UFC Vegas 116 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
See the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Vegas 116. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Featherweight
Aljamain Sterling (25-5-0) v. Youssef Zalal (18-5-1)
DK Salaries: Sterling ($7,800), Zalal ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Sterling (+120), Zalal (-140)
This is an excellent main event and one of the more underrated headliners the UFC could put together for an Apex card.
Sterling moved up to featherweight in April 2024 following a storied run at bantamweight. He's 2-1 in his new digs, with lopsided unanimous decision wins over Calvin Kattar and Brian Ortega, in addition to a competitive decision loss to Movsar Evloev -- the guy almost everyone considers to be next in line for a title shot. Sterling will be 37 years old at the very end of July, and he's always been plenty muscular, so 145 pounds seems like his home for the foreseeable future.
Zalal first joined the UFC in February 2020. He won his first three fights with the company before going winless (0-3-1) in his next four, earning a release in the process. He went back to the regional scene, won three straight via first-round stoppage, and returned to the company in March 2024. He's a perfect 5-0 since coming back, including four wins via stoppage. Zalal will somehow be just 30 years old in September.
Aljo's game plan at featherweight hasn't changed in the least. He's racked up 17 successful takedowns in his first three fights at 145 pounds. Kattar is a pure, one-dimensional striker and Ortega is a shell of his former self, but Evloev is elite, and Sterling got him down six times. Of course, he gave up four takedowns in that fight. and that ended up being the difference. The point is that he has the grappling to compete with the best in the world, regardless of weight class.
Zalal's numbers are a little wonky since returning because two of his fights ended in Round 1 and two others ended early in Round 2.
That said, you can watch him for 30 seconds right now and tell his confidence is at an all-time high. He's super aggressive, constantly threatening takedowns and trying to put his opponent on their back foot. Zalal has never been a high-volume striker, but he does enough to win. He took a unanimous decision from Kattar in February 2025 without landing a single takedown.
Zalal will enter with a three-inch edge in height and an inch edge in reach, but Sterling is typically the more active striker. Neither man has cardio issues, so a tightly-contested, long bout in which both men have their moments seems by far the most likely scenario.
I went back and forth with my pick, but the value on the Sterling side seems a bit too much to pass up. I like Zalal and think the improvements he has made are legitimate, but a unanimous decision win over Kattar and first-round submission victory over 40-year-old Josh Emmett aren't exactly career-defining wins. If he can pick up win against Sterling here, I'll be very impressed. It's just a tad early to fully buy in for me.
UFC VEGAS 116 PICK: Sterling
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Co-Main Event - Women's Bantamweight
Norma Dumont (13-2-0) v. Joselyne Edwards (17-6-0)
DK Salaries: Dumont ($8,800), Edwards ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Dumont (-230), Edwards (+190)
This was originally supposed to be Dumont and Yana Santos before the latter withdrew and was replaced by Edwards. That matchup would have made even less sense than this one.
Dumont has won six fights in a row. On the surface, she should probably be getting a top-five opponent, not the No. 11-ranked Edwards. But a deeper dive reveals some concerns. For starters, Dumont will be 36 years old in October. All six of those victories have come via decision, and none have come against upper-level competition. The best win of the bunch was probably over Ketlen Vieira last October. That came via split decision in a fight Norma certainly didn't deserve. Here, she's taking on an opponent in Edwards in a matchup in which she has virtually nothing to gain and everything to lose.
Edwards has won four in a row and seven of nine, so she's surpassed even the most optimistic expectations for her prior to her UFC arrival. Again, however, we go back to the competition level faced. Joselyne's previous four victories came against Nora Cornolle, Priscila Cachoeira, Chelsea Chandle, and Tamires Vidal. Edwards has been with the UFC for over five years now, and outside of one fight against Ailin Perez -- which she lost -- she has never been remotely tested. Dumont is a step up regardless of what you think about her long-term future.
Norma's offensive arsenal is mildly intriguing. She's displayed the ability to really lean on her wrestling game, but only in ideal matchups. For example, she got six takedowns against Germaine de Randamie, but GDR was nearly 40 years old and the time and coming off a three-year-long layoff.
Edwards' 61 percent takedown defense is middling, but at 5-foot-8, she's pretty big for the division. I don't think Dumont will be able to easily outmuscle her or anything like that.
On the flip side, Joselyn should have the advantage on the feet just because she tends to be more active. I'm not buying the power for a second, even though she has won two of her last three fights via knockout, but I will buy Edwards' activity level potentially being the difference in an otherwise close fight.
These type of fights are typically always close, and this should be no different. I'd be pretty surprised if it doesn't go to a decision, and judging on the whole has been awful of late. That alone makes Edwards a reasonable play, but I think Dumont is the better fighter. Whether or not two-thirds of the judges will agree is a different story entirely.
UFC VEGAS 116 PICK: Dumont
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Lightweight
Rafa Garcia (18-4-0) v. Alexander Hernandez (18-8-0)
DK Salaries: Garcia ($7,700), Hernandez ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Garcia (+110), Hernandez (-130)
Garcia rarely gets talked about, but he's been with the UFC for more than five years now and has had a nice little run considering he lost each of his first two fights with the company. He's quietly won four of five, with the lone setback in that stretch coming against a legitimate top-15 guy in Grant Dawson. Garcia's upside isn't super high, and he isn't any sort of contender, but he gives you a reasonable performance every time out, and he certainly has value to a company which must hold an event nearly every Saturday.
Hernandez has really turned things around over the past year-and-a-half. He lost four of five from February 2022 to April 2024 and looked like a legitimate cut candidate, but the company stuck with him, and he's responded with four straight wins including his two most recent, over Diego Ferreira and Chase Hooper, via knockout.
Hernandez has always been long on talent, and other than of late, short on performance. Heck, this is a guy that knocked out Beneil Dariush in 42 seconds in his late-notice UFC debut back in March 2018. He followed that up a unanimous decision win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier less than four months later. When you catch Hernandez on the right day, he looks like a top-10 lightweight.
Garcia is super aggressive no matter how he is going about attacking his opposition. He lands 4.31 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.54 per minute.
Toss in his 3.13 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, and you have a legitimate multi-threat offensive weapon on your hands. That's the good news. The bad news is that I don't love his fight IQ at times, and he has virtually no power in his hands, with just two career wins via knockout.
On the surface, a slugfest would seem to favor Hernandez simply because he has a massive power edge, but he also has durability issues. Does he roll the dice and try to go toe-to-toe with Garcia?
This is a pick 'em for me, which is essentially what the fight is lined at.
I'll roll the dice with Hernandez in hopes he can continue his recent surge, albeit with little confidence.
UFC VEGAS 116 PICK: Hernandez
Bantamweight
Montel Jackson (15-3-0) v. Raoni Barcelos (21-5-0)
DK Salaries: Jackson ($8,600), Barcelos ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Jackson (-180), Barcelos (+150)
Jackson's talent level has never been in question, but his inactivity has been a big issue throughout the years. He fought just once in 2022, 2023 and 2024. He finally got to two fights in 2025, the second of which came against Deiveson Figueiredo in October and resulted in a split decision loss to snap a six-fight winning streak. Jackson will be 34 years old the day before this event takes place, and unless he suddenly ups his output to something like three fights per year consistently, I don't see how he will be able to survive any sort of losing streak, making this bout a massive one for him.
Barcelos continues to go about his business despite the fact he is closing in on his 39th birthday. He's won four fights in a row, including victories over Ricky Simon, Cody Garbrandt and Payton Talbott. The first two names there are obviously well past their prime, but Talbott is one of the top overall prospects in the sport, and Barcelos dominated him a little over a year ago. If you don't show up ready to fight, Raoni will expose you every single time.
Jackson is tough to get a read on. He doesn't have the type of skill set I typically like to back. The power is legitimate, but he's so low volume that it's hard to project him to be effective on the feet on a fight-by-fight basis. In his last five fights that have gone the distance, Jackson's significant strikes totals are as follows: 30, 30, 48, 25 and 26. Not only are the numbers low, but let's just say Montel wasn't facing the cream of the crop in any of those fights.
His three takedowns averaged per 15 minutes is a respectable number, but it's also a number skewed by the 11 he landed in a January 2020 matchup against Felipe Colares. I'd consider him a strong grappler, not a great one.
On the flip side, Barcelos can't come close to matching Jackson's power, but he laps him in terms of activity level all day long. Would I prefer he didn't absorb 4.42 significant strikes per minute? Sure I would, but the fact he lands 4.92 per minute while not having durability issues in the process is a big deal.
There are enough red flags on the Jackson side for me to take a shot on Barcelos. Raoni has been knocked out once in his professional career. If Montel isn't landing much and Barcelos isn't crumbling on the few shots that do land, I think the latter can outwork him.
UFC VEGAS 116 PICK: Barcelos
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
Davey Grant (17-8-0) v. Adrian Luna Martinetti (17-1-0)
DK Salaries: Grant ($8,000), Martinetti ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Grant (-120), Martinetti (+100)
UFC VEGAS 116 PICK: Grant
Heavyweight
Marcus Almeida (aka "Buchecha") (5-2-1) v. Ryan Spann (23-11-0)
DK Salaries: Buchecha ($8,300), Spann ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Buchecha (-155), Spann (+130)
UFC VEGAS 116 PICK: Spann
Middleweight
Rodolfo Vieira (11-4-0) v. Eric McConico (10-4-1)
DK Salaries: Vieira ($9,100), McConico ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Vieira (-270), McConico (+220)
UFC VEGAS 116 PICK: Vieira
Middleweight
Jackson McVey (6-2-0) v. Sedriques Dumas (10-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: McVey ($8,700), Dumas ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: McVey (-205), Dumas (+170)
UFC VEGAS 116 PICK: McVey
Women's Bantamweight
Mayra Bueno Silva (10-6-1, 1NC) v. Michelle Montague (7-0-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($6,900), Montague ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Silva (+320), Montague (-410)
UFC VEGAS 116 PICK: Montague
Flyweight
Jafel Filho (17-4-0) v. Cody Durden (17-10-1)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Filho (-600), Durden (+440)
UFC VEGAS 116 PICK: Filho
Lightweight
Francis Marshall (9-3-0) v. Lucas Brennan (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Marshall (-500), Brennan (+380)
UFC VEGAS 116 PICK: Marshall
Welterweight
Max Griffin (20-12-0) v. Victor Valenzuela (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Griffin (+130), Valenzuela (-155)
UFC VEGAS 116 PICK: Griffin
Women's Strawweight
Talita Alencar (7-1-0) v. Julia Polastri (14-5-0)
DK Salaries: Alencar ($7,200), Polastri ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Alencar (+210), Polastri (-260)
UFC VEGAS 116 PICK: Polastri
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
