This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 310 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC 310 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a UFC 310 Special with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Flyweight Championship
(C) Alexandre Pantoja (28-5-0) v. Kai Asakura (21-4-0)
DK Salaries: Pantoja ($8,800), Asakura ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Pantoja (-265), Asakura (+215)
Set to turn 35 years of age next April, Pantoja won the UFC Flyweight Championship with a split decision victory over Brandon Moreno in July 2023. He has since successfully defended the belt twice, picking up a pair of unanimous decision wins over Steve Erceg and Brandon Royval. The age is a concern, but Pantoja has legitimately improved as he has gotten older, and the flyweight division on the whole lacks depth. I could very easily see the Brazilian hanging on to his belt for quite a while.
That previously mentioned lack of depth is the reason Asakura, a long-time Rizin standout, is getting a title shot in his first fight with the UFC. I typically don't love that play, but it makes sense here. Too old to be considered a prospect at age 31, Asakura has spent most of his career at bantamweight. He hasn't fought at flyweight since 2017. By all accounts his weight cut is going well, but dropping down a class for the first time in more than seven years in the biggest fight of your career is definitely concerning.
Pantoja is tough as nails and an all-around threat. He doesn't have a knockout win since December 2019, but has always had more power than he gets credit for. Pantoja can afford to be aggressive on the feet because of his elite durability. He has never been finished in his professional career and has constantly displayed an ability to fight through compromising situations, especially in this recent run of success.
Always a good wrestler, Pantoja has taken that aspect of his game to a new level of late. He's landed 23 takedowns in his past three fights. Toss in the fact Pantoja has landed no fewer than 95 significant strikes in those three bouts and you have a guy with the ability to attack his opposition on multiple levels.
At 5-foot-8, Asakura is going to be very big for the weight class. He also has power, with 13 career wins via knockout. On the flip side, his durability isn't the best, as three of his four career losses are via KO. Now, two of those three were against highly rated opposition in Kyoji Horiguchi and Manel Kape, and both came at bantamweight.
On one hand, guys hit harder at 135 pounds. On the flip side, Asakura's body may not be able to take it's typically amount of punishment after a more grueling weight cut.
Pantoja has done well against bigger opposition. Erceg is 5-foot-8 and Royval is 5-foot-9. I don't think Asakura's size edge is going to make much of a difference.
He's a legitimate opponent and almost all flyweight fights are competitive, and I imagine this will be no exception, but I just find it too difficult to back a guy dropping down in weight for the first time in seven-plus years for a title fight in his first bout with the company against a quality champion. Toss in Pantoja's legendary durability, and give me the champ to retain via decision.
THE PICK: Pantoja
Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0-0) v. Ian Garry (15-0-0)
DK Salaries: Rakhmonov ($9,200), Garry ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Rakhmonov (-375), Garry (+295)
Rakhmonov was supposed to headline this event in a 170-pound title fight against Belal Muhammad. The champion withdrew, and Shavkat agreed to stay on the card and fight Garry in what is essentially a No. 1 contender fight. It's a bold move because Garry is a legitimate threat.
Shavkat has been unstoppable since arriving in the UFC in October 2020. He's a perfect 6-0 with the company, with all six wins coming via stoppage (one knockout, five submissions). Rakhmonov hasn't fought the best of the best yet, but his last three wins are all against above-average competition in Stephen Thompson, Geoff Neal and Neil Magny.
Garry was supposed to headline next week's event against Joaquin Buckley, but he gets pushed up here in what is a much bigger fight with higher stakes. Having just turned 27 years of age a couple weeks ago, Garry is 8-0 in the UFC, with wins over the likes of Neal, Magny, Michael Page and Daniel Rodriguez. He's most definitely better than I originally gave him credit for.
On paper, this looks like a pretty rough matchup for Garry. Ian is a high-level striker. He's very good from distance, although it's volume over power. He outworked Neal on the feel and landed a pair of takedowns against both Thompson and Magny.
I'm not sure either option will be on the table here.
Shavkat enters with a three-inch reach edge despite being two inches shorter. The odds of Garry being able to pick him apart on the feet for 15 minutes feel are small.
Rakhmonov has also never allowed a takedown in his UFC career. Garry isn't much of a wrestler, but he can get his opponent to the mat here and there if the circumstances dictate it. Taking down a prime Rakhmonov will be much harder than getting aging veterans like Thompson and Magny to the mat.
This fight feels like it will ultimately be decided by where it takes place. If it's a pretty striking battle fought at distance, that favors Garry. If it's ugly and fought in the trenches, I expect Shavkat to prevail.
I have time for Garry as an underdog play (he's seems quite undervalued), and I'm still not totally convinced Rakhmonov is on par with the best welterweights on the UFC roster, but I think Shavkat has more ways to win. In a five-round fight, I think he can wear Garry down over time.
THE PICK: Rakhmonov
Heavyweight
Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) v. Alexander Volkov (38-10-0)
DK Salaries: Gane ($9,000), Volkov ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Gane (-355), Volkov (+280)
These two were scheduled to fight at UFC 308 in October before a Volkov knee injury forced it to be pushed back a bit. It's a rematch of a June 2021 fight which Gane won via unanimous decision.
Gane was quickly and thoroughly submitted by Jon Jones in March 2023 in a fight for the vacant UFC Heavyweight Championship. He returned in September of last year and knocked out Serghei Spivac in Round 2 in his native France. Spivac was suspiciously terrible in that fight and didn't make Gane work in the least for his victory. Set to turn 35 years of age in April and with all of 14 pro fights under his belt, I don't like the fact Gane's been on the sidelines the past year-plus.
Regular readers of this column are well aware I've always been a Volkov supporter. He's fought six times since the first bout between the two, going 5-1. The lone setback came against the best true heavyweight in the world in Tom Aspinall. Volkov just turned 36 years of age and is closing in on 50 professional fights, but he keeps himself in excellent shape and is very good at fighting to his strengths.
The scorecards in the first fight between the two weren't close. It was a five-round main event, with Gane winning by scores of 50-45, 50-45, and 49-46. The numbers suggest is was considerably closer than that. Gane won the significant strike battle by a 135-115 count. He also attempted the only four takedowns of the fight and failed on each.
I'd be shocked and disappointed, quite frankly, if Volkov employs a similar game plan this time around. Alex is, at heart, a 6-foot-7 kickboxer. Unlike many tall fighters, he excels at fighting at distance. Yes, Gane has a one-inch reach edge, but Volkov is the more technical striker.
That said, I think Volkov needs to try to wrestle, at least to some extent. We've seen time and time again that the path to beating Gane is to make him grapple. He's not good on the mat and is rocking a 50 percent career takedown defense clip. Volkov hasn't landed a takedown since June 2020, and I don't expect him to go out there and spam attempts, but even a couple token tries will create openings on the feet.
I definitely have some concerns regarding Volkov. The age is one. The knee ailment he had not long ago is another.
Like the co-main event, a pretty kickboxing match is going to favor Gane. It plays directly into his hands.
Ciryl closed as roughly a -155 favorite for the first fight. I think that's a fair number. As is, I think he's overpriced. He may very well deserve it considering he won the first bout with ease, and Volkov seems like a tailor-made opponent from a stylistic standpoint, but I still think Alex has enough gas left in the tank to pull an upset. The price tag is certainly right to make that wager.
THE PICK: Volkov
Featherweight
Bryce Mitchell (16-3-0) v. Kron Gracie (5-2-0)
DK Salaries: Mitchell ($9,500), Gracie ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Mitchell (-800), Gracie (+550)
Mitchell has fallen on hard times of late, dropping two of his last three fights. The first setback was against current UFC Featherweight Champion Ilia Topuria back in December 2022, which is totally understandable. Yet, it was the 117-second knockout at the hands of Josh Emmett almost exactly a year ago that is cause for concern. Bryce had no durability issues prior to the Emmett fight, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Unfortunately, it seems highly unlikely his chin will be tested on this evening.
A world-class grappler and member of the famed Gracie family, Kron has never had any success with transitioning to pro MMA. He has all of seven professional fights under his belt at age 36, and he is fresh off back-to-back defeats to Charles Jourdain and Cub Swanson. His last and lone UFC win came over Alex Caceres back in February 2019. I do not expect an improved or altered skill set this time out.
On paper, Mitchell is a fairly favorable matchup for Gracie. Bryce has zero power (literally, he doesn't have a knockout win in his career) and is entirely reliant on his wrestling game for success. He's averaging 3.45 takedowns per 15 minutes and is typically strong from top position. That said, rolling around on the mat with Kron is a recipe for disaster.
Mitchell is an awkward and uncomfortable striker, but I expect him to have a significant edge over Gracie on the feet. I'm very interested in seeing if he'll go with the path of least resistance and ignore his typical grappling-oriented attack in hopes of exploiting Kron's struggles on the feet.
Gracie's win condition in submission or bust. There's almost zero chance he's going to win a decision and even less of a chance he's going to knock Mitchell out.
The price tag on Bryce seems crazy given his struggles of late, and on a 14-fight card I wouldn't blame anyone that decided to pass altogether, but Mitchell is considerably better than Jourdain and lightyears better than an aging Swanson. As long as he doesn't make a foolish mistake, he should handle Gracie with ease.
THE PICK: Mitchell
Featherweight
Nate Landwehr (18-5-0) v. Doo Ho Choi (15-4-1)
DK Salaries: Landwehr ($8,400), Choi ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Landwehr (-140), Choi (+120)
One of the most entertaining fighters in the company, Landwehr has quickly become a fan favorite in the latter stages of his career. He's quietly won four of his last five, with each of the wins resulting in a $50,000 bonus. Landwehr is the ultimate all-action fighter. Every bout he's in turns into a wild brawl, and he almost always possesses more heart and durability than his opponent. It's a dangerous way to live and a poor long-term strategy, but it's entertaining as all heck.
Choi fought just three times from December 2016 to December 2019, losing each one. He returned to fight Kyle Nelson to a majority draw in February 2023 and then upset Bill Algeo via second-round TKO in July. In short, it's nothing short of a miracle he's still with the company, let alone opening the main card of a loaded pay-per-view.
These two guys combine to land upwards of 11 significant strikes per minute. That's the type of fight I think we're going to see. Neither pays any attention to defense, which is the reason both are so entertaining to watch.
Choi probably has more pure power, but the durability edge has to go to Nate despite the fact both men have been knocked out twice in their professional careers.
In terms of grappling, both can mix in a takedown in a pinch, but it isn't a huge part of either's game. Landwehr also has a background in wrestling and has stuffed an excellent 86 percent of the takedown attempts that have come his way during his UFC run.
Choi is a live underdog simply because the power is legitimate and this projects as a brawl, but I like to back Nate in these coin flip fights despite the fact it's common knowledge it could all fall apart on him in an instant. Hopefully it isn't this evening.
THE PICK: Landwehr
OTHER BOUTS
Light Heavyweight
Dominick Reyes (13-4-0) v. Anthony Smith (38-20-0)
DK Salaries: Reyes ($9,100), Smith ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Reyes (-345), Smith (+275)
THE PICK: Smith
Welterweight
Vicente Luque (22-10-1) v. Themba Gorimbo (14-4-0)
DK Salaries: Luque ($7,600), Gorimbo ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Luque (+135), Gorimbo (-160)
THE PICK: Gorimbo
Featherweight
Movsar Evloev (18-0-0) v. Aljamain Sterling (24-4-0)
DK Salaries: Evloev ($8,900), Sterling ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Evloev (-260), Sterling (+210)
THE PICK: Evloev
Welterweight
Randy Brown (19-5-0) v. Bryan Battle (12-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Brown ($7,500), Battle ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Brown (+190), Batlte (-230)
THE PICK: Brown
Catch Weight (195 pounds)
Chris Weidman (16-7-0) v. Eryk Anders (16-8-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Weidman ($8,000), Anders ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Weidman (-115), Anders (-105)
THE PICK: Anders
Flyweight
Cody Durden (17-6-1) v. Joshua Van (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Durden ($7,700), Van ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Durden (+125), Van (-150)
THE PICK: Durden
Welterweight
Michael Chiesa (19-7-0) v. Max Griffin (20-10-0)
DK Salaries: Chiesa ($7,900), Griffin ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Chiesa (+100), Griffin (-120)
THE PICK: Griffin
Lightweight
Clay Guida (38-21-0) v. Chase Hooper (14-3-1)
DK Salaries: Guida ($6,500), Hooper ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Guida (+675), Hooper (-1050)
THE PICK: Hooper
Heavyweight
Kennedy Nzechukwu (13-5-0) v. Lukasz Brzeski (9-5-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Nzechukwu ($9,400), Brzeski ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Nzechukwu (-550), Brzeski (+410)
THE PICK: Nzechukwu
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 310 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
