Tuesday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

To begin, you see a lot about Cash vs GPP plays in Daily Fantasy Sports, but I typically don't believe in Cash vs GPP players, if a player is good, he's usable in any format in my opinion.

I do believe in different Cash vs GPP lineup construction though.

In GPP Tournaments, I think you should have at least one full line stack, potentially two full stacks (or at least two forwards plus a corresponding defenseman). However, in cash-game lineups, you are probably much better off limiting your team-by-team exposure to two players maximum, with an exception of potentially using three players from the same team on smaller slates.

My favorite way to approach cash-game lineups is to choose my top player of the night and use his lower priced linemate. For example, when healthy, Toronto center Auston Matthews is a great play almost nightly, but instead of pairing him with Patrick Marleau, use the cheaper wing line mate -- Kasperi Kapanen -- this way you still get exposure to two-thirds of a top Toronto line, but you save cap space to get more firepower elsewhere in your lineup.

Use this strategy by choosing one or two players from the lines below and mixing up your Cash rosters, instead of full-line stacks as you would in your GPP lineups.

I tend to be fairly math-oriented in my research, but you should not be a slave to your rankings as numbers often lie. That said, my main sources of ranking data include a Shots/Minute, Shooting Percentage, Corsi For/Minute and Corsi Against/Minute player ranking system to determine team pace, offensive and defensive ranks.

For those of you unfamiliar with Corsi, it is a metric to determine puck possession and can also be used for pace considerations. Essentially, a Corsi For (CF) event occurs every time the specific player is on the ice when a shot is taken – whether that shot is on goal, off target, or block does not matter – any shot is a Corsi For event. Conversely if the opposing team takes a shot while a specific player is on the ice, that is a Corsi Against (CA) event. Different metrics look at the ratio of CF vs. CA either as a Percentage or Plus/Minus ratio.

For those of you familiar with my articles, I've made a small change to the nomenclature of my Rating System, which has an average 246 Rating/Game per team (0.82/min per player). With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 287 (CHI) to a worst of 226 (NYR), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 221 (NSH) to a worst of 283 (OTT) – these numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player callups.

Slate Preview: Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Apparently, the NHL has decided they are only going to offer games on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays as we have a huge 11-game slate on Tuesday night, followed by a single game on Wednesday, then 13 games on Thursday, three games Friday, and then 12 more games on Saturday! The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

Expensive Line Stacks

PIT2 vs NYI: Evgeni Malkin (8700 FD, 7900 DK), Phil Kessel (8100 FD, 7000 DK), Carl Hagelin (3800 FD, 3800 DK) – Death, Taxes, and PIT2 at home. Even though they've been better on the road so far this year, a nine-goal game at Calgary has skewed the stats early in the season. Over the past two seaons, Malkin and Kessel have scored nearly 61% of their points at home, and a juicy game against the Islanders looms large Tuesday. PIT1 is an option as well as Sidney Crosby has been red-hot with five goals and two assists in the past three games.

SJ2 vs NYR: Logan Couture (7200 FD, 6700 DK), Timo Meier (5200 FD, 6600 DK), Tomas Hertl (5700 FD, 5700 DK) – Wow, has this line been hot lately, over the past five games all three players have at least eight points (Couture 5G/5A, Meier 5G/3A, Hertl 2G/7A). They will likely go under-owned again as a lot of East Coast fantasy players eschew the West Coast players that they don't want to stay up late to watch, but against the lowly Rangers (266 DR), it is going to be a big mistake to not have some exposure to SJ2, and on at least on FanDuel they are still cheap enough to pair with Brent Burns (see below).

CLS1 vs DET: Artemi Panarin (7700 FD, 7400 DK), Cam Atkinson (7100 FD, 6900 DK), Pierre-Luc Dubois (5600 FD, 5900 DK) – Columbus' top line went bonkers with all five goals scored by the Blue Jackets in their 5-4 OT victory against Buffalo on Saturday. Detroit has been playing better defense of late, but on the road, a team like Columbus, with a star line, can expose the Red Wings' defensive issues beyond the Dylan Larkin line.

NSH1 vs VGK: Filip Forsberg (8000 FD, 7100 DK), Viktor Arvidsson (6600 FD, 6000 DK), Ryan Johansen (6400 FD, 600 DK) – Another line that is red hot, with a combined eight goals and nine assists over the past three games. Vegas does not allow a lot of shots, but with Malcolm Subban (.871 SV%) confirmed as the starter Tuesday, those lack of shots attempts do not scare me at all in Nashville.

BUF1 vs CGY: Jack Eichel (7400 FD, 7100 DK), Jeff Skinner (6500 FD, 6200 DK), Jason Pominville (4300 FD, 4900 DK) – Buffalo's star line has been one of the hottest lines in the league over the past four games, with nine goals with 14 assists. Outside of the nine-goal allowed game against Pittsburgh, Calgary has not been bad defensively, but they will be coming off a back-to-back, so they should be tired.

Some other top lines worth a look every night: BOS1 at CAR, NJ1 at TB, and TB1 vs NJ

Value Line Stacks
ANA1 vs PHI: Ryan Getzlaf (6900 FD, 6100 DK), Rickard Rakell (6900 FD, 5500 DK), Adam Henrique (4800 FD, 3600 DK) – Anaheim is still struggling to get shots on goal, but the top line is starting to gel for at least the Getzlaf/Rakell duo, who have 30 shots plus three goals and three assists over the past four games. They are not going to be highly owned Tuesday, but I think you could see a two-goal performance from this line at home against Philadelphia, where Anaheim can avoid the Giroux/Couturier defense for the majority of the game.

MON1 vs DAL: Brendan Gallagher (6500 FD, 5600 DK), Tomas Tatar (4700 FD, 5000 DK), Phillip Danault (4700 FD, 4100 DK) &
MON2 vs DAL: Max Domi (6100 FD, 5200 DK), Jonathan Drouin (5600 FD, 4900 DK), Artturi Lehkonen (4300 FD, 4600 DK) – This is where I think you can get some low percentage upside Tuesday, as Montreal has scored three or more goals in seven straight games. The best way to get coverage here it is to mix the lines to get exposure to the top Power Play (Gallagher, Tatar, Domi, Drouin & Petry) -- I'd look to cut Danault from MON1 to add in Domi, or cut Lehkonen from MON2 to add in Gallagher.

ARI1 vs OTT: Clayton Keller (6100 FD, 5700 DK), Alex Galchenyuk (5100 FD, 5400 DK), Richard Panik (3600 FD, 3400 DK) – Here's a good cap saver if you want to fire up the Pittsburgh and San Jose/Burns combos, and don't look now, but Arizona has scored four or more goals in four of the last five games, including a seven-goal outpouring Saturday against Tampa Bay, where this line contributed a pair of goals. Ottawa is allowing the third-most goals per game (3.50) and second-most shots per game (37.9) and still remain in the cellar in my defensive rating figure (280 DR).

Solo Forward Options

These players can be played as good solo values on FanDuel:

Kyle Palmieri NJ1 at TB (6400 FD, 7200 DK) – Palmieri might be one of the most underpriced players on FanDuel (eight goals, five assists in eight games).

J.T. Miller TB1 vs NJ (4900 FD, 5300 DK) – Miller has top-line duties and a spot on the top power-play unit.

Alex Tuch VGK2 at NSH (4500, 5600 DK) – Tuch is the leader of a solid VGK2 line and has a spot on the top power play.

These players can be played as good solo values on DraftKings:

Sidney Crosby PIT1 vs NYI (8900 FD, 7300 DK) – Evgeni Malkin is 7900 on DraftKings, with the way Crosby is playing, he is an infinitely better value, but I do prefer the Malkin line stack to the Crosby line.

Steven Stamkos TB1 vs NJ (7400 FD, 5600 DK) – The Lightning will start scoring consistently at some point. To be able to get an MVP-caliber weapon at this price on DraftKings is usually hard to do.

Sean Couturier PHI1 at ANH (6400 FD, 4900 DK) – I like the Ducks in this matchup, but this is too cheap for a player as talented as Couturier.

Expensive Defensemen

Brent Burns SJ vs NYR (7300 FD, 7000 DK) – Burns has finally started to get rolling after recording only four assists in his first seven games, he has tallied a pair of goals and seven assists in his last five games. As if this was not enough to keep trying to fit Burns into your lineup, a tasty home matchup against the lowly Rangers (266 DR) should make Burns the top blue-line option on the slate Tuesday.

P.K. Subban NSH vs VGK (6300 FD, 6100 DK) / Roman Josi NSH vs VGK (5700 FD, 5400 DK) – Probably the best pair of defensemen in the league, outside of the Burns/Karlsson duo in San Jose, but picking the right one nightly in fantasy can be a pain. Subban has an interesting narrative tonight facing his younger brother in goal for Vegas, might be worth a look especially on teams where you use NSH1 for the power play correlation. On teams where you do not use NSH1, I might take the discount and go with Josi.

Zach Werenski CLS vs DET (5500 FD, 5700 DK) / Seth Jones CLS vs DET (5200 FD, 6200 DK) – Detroit has improved dramatically defensively in their past five games (2.6 goals allowed/game), but they are still a very bad team (2-3-0 over that span and 2-7-2 overall). Werenski has continued to produce following the return of Seth Jones from injury and is currently on a five-game point streak (one goal, five assists). Jones returned from a knee injury and has recorded a goal and nine shots in his first three games of the season. Both are in play on FanDuel, but I'd fade Jones at the price on DraftKings.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson ARI vs OTT (5200 FD, 4800 DK) – OEL is a great DraftKings value. Like the entire Arizona offense, Ekman-Larsson got off to a slow start, but has recorded five assists in the past five games. The juicy matchup against Ottawa should keep the hot Arizona offense going and Ekman-Larsson should benefit and be in line for assist and scoring chances.

Value Defensemen

Jack Johnson PIT vs NYI (3600 FD, 4400 DK) – Historically a better defender than offensive talent, Johnson was recently promoted to second power-play unit and rewarded the Penguins with a power-play goal in his first game in the role. With 11 shots, a goal and an assist over the past four games, the plus-matchup against the Islanders makes Johnson a great value Tuesday.

Jeff Petry MON vs DAL (4500 FD, 5000 DK) – As mentioned above, Montreal has scored three goals or more in seven straight games, making them a prime candidate for value plays Tuesday home against Dallas, who has yet to win this year on the road (3.67 goals allowed per game). Petry had top power-play duties and has a goal and three assists in the past four games.

Hampus Lindholm vs PHI (4500 FD, 4800 DK) – The masses flock to Cam Fowler usually when Anaheim is in play, but Lindholm will continue to be my choice at defense for the Ducks. He doesn't draw a top power-play spot, but he's still on the second unit, and garners more ice time than Fowler on average. He's also outscored Fowler on the year seven points to four, while recording the only two goals scored by the duo.

Goalies

One mistake I made when I first started playing DFS Hockey was overvaluing wins for goalies. The stat you want to focus on is saves. Wins and losses are much harder to predict than you may think, and while I do not completely ignore the factor of wins, I think many players overrate it when choosing their goalie. I do not suggest starting a bad goalie facing a team like Toronto or Tampa Bay in order to accumulate saves, because goals allowed are important to avoid as well. As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Martin Jones SJ vs NYR (8500 FD, 8300 DK) – The biggest betting favorite on the board Tuesday (-260) should be able to rack up a solid save total while not getting into too much trouble in the goals allowed department. Jones' stats are not world-beating (2.64 GAA, .900 SV%), but he has won four starts in a row, and the Sharks' offense should provide him with some cushioning in the challenge of recording win number five in a row.

Jaroslav Halak BOS at CAR (8000 FD, 7500 DK) – This one is dangerous, as Carolina peppers the net to a league best number of 41.5 shots on goal per game, but they are only a middle-of-the-pack goal scoring team (3.0 goals per game, tied for 16th in the league). With two elite defensive lines, it will be hard for Carolina to avoid BOS1/BOS2 for a majority of the game, so that puts Halak (1.43 GAA, .945 SV%) in a great spot for a big save total, and even though Carolina is a slight favorite (-130), I think that line should be on the other side as Boston should be slightly favored here.

Antti Raanta ARI vs OTT (7700 FD, 8000 DK) – Arizona should be able to keep their offense chugging along against Ottawa (280 DR), but more shockingly Arizona has been playing some great defense in front of the goaltenders, allowing only a single goal in four of the last five games. Currently, the Coyotes are allowing the fewest goals against in the league (2.0 per game).

Ryan Miller ANH vs PHI (7800 FD, 7900 DK) – John Gibson would've been a better play for $8,300 on FanDuel, but I still like Miller at $7,800, although I might pass on DraftKings for $7,900. I know Anaheim has lost five straight, but the Ducks are allowing a league high 39.1 shots on goal per game, the upside for a massive save total is there. Philadelphia has awful goaltending and defense, Miller (2.17 GAA, .938 SV%) looks to be a solid option Tuesday especially when they are favored to win the game.