UFC Vegas 115 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
See the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Vegas 115: Moicano vs. Duncan. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $333k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Lightweight
Renato Moicano (20-7-1) v. Chris Duncan (15-2-0)
DK Salaries: Moicano ($7,400), Duncan ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Moicano (+160), Duncan (-190)
Moicano will be 37 years old in May. He's a fringe top-10 guy in a loaded bantamweight division, typically winning the fights he's expected to and losing those in which he faces top-level competition. He is still capable of a massive performance now and then, such as his shocking knockout win over Benoit Saint-Denis in Paris back in September 2014, but Moicano is coming off back-to-back defeats to Beneil Dariush (unanimous decision) and Islam Makhachev (submission, and totally understandable). This feels like a fight he has to have.
Duncan's birthday is also in May. He will be 32. This feels like a fair step up in competition for a guy that enters having won four in a row. Duncan is sporting a 7-1 record with the UFC, with his lone setback being a submission at the hands of Manuel Torres. His last two wins are over Terrance McKinney and Mateusz Rebecki, two guys I rate well. I didn't think there was any chance Duncan would turn out to be this good. He could walk away tomorrow, and he would have surpassed even my most optimistic expectations.
Moicano is a risky bet because he's so reliant on his ground game for success. 10 of his 20 career wins are via submission. He has just two knockouts, and one was the fight against Saint-Denis in which the doctor called things off after Round 2.
He's capable of racking up takedowns against one-dimensional strikers, but I wouldn't call him a great wrestler by any means. My guess is that Duncan will have a strength edge, making things even more difficult for the Brazilian.
Neither man will have much of an edge in terms of pure size. Moicano is an inch taller and will have an inch reach edge, but he's not the type to try and snipe his opposition from distance, so I consider both those traits irrelevant here.
Like Moicano, Duncan is most comfortable in a brawl. He clearly has more power than his opponent and is willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. That most certainly could end up being an issue moving forward, but I don't think it's an issue here.
Trying to take Moicano down is risky because he's so tricky on the mat, even off of his back, but I bet Duncan could do it if he wanted to. I don't see this fight going the distance by any means. Three of Chris' last five appearances have ended in Round 1.
Moicano seems like a reasonable underdog play in what projects to be a firefight, but I think I trust Duncan more in a straight-up brawl these days.
UFC VEGAS 115 PICK: Duncan
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Co-Main Event - Women's Strawweight
Virna Jandiroba (22-4-0) v. Tabatha Ricci (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Jandiroba ($7,900), Ricci ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Jandiroba (-120), Ricci (+100)
Jandiroba parlayed a five-fight winning streak into a shot at the vacant 115-pound title in October. She dropped a unanimous decision to Mackenzie Dern that evening, although she was competitive in the process. I see no real reason to think Virna doesn't have plenty of gas left in the tank, but there's two major reasons for concern moving forward. The biggest issue is the fact she'll be 38 years of age at the end of May. Of secondary concern, although also a major problem, is the fact she has just one career win via knockout. She's submission, decision, or bust.
Ricci is hard to figure out. She's only 31 years old, so by default she should have an edge on Jandiroba in terms of athleticism. Tabatha is just 3-2 in her past five fights, with the most recent being a knockout win over Amanda Ribas last July. She's talented, although I never really got the impression she was a legitimate title challenger of any sort.
Even for the smallest division in the company, Ricci is tiny. She's just 5-foot-1 and is giving up three inches in both height and reach to Jandiroba. She's by no means a fluid striker, although Virna also isn't the type of opponent to string together combinations in order to damage her opposition.
Both women are deceptively strong for their size and both are entirely reliant on their grappling game for success.
Both average a shade under three takedowns per 15 minutes.
Both land 37 percent of their attempts. Jandiroba defends the takedown at 74 percent, while Ricci is at 78 percent.
Something is going to have to give here.
The only thing I really feel comfortable saying here is that this fight is probably going the distance in some form or fashion as neither are finishers.
Flip a coin. I lean ever so slightly towards Ricci because I think she has the upper-body strength to gain the advantage in clinch situations along the fence. It could ended up being a big part of the fight if the wrestling game cancels each other out.
UFC VEGAS 115 PICK: Ricci
Light Heavyweight
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (8-0-0) v. Brendson Ribeiro (17-9-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Yakhyaev ($9,900), Ribeiro ($6,300)
Vegas Odds: Yakhyaev (-1800), Ribeiro (+1000)
This is about the thinnest card you will ever see the UFC produce. As a result, a fight such as this one is made with a very clear intention.
Yakhyaev is one of the brightest prospects in the sport. He turned just 25 years of age in January. He picked up a 30-second knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series last August before picking up a 33-second submission win over Raffael Cerqueira in his official company debut in November. He's legit and the UFC is doing everything they can to not only keep him on track, but to make sure he continues to win impressively.
Ribeiro has lost back-to-back fights and is 2-4 in a half-dozen UFC bouts. He's not without talent, but there's zero consistency here, even on a round-by-round basis. Five of his nine career setbacks have come via knockout, so not only does he display poor fight IQ and compete recklessly, he also has virually no durability to speak of. If I had to guess, I imagine the UFC gave him this fight with the intention of letting him go after he is inevitably routed by Yakhyaev.
These numbers obviously mean literally nothing because of his inexperience inside the Octagon, but Yakhyaev lands 20.95 significant strikes per minute while averaging 14.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. Hysterical stuff.
I'm typically extremely wary of blowing a massive chunk of my DraftKings budget on one fighter because so many other things have to go right in order for you to successfully cash, but this is one time I'm willing to make an exception.
The undercard here seems virtually impossible to pick, so I'm willing to invest in a guy I expect not only to win, but to win in dominant fashion.
It's never going to feel great, but Yakhyaev is a real problem, and I don't trust Ribeiro in the least. If you ever plan on doing it, this seems like the time.
UFC VEGAS 115 PICK: Yakhyaev
Bantamweight
Ethyn Ewing (9-2-0) v. Rafael Estevam (14-4-0)
DK Salaries: Ewing ($8,600), Estevam ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Ewing (-135), Estevam (+115)
From a personal standpoint, this is probably the fight I'm looking forward to most on the entire card.
Ewing lost his first two professional fights. He's won nine straight since, including shocking Malcolm Wellmaker in his UFC debut last November. He's athletic, well-trained and extremely gritty. I'm not sure how high his long-term ceiling is, and we won't get that answer for another handful of fights, but the early returns were extremely positive from a guy we knew next to nothing about prior to his arrival.
Undefeated as a professional, Estevam earned his UFC opportunity with a knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series back in September 2022. He has barely fought since, appearing just three times with the company and winning each via unanimous decision. He defeated Charles Johnson in November 2023, didn't fight at all in 2024, then got past Jesus Aguilar and Felipe Bunes last year.
Ewing was able to get past Wellmaker because he outworked him on the feet. He was the more active man, and that, along with three takedowns, was largely the difference in a fairly competitive fight. He'll need to do the same here against Estevam and will have a full training camp under his belt to make it happen.
In Estevam's three official fights with the company, he's landed 19 takedowns. That is not a misprint. He got Bunes five times, Aguilar 11 times, and Johnson three times.
Ewing defended all three of Wellmaker's shots in his debut, but it goes without saying he'll be facing a much higher level grappler here in the Brazilian.
I was leaning Ewing ever so slightly until I saw the DraftKings salaries. Under no circumstances, at least at this point in their respective UFC runs, can I confidently say Ewing is worth $1000 more than Estevam. That's not a couple hundred bucks. That's real savings. If you plan on dumping $9,900 on Yakhyaev, every little bit helps.
UFC VEGAS 115 PICK: Estevam
Believe in this underdog pick? Try it out with different lineup combinations and generate up to 150 unique builds with our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Tommy McMillen (9-0-0) v. Manolo Zecchini (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: McMillen ($9,800), Zecchini ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: McMillen (-1450), Zecchini (+850)
UFC VEGAS 115 PICK: McMillen
Featherweight
Jose Delano (16-3-0) v. Robert Ruchala (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Delano ($9,200), Ruchala ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Delano (-375), Ruchala (+295)
UFC VEGAS 115 PICK: Delano
Heavyweight
Guilherme Pat (6-0-0) v. Thomas Petersen (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Pat ($8,200), Petersen ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Pat (-105), Petersen (-115)
UFC VEGAS 115 PICK: Petersen
Flyweight
Alessandro Costa (14-5-0) v. Stewart Nicoll (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Costa ($8,300), Nicoll ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Costa (-395), Nicoll (+310)
UFC VEGAS 115 PICK: Costa
Lightweight
Lando Vannata (12-7-2) v. Darrius Flowers (12-8-1)
DK Salaries: Vannata ($8,900), Flowers ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Vannata (-395), Flowers (+310)
UFC VEGAS 115 PICK: Vannata
Women's Bantamweight
Alice Pereira (6-1-0) v. Hailey Cowan (7-4-0)
DK Salaries: Pereira ($8,400), Cowan ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Pereira (-120), Cowan (+100)
UFC VEGAS 115 PICK: Cowan
Middleweight
Azamat Bekoev (20-4-0) v. Tresean Gore (6-4-0)
DK Salares: Bekoev ($9,500), Gore ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Bekoev (-600), Gore (+440)
UFC VEGAS 115 PICK: Bekoev
Women's Flyweight
Dione Barbosa (8-4-0) v. Melissa Gatto (9-2-2)
DK Salaries: Barbosa ($8,500), Gatto ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Barbosa (-135), Gatto (+115)
UFC VEGAS 115 PICK: Gatto
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
