and finishing ability
- Dangerous in open exchanges and willing to pressure forward
DFS Perspective:
This should be a high-action fight with clear paths on both sides. Carpenter will likely look to push grappling exchanges and control scrambles, while Ochoa has the edge in striking and knockout upside. If Carpenter can consistently get this to the mat, he could score very well. It's a strong DFS fight overall with upside on both sides.
UFC 328 Pick: Carpenter
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
