This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
Betting opportunities abound on the UFC 282 fight card, which features 13 bouts including the light heavyweight title fight between Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev. We close out the year with three-plus money plays among our four selections, including a bet that one of the UFC's biggest hype trains keeps rolling. All our plays this month come from William Hill and are accurate as to the posting date of this article.
Weight class: Lightweight
Paddy Pimblett (19-3-0) vs. Jared Gordon (19-5-0)
It may be the case that Pimblett doesn't quite have what it takes to rise through the ranks in one of the UFC's toughest divisions. Up to this point, however, his frame, physicality and grappling skills have carried him to wins in the Octagon. This seems likely to continue in a bout with Gordon, against whom he will enjoy a reach advantage of five inches.
Gordon has never been shy about staying in the pocket, which made takedowns readily available for Grant Dawson during their fight In April. "Flash" has been taken down 11 times in his last three contests, contributing to an overall defense rate of just 58 percent. I think Gordon will be able to scramble just enough to get himself into trouble here, as Pimblett's length on the ground completely stifled an active guard player in Jordan Leavitt.
Hype aside, there is one part of Pimblett's game that is perfectly functional, and it is one that has given Gordon trouble in the past. The fact that he has never had stopping power in his hands should give "Paddy The Baddy" opportunities to force exchanges if he doesn't like what's happening on the feet. At the end of the day, I don't think Gordon excels in any one area, which will allow Paddy to take this fight where he needs it to be.
UFC 282 BET: Paddy Pimblett wins via Submission (+200)
Weight class: Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz (29-9-0) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-0)
It's never a comfortable feeling to wager that two fighters in one of the UFC's heaviest weight classes will see the final bell after 25 minutes, but in Blachowicz and Ankalaev, we have two slow workers who are both incredibly durable. This seems like an invitation to take a shot on a decision prop to me, particularly when that prop can be had at significant plus-money.
Ankalaev may have more finishes than decision wins in his UFC tenure, but it's worth noting that the majority of his fights have been against action fighters in the division (including two against Ion Cutelaba). The reality is that the Dagestani fighter lands just 3.55 strikes per minute, while his excellent defense sees him absorb only 2.77. The latter number is important against a big puncher like Jan, while the former gives us confidence that he won't spend the majority of the bout initiating exchanges. This is true for Blachowicz as well, who has landed 3.54 strikes per minute during his time in the UFC.
I would be remiss if I didn't say that either man could stop this fight at any time, but if styles make fights, then the counter-striking nature of both men should pay dividends here. While both can grapple, it works to our advantage that neither is much of a submission threat, as the two have just nine such victories between them in a combined 56 bouts.
UFC 282 BET: Blachowicz/Ankalaev Fight goes to decision (+180)
Weight class: Featherweight
Billy Quarantillo (16-4-0) vs. Alexander Hernandez (13-5-0)
As someone who watches quite a bit of fighter tape, it isn't always easy identifying the dynamic between competitors that will swing the bout one way or the other. Sometimes, however, a matchup comes together that seems so clear, one can't help but take a shot.
Such is the case with Quarantillo vs Hernandez, as a fighter who specializes in breaking opponents will meet someone who is eminently breakable. We first saw this from Hernandez when he was knocked out by Donald Cerrone after a fast start, and the trend has continued in bouts against Drew Dober and Renato Moicano. This gives me confidence that even if "The Great" has success early, "Billy Q" will be able to turn the tide in his favor if he can weather the storm. Seeing as how the only stoppage loss on his record came six years ago, I think it's a safe bet that the 34-year-old will be able to find his way through any tense moments.
The more adventurous among you may opt for a finish prop, but it's not clear to me whether a submission or KO/TKO is more likely in the later rounds, as Hernandez has succumbed to both in the organization. In this case, I am happy to pay a bit of juice for Quarntillo, as I see this fight as a bit more one-sided than the oddsmakers.
UFC 282 BET: Billy Quarantillo (-165)
Weight class: Middleweight
Joaquin Buckley (15-5-0) vs. Chris Curtis (29-9-0)
Expectations were mixed when Curtis came to the UFC, as "The Action Man" has always been a solid boxer, but had shown problems with grapplers in the past. Four fights later, Curtis has a 100 percent takedown defense rate to go with a 3-1 record in the organization. Bodywork and accuracy have propelled the veteran's offense to this point, and he should be able to do similar work against Buckley.
While he has shown tremendous power, Buckley can resort to throwing technique away when fights aren't going to plan, as we saw in his bout against Nassourdine Imavov. A wild-swinging "New Mansa" who is simply looking for a knockout would be an open target for someone like Curtis, who can be accurate whether leading or as a counter striker. While he has absorbed a lot of damage it should be pointed out that most of his adversity came against Jack Hermansson, whose three-inch height advantage made it difficult for Curtis to fight on the inside.
Buckley can be a human highlight reel in the right matchup, but he may have found his kryptonite in Curtis, a patient, crisp boxer who will hit the lower half and swarm in later rounds. Curtis has shown that it takes more than power to give him trouble and I'm not sure Buckley has enough depth in his game to be the cause.
UFC 282 BET: Chris Curtis (+140)
UFC 282 Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 282 card:
- Paddy Pimblett wins via submission (+200)
- Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev fight goes to decision (+180)
- Billy Quarantillo (-165)
- Chris Curtis (+140)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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