UFC London Predictions: DraftKings DFS Preview & Picks
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Featherweight
Movsar Evloev (19-0-0) v. Lerone Murphy (17-0-1)
DK Salaries: Evloev ($8,900), Murphy ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Evloev (-245), Murphy (+200)
This matchup is about as well as you can do at 145 pounds without the championship being involved. The winner, especially if it comes impressively, would appear to be all but certain to be next in line for a title shot.
Considering Evloev's past body of work, he probably should have gotten a title shot already. He's 9-0 in the UFC, with wins over Aljamain Sterling, Arnold Allen, Diego Lopes and Dan Ige. There are only two negatives that I can see. One is that he hasn't been particularly active. Evloev fought twice in 2019, once in 2020, twice in 2021, once in 2022, once in 2023, and twice in 2024. The other issue is the fact that all nine of those wins have come via decision. He's not the most entertaining guy on the roster by a long shot. But then again, neither is Islam Makhachev.
Murphy is from Manchester, so this is essentially a home game for him, and he'll have the backing of what figures to be a raucous crowd. Lerone fought Zubaira Tukhugov to a split draw in his September 2019 company debut. Since then, he's 9-0, with wins over Ige, Josh Emmett, Edson Barboza, and, most recently, a first-round highlight reel knockout of former Bellator standout Aaron Pico in Chicago last August.
Evloev employs the traditional grappling-heavy game plan we see from many of the top Russians. He averages 4.67 takedowns per 15 minutes and has registered at least four takedowns in each of his past five fights. His most recent fight against Sterling was very close, primarily because Aljo landed six takedowns of his own.
Lerone isn't a wrestler by trade, but he's the type of guy who can mix in takedowns when facing pure strikers. He did it to both Ige and Barboza. I'd be dumbfounded if he's able to get to his offensive wrestling against Evloev. It's just not a wise path to take.
On the feet, we've seen Murphy pile up the volume in the past. In three-round fights against Emmett and Gabriel Santos, he landed 84 and 93 significant strikes, respectively. In his five-round fight against Barboza, Lerone landed an insane 220 total strikes.
Murphy has eight career wins via knockout, but just one in his past six fights and that was via a fluky spinning back elbow his last time out against Pico.
Everything we've seen from both of these guys over the years makes me think this fight is going to be an extended one, likely the full 25 minutes.
Ultimately, my guess is Evloev is effective enough with his grappling to win three of the five rounds and take a decision in the process, but I wouldn't fault anyone that wants to take a shot on Murphy as an underdog play. Fighters with his abilities are rarely available for $7,300.
UFC LONDON PICK: Evloev
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Co-Main Event - Featherweight
Luke Riley (12-0-0) v. Michael Aswell (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Riley ($9,100), Aswell ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Riley (-245), Aswell (+200)
This is a very strange fight to have as the co-main event of an arena card, or any card, really, and it looks like a blatant attempt by the company to elevate the status of Riley in his home country.
The Liverpool native won't be 27 years of age until late June. He's undefeated as a professional, with nine of his 12 wins coming via knockout. A former Cage Warriors standout, Riley had each of his first 11 pro fights with the promotion before jumping to the UFC in November. He scored a second-round knockout win over Bogdan Grad in his company debut. He's a real prospect, maybe a very good one, despite being inexperienced at the highest level.
Aswell has youth on his side, as he won't be 26 years old until late September. He competed on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2024, dropping a split decision to Grad. Aswell returned to the regional scene, won one fight, and got the call to the UFC last May. He lost to Bolaji Oki via unanimous decision that evening before knocking out Lucas Almeida in under two minutes in October. Almeida is 1-3 in his past four fights, so it was a bout Aswell had to win, and he got the job done.
I touched on Riley's power earlier. It's legitimate. He predictably has a handful of Round 1 finishes against lower-end competition, but he's also shown an ability to go the distance if needed.
That said, I have concerns about the rest of his game.
He allowed four takedowns to Grad on seven attempts, giving up 3:55 worth of control time. He's not a grappler by any means, and it's fair to wonder how he thrives -- both offensively and defensively -- if those power shots aren't landing.
To say Aswell is an all-action guy would be a massive understatement. In his fight against Oki and his DWCS bout against Grad, both of which went the full 15 minutes, Aswell landed 118 and 155 significant strikes, respectively. Heck, he dropped 30 on Almeida -- including two knockdowns -- in under two minutes.
Aswell isn't going to continue to average 9.56 significant strikes landed per minute over the long term, but that number gives you an idea of what he hopes to accomplish inside the octagon.
I think there's a real chance Riley struggles at times during his UFC run. He seems reckless inside the octagon despite being immensely talented.
I'd feel a lot better about this pick if this card wasn't in England, as any close decision figures to go Riley's way, but give me Aswell to pull the upset. I think he harnesses his aggressiveness just a bit better than Riley at this point.
UFC LONDON PICK: Aswell
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Welterweight
Michael Page (24-3-0) v. Sam Patterson (14-2-1)
DK Salaries: Page ($8,600), Patterson ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Page (-185), Patterson (+155)
A pair of Brits will match up here in what projects to be one of the most entertaining fights on the entire card.
Page is still a big name in the world of MMA despite the fact that he will be 39 years old in a few weeks. The former Bellator standout has looked great since joining the UFC, taking unanimous decisions from Jared Cannonier, Shara Magomedov and Kevin Holland while looking very competitive in a unanimous decision defeat to Ian Garry. Garry is very close to fighting for UFC gold and Page looked good against him.
Patterson suffered a flash, 75-second knockout loss to Yanal Ashmouz in his official UFC debut back in March 2023. Since then, things couldn't be going better. He's won four fights in a row (Trey Waters, Danny Barlow, Kiefer Crosbie, Yohan Lainesse), all via first-round stoppage. Obviously, none of those guys are remotely on the level of an opponent like Page, and this seems like a fair step up for Patterson in a fight in which he appears to have a bunch to gain and not much to lose.
I believe the main reason Page is successful is that there's virtually no one else in the sport who fights the way he does. By definition, he's a point kickboxer, but he throws all sorts of strikes from odd angles, and it's impossible to train for a guy like that. No sparring partner you bring in can truly mimic what MVP does inside the octagon. He hasn't appeared to have lost any athleticism yet at his advanced age, and he's given a bunch of recent opposition, all of whom would, on paper, be higher rated than Patterson, real trouble.
One thing Patterson does have going for him is that he can match Page in terms of pure size. Both are 6-foot-3. MVP will enter with a one-inch reach edge. Page likes to stand at distance and win technical striking affairs. He's probably going to have to crash the pocket a bit more than usual to emerge victorious here.
We've seen guys near the top of the food chain that haven't come close to figuring out MVP.
He's a risky guy to back as a favorite because if he happens to come across an opponent that can get a good read on him, he's probably in trouble, but I'm willing to roll the dice that he will befuddle a guy with 6 fights in his UFC career to date, all against lower-level competition.
UFC LONDON PICK: Page
Middleweight
Roman Dolidze (15-4-0) v. Christian Leroy Duncan (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Dolidze ($6,900), Duncan ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Dolidze (+330), Duncan (-425)
Dolidze has been with the UFC since July 2020, although it sure doesn't feel that long. He's had a fair amount of success over the years, picking up wins over Marvin Vettori, Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson, and Kyle Daukaus. He saw a three-fight winning streak snapped against Anthony Hernandez in his last time out in a main event fight last August, but Hernandez is a legitimate top-five middleweight, so it was an understandable setback. The main issue for Roman to overcome at this point is that he'll be 38 years old in July.
Duncan's 6-2 UFC record looks great on paper, but a deeper dive reveals some concerns. The company has matched him up against remarkably soft competition, with his best wins coming over names like Eryk Anders and Marco Tulio. In the lone fight in which he fought a top-15 middleweight, he was swept on the scorecards by Gregory Rodrigues. Dolidze is one of the best opponents Duncan has faced to date, by any measure.
Duncan looks good getting off the bus, as the kids like to say. And he's not without talent. It's just that his offensive game is quite one-dimensional. He's an excellent point striker. At 6-foot-2 with a 79-inch reach, Duncan is very good at distance. He's fairly high volume (4.6 significant strikes landed per minute) for a guy that employs that type of style.
10 of Duncan's 13 career wins are via knockout, but I still wouldn't call him a brutal power puncher. For what it's worth, Dolidze has never been knocked out in his professional career.
Dolidze is a big, strong guy. He's able to match Duncan in terms of size, and he almost certainly projects to have a strength advantage in the clinch, but he's also seven years older. I don't think he can match Duncan's athleticism or footwork, particularly at distance, meaning it's on Roman to make things ugly, crash the pocket, and cause chaos.
The prettier this fight looks, the more it favors CLD.
I get why Duncan is favored. He's seven years younger. He employs a style that tends to age well. And Dolidze is coming off a lopsided loss. But he's coming off a lopsided loss because he gave up nine takedowns to an elite chain wrestler. CLD lands 0.4 takedowns per 15 minutes. I doubt he even shoots once on Roman.
There's no way in the world there's a $2,400 salary difference between these two.
I'm probably just making a donation, but the price is low enough, and the reward is high enough that I'll roll with Dolidze. What would this price have been if the Hernandez fight had never happened?
UFC LONDON PICK: Dolidze
Other Bouts
Light Heavyweight
Iwo Baraniewski (7-0-0) v. Austen Lane (13-7-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Baraniewski ($9,500), Lane ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Baraniewski (-575), Lane (+425)
UFC LONDON PICK: Baraniewski
Featherweight
Kurtis Campbell (8-0-0) v. Danny Silva (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Campbell ($8,800), Silva ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Campbell (-220), Silva (+160)
UFC LONDON PICK: Campbell
Lightweight
Mason Jones (17-2-0, 1NC) v. Axel Sola (11-0-1)
DK Salaries: Jones ($8,400), Sola ($7,800)
UFC LONDON PICK: Sola
Featherweight
Nathaniel Wood (22-6-0) v. Losene Keita (16-1-0)
DK Salaries: Wood ($7,500), Keita ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Wood (+195), Keita (-240)
UFC LONDON PICK: Keita
Heavyweight
Mario Pinto (11-0-0) v. Felipe Franco (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Pinto ($9,700), Franco ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Pinto (-900), Franco (+600)
UFC LONDON PICK: Pinto
Middleweight
Mantas Kondratavicius (8-1-0) v. Antonio Trocoli (12-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Kondratavicius ($9,600), Trocoli ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Kondratavicius (-800), Trocoli (+550)
UFC LONDON PICK: Kondratavicius
Heavyweight
Louie Sutherland (10-4-0) v. Brando Pericic (5-1-0)
DK Salaries: Sutherland ($7,200), Pericic ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Sutherland (+220), Pericic (-270)
UFC LONDON PICK: Pericic
Lightweight
Shaqueme Rock (12-2-1) v. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (15-4-0)
DK Salaries: Rock ($7,900), Al-Selwady ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Rock (+110), Al-Selwady (-130)
UFC LONDON PICK: Rock
Women's Strawweight
Shanelle Dyer (6-1-0) v. Ravena Oliveira (7-3-1)
DK Salaries: Dyer ($9,400), Oliveira ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Dyer (-470), Oliveira (+360)
UFC LONDON PICK: Dyer
Women's Bantamweight
Melissa Mullins (7-2-0) v. Luana Carolina (11-5-0)
DK Salaries: Mullins ($8,000), Carolina ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Mullins (+110), Carolina (-130)
UFC LONDON PICK: Carolina
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
