This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Mexico City takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Flyweight
Brandon Moreno (21-7-2) v. Brandon Royval (15-7-0)
DK Salaries: Moreno ($8,800), Royval ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Moreno (-270), Royval (+220)
This was originally due to be Moreno and Amir Albazi before the latter withdrew and Royval stepped in. He and Moreno met in November 2020, with Brandon winning via knockout with one second remaining in Round 1.
A former two-time UFC Flyweight Champion, Moreno has been at or near the top of the 125-pound division for the past three-plus years. He's 2-2-1 in his last five fights, with his most recent bout being a split decision defeat to Alexandre Pantoja last July in which he dropped his title. It was a back-and-forth war in which both men landed a ton of damage. In short, the exact type of fight which we have become accustomed to seeing from Moreno.
I admit I was looking forward to the Albazi fight a bit more than this one. Royval just fought Pantoja for the belt in December and was overwhelmed in a lopsided unanimous decision defeat. That fight played out exactly how I expected given Pantoja's massive edge in terms of physical gifts. Moreno isn't quite on that same level, but he isn't far off. It could be another long night for Brandon.
Moreno could retire tomorrow and his career would be judged an overwhelming success. He's certainly a much better fighter than I ever gave him credit for early in his UFC run. He has power, is ridiculously durable and has shown a toughness and determination few fighters can match. I think there's a real chance we have already seen the best Moreno has to offer inside the Octagon, but that's by no means a slight at him.
I'm very curious how Royval will go about trying to win this fight. Engaging Moreno in a wild brawl seems like a terrible idea given his durability and underrated power.
Of course, we haven't mentioned Royval's biggest problem, which is that he can't defend a takedown. He gave up eight to Pantoja, eight more in a previous fight against Rogerio Bontorin and allowed Moreno to land his only two attempts in the first fight between the two. The best in the world are going to exploit a hole in your game like that every single time.
Royval looks like back-half of the top-10 guy, even in a thin division. I think Moreno is the better fighter everywhere, and when you toss in the fact he's going to have a massive home-field advantage, this is a ridiculously easy pick.
THE PICK: Moreno
Co-Main Event - Featherweight
Brian Ortega (15-3-0, 1NC) v. Yair Rodriguez (16-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Ortega ($7,700), Rodriguez ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Ortega (+140), Rodriguez (-165)
This is a rematch of a July 2022 fight in which Ortega suffered a dislocated shoulder late in Round 1, resulting in a no-contest.
Brian hasn't fought since that bout, which is highly concerning. He'll be 33 years of age three days before this event takes place, and he's looking at more than a year and a half on the sidelines by the time fight night rolls around. Ortega hasn't won a fight since October 2020. Octagon rust is real, regardless of what anyone may say to the contrary.
Rodriguez has competed twice since the first bout. He submitted Josh Emmett to win the interim UFC Featherweight Championship last February before being routed by Alexander Volkanovski in a title unification bout a few months later.
Yair is a gifted striker. He's long and creative. Yet, he struggles to defend takedowns at times. He gave up seven to Volkanovski. He also allowed Ortega to land one in their brief fight, although he did stuff four other attempts. As great as Brian is on the mat, he's not a natural wrestler. Sure, he's going to have the edge on the ground, but how does he get the fight there consistently?
We've seen some really good striking performances from Ortega, and we've also seen some stinkers. "T-City" has fought the best of the best, and that has to be taken into account, but this is a guy that has been with the UFC for nearly a decade now and is still absorbing 6.66 significant strikes per minute. It's an insane number. Essentially, Ortega is at real risk of being overwhelmed by volume in prolonged kickboxing matches, which happens to be the thing Rodriguez probably does best.
Ortega is the much better grappler and has a clear path to victory, but I'm worried about all the time off. I picked him in the first fight and wouldn't be shocked if he won again, but Rodriguez is healthier, younger and has been more active of late. That's enough to swing me in his direction in what again projects to be a close fight.
THE PICK: Rodriguez
Lightweight
Daniel Zellhuber (14-1-0) v. Francisco Prado (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Zellhuber ($8,900), Prado ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Zellhuber (-275), Pardo (+225)
This is a fun fight and easily the most interesting bout outside of the main and co-main event.
Zellhuber earned his UFC opportunity with a unanimous decision win over Lucas Almeida in September 2021. He dropped a unanimous decision to Trey Ogden in his company debut before rebounding with a unanimous decision over Lando Vannata and a submission of Christos Giagos. Zellhuber won't be 25 years of age until July. There's legitimate long-term potential here.
Prado is younger than Zellhuber by quite a wide margin. He won't be 22 years of age until June. He's 1-1 in the UFC, with a unanimous decision loss to Jamie Mullarkey and a first-round knockout win over Ottman Azaitar. Because Prado is so young, all that matters at this point is that he remains healthy and gets consistent reps inside the Octagon. He has durability on his side and possesses a strong all-around game. I'm a fan.
Zellhuber's greatest asset is his size. You simply don't fight many lightweights that check in at 6-foot-1 with a 77-inch reach. He's three inches taller than Prado and has an eight-inch reach edge. Keep in mind, Prado is no small guy at 5-foot-10 and will likely be the bigger fighter in the vast majority of his bouts. He's going to have to find a way to consistently get inside against Zellhuber as the much smaller man.
This has the look of a kickboxing match. The two men have combined for nine career submission wins, but virtually all of them have come against low-end competition.
If it does remain a stand-up affair, I think you have to go with the bigger, longer man in Zellhuber. I also expect some ups and downs for Prado given his youth. I expect him to put forth a competent showing here in what should almost assuredly be an entertaining fight, but I'll take the favorite by a slim margin.
THE PICK: Zellhuber
Bantamweight
Raul Rosas (8-1-0) v. Ricky Turcios (13-3-0)
DK Salaries: Rosas ($9,000), Turcios ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Rosas (-265), Turcios (+215)
The youngest fighter in the UFC, having turned just 19 years of age last October, Rosas will be making his fourth appearance with the company. Rosas was grounded and overwhelmed by Christian Rodriguez last April before rebounding with a 54-second knockout win over Terrence Mitchell in September. Rosas has consistently been matched up against low-end competition, and I expect that to be the case for the foreseeable future. His talent is obvious, but there's going to be bumps in the road along the way.
It's a low bar, but Turcios is probably the best opponent Rosas has seen to date. He's 2-1 in three UFC bouts, with both wins coming via split decision. Ricky also has a loss on Dana White's Contender Series on his resume.
Rosas has quickly developed into one of the biggest MMA stars in all of Mexico. With this event being held in Mexico City, it's clear as day the company is hoping Raul rolls through Ricky and puts on a show in the process. I can't help but think this was taken into consideration when the matchup was made.
Turcios is a high-volume striker that brings a ton of energy to the table. I wouldn't term him a technical fighter, but he moves pretty well and stays active. Rosas' striking numbers (1.28 significant strikes landed per minute, 1.52 significant strikes absorbed per minute) are irrelevant because he spends so much time on top.
By far the most likely scenario in that Rosas overwhelms Turcios with his grappling game. Turcios lacks upper-body strength, and I think Raul will be able to force him to the mat repeatedly without issue.
With the crowd firmly behind him, I find it nearly impossible to believe Turcios will get the call in a close decision, and I find it equally difficult to believe Ricky will dominate to the point he takes a clear cut decision.
I have serious reservations about dumping a chunk of my budget on Rosas because he's still young and inexperienced, and there are going to be some stinkers here and there, but he probably wins this fight quite easily.
THE PICK: Rosas
Other Bouts
Women's Strawweight
Yazmin Jauregui (10-1-0) v. Sam Hughes (8-5-0)
DK Salaries: Jauregui ($9,500), Hughes ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Jauregui (-535), Hughes (+400)
THE PICK: Jauregui
Lightweight
Manuel Torres (14-2-0) v. Chris Duncan (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Torres ($8,300), Duncan ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Torres (-160), Duncan (+135)
THE PICK: Duncan
Bantamweight
Cristian Quinonez (18-4-0) v. Raoni Barcelos (17-5-0)
DK Salaries: Quinonez ($7,600), Barcelos ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Quinonez (+145), Barcelos (-175)
THE PICK: Quinonez
Flyweight
Jesus Aguilar (9-2-0) v. Mateus Mendonca (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Aguilar ($7,800), Mendonca ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Aguilar (+135), Mendonca (-165)
THE PICK: Mendonca
Flyweight
Edgar Chairez (10-5-0, 1NC) v. Daniel Lacerda (11-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Chairez ($9,300), Lacerda ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Chairez (-355), Lacerda (+280)
THE PICK: Chairez
Lightweight
Claudio Puelles (13-3-0) v. Fares Ziam (14-4-0)
DK Salaries: Puelles ($7,500), Ziam ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Puelles (+180), Ziam (-220)
THE PICK: Ziam
Flyweight
Luis Rodriguez (11-2-0) v. Denys Bondar (16-5-0)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($8,000), Bondar ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (-115), Bondar (-105)
THE PICK: Rodriguez
Flyweight
Victor Altamirano (12-3-0) v. Felipe dos Santos (7-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Altamirano ($7,000), Dos Santos ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Altamirano (+240), Dos Santos (-300)
THE PICK: Dos Santos
Featherweight
Erik Silva (9-2-0) v. Muhammadjon Naimov (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($7,100), Naimov ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Silva (+285), Naimov (-360)
THE PICK: Naimov
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Mexico City with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
