This article is part of our DFS NHL Breakdown series.
The purpose of this article will be to give you a variety of options and strategy thoughts for the daily slate in the NHL for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
To begin, you see and hear a lot about Cash vs GPP plays in Daily Fantasy Sports, but I typically don't believe in Cash vs GPP players. If a player is good, I believe he's usable in any format.
I do believe in different Cash vs GPP lineup construction though.
In GPP Tournaments, I think you should have at least one full line stack, potentially two full stacks (or at least two forwards plus a corresponding defenseman). However, in cash-game lineups, you are probably much better off limiting your team-by-team exposure to two players maximum, with an exception of potentially using three players from the same team on smaller slates.
My favorite way to approach cash-game lineups is to choose my top player of the night and use his lower priced linemate. For example, Toronto center Auston Matthews is a great play almost nightly, but instead of pairing him with Patrick Marleau, use the cheaper wing linemate -- Kasperi Kapanen -- this way you still get exposure to two-thirds of a top Toronto line, but you save cap space to get more firepower elsewhere in your lineup.
Use this strategy by choosing one or two players from the lines below and mixing up your cash-game rosters, instead of full-line stacks as you would in your GPP lineups.
I tend to be fairly math-oriented in my research, but you should not be a slave to your rankings as numbers often lie. That said, my main sources of ranking data include a Shots/Minute, Shooting Percentage, Corsi For/Minute and Corsi Against/Minute player ranking system to determine team pace, offensive and defensive ranks.
For those of you unfamiliar with Corsi, it is a metric to determine puck possession and can also be used for pace considerations. Essentially, a Corsi For (CF) event occurs every time a specific player is on the ice when a shot is taken – whether that shot is on goal, off target, or blocked does not matter – any shot is a Corsi For event. Conversely, if the opposing team takes a shot while a specific player is on the ice, that is a Corsi Against (CA) event. Different metrics look at the ratio of CF vs. CA either as a percentage or Plus/Minus ratio.
For reference in the article below, my system has an average 246 Corsi/Game, and with the current rosters I have loaded, the CF range is a best of 278 (CAR) to a worst of 225 (COL), and the CA range is a best of 221 (BOS) to a worst of 271 (OTT) – these numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player callups.
Expensive Line Stacks
NJ1 vs DAL: Taylor Hall (7800 FD, 7400 DK), Kyle Palmieri (6400 FD, 6800 DK), Nico Hischier (5900 FD, 5200 DK) – Kyle Palmieri (six goals in first three games of the season) would be getting a lot more publicity if Auston Matthews wasn't on his epic goal-scoring stretch. New Jersey draws a struggling Dallas team traveling back-to-back following a loss in Ottawa.
PIT2 vs VAN: Evgeni Malkin (8600 FD, 6700 DK), Phil Kessel (7900 FD, 7000 DK), Carl Hagelin (3700 FD, 3900 DK) – Vancouver has played solid hockey lately, but star rookie Elias Pettersson suffered a concussion Saturday and is out for at least a week, which should deflate the Canucks a bit. I like the Penguins to strike fast and often in this matchup as Vancouver is playing the fifth game of a brutal early-season, six-game road trip. This Pens' line is deadly, even moreso at home, and Vancouver holds a below average CA (255).
WPG1 vs EDM: Mark Scheifele (7300 FD, 6400 DK), Blake Wheeler (7300 FD, 6300 DK), Kyle Connor (5600 FD, 6700 DK) – Edmonton got their first win of the season in their last game, but it was against a lowly Rangers team; the Oilers had given up nine goals in their previous games against competent offenses (NJ 5-2, BOS 4-1). Connor looks very pricey on DK, but he's had the strongest start to the season of the group.
PHI1 vs FLA: Claude Giroux (7500 FD, 6100 DK), Jakub Voracek (7300 FD, 6200 DK), Sean Couturier (6900 FD, 5900 DK) – This is not news, but Florida is awful without Roberto Luongo, so any time you get a line of this quality at home against the Panthers, they should be in your mix of top plays. The Flyers laid a big egg at home last time out against Vegas, but they showed their firepower in the previous game at Ottawa where the top line produced four goals and four assists – I expect this game to be more in the mold of the Ottawa game flow.
TB1 vs CAR: Steven Stamkos (7600 FD, 6100 DK), Brayden Point (6400 FD, 5900 DK), Yanni Gourde (5300 FD, 5500 DK) &
TB2 vs CAR: Nikita Kucherov (8100 FD, 7300 DK), Tyler Johnson (5100 FD, 4900 DK), Ondrej Palat (5000 FD, 4200 DK) – Both of these lines are in play in what should be a high-flying game against Carolina. Tampa Bay was notorious for shifting pieces around last year, and it looks like they found a nice shuffle with these pairings as they put up eight goals Saturday against Columbus, with TB1 recording three goals and TB2 finding the net once with four assists. Statistically through Corsi, Carolina has an elite defense (223 CA), but they give up quality shots as they have allowed 3.0 goals per game even on the low CA figure. If Carolina continues its torrid offensive pace (278 CF), the Lightning will be forced to match the pace.
CAR1 at TB: Sebastian Aho (6800 FD, 6800 DK), Teuvo Teravainen (6000 FD, 5500 DK), Micheal Ferland (4700 FD, 5600 DK) – Initially, I was not going to include this line in the write-up, suggesting using CAR2 instead, but then Louis Domingue was named the starting goalie for Tampa Bay – this puts all Carolina skaters in play Tuesday. With eight goals and 15 assists through six games, this line is making a name for itself as one of the elite groups in the league, but their price tag is still reasonable.
Value Line Stacks
CAR2 at TB: Jordan Staal (5800 FD, 5600 DK), Justin Williams (5400 FD, 5200 DK), Warren Foegele (3900 FD, 4600 DK) – Of course, you can choose to play CAR1 instead, they are having a great year; but there are some heavy hitters playing Tuesday, so if you need some cap relief while building NJ1, PIT2, WPG1 or PHI1 stacks, instead use the CAR2 line which should face lesser defensive strength from Tampa Bay, which still gets you exposure to this high-paced affair.
MIN1 vs ARI: Eric Staal (7100 FD, 6200 DK), Jason Zucker (5800 FD, 6600 DK), Jordan Greenway (3300 FD, 4200 DK) – This was my top value line option in last Thursday's article and they went bonkers at home against Chicago, scoring three goals and appearing on a large percentage of GPP winning lineups. They are back again at a solid price point at home against a poor Arizona defense (253 CA).
VGK2 vs BUF: Max Pacioretty (5800 FD, 5400 DK), Erik Haula (4700 FD, 4700 DK), Tomas Nosek (3500 FD, 3400 DK) – Buffalo has been Jekyll & Hyde so far this year, but I'll play the numbers and run with a nice value in VGK2 at home on The Strip. Last year, the home ice advantage for Vegas was undeniable, and with Buffalo having two nights off after playing in nearby Phoenix on Saturday, they may be in line for the Vegas Hangover. VGK1 is in play as well, but for the discount I like the second line value a little more.
Note: Tomas Hyka (3000 FD, 2700 DK) is skating on the second line in place of Nosek to begin Tuesday's game.
DAL2 at NJ: Alexander Radulov (6800 FD, 7200 DK), Jason Spezza (4900 FD, 4300 DK), Valeri Nichushkin (4200 FD, 4400 DK) – Keep an eye on the pre-game lines Tuesday as Dallas could overreact to the loss in Ottawa on Monday and shift Radulov back to the top line; but if they hold pat, this line could provide some sneaky value as New Jersey focuses on shutting down the Seguin/Benn pairing on DAL1. Based on my numbers, DAL2 actually rates slightly better in CF than DAL1 at a fraction of the price.
COL2 at NYR: Alex Kerfoot (4400 FD, 4400 DK), Colin Wilson (3800 FD, 3800 DK), J.T. Compher (4000 FD, 3300 DK) – This is my pure punt line of the night, while COL1 deservedly draws all the attention as one of the best lines in hockey, when they are on the road, they also draw the best defense opponents have to give. COL2 can sneak in against the lesser resistance of an already poor Rangers' defense. All three guys also play together on the same Power Play unit.
Update: J.T. Compher is out indefinitely with a head injury; Tyson Jost (4300 FD, 3800 DK) replaces him.
Solo Forward Options
These players can play be played as fill-ins with GPP stacks or in cash-game mixes.
Jonathan Marchessault VGK1 vs BUF (7100 FD, 7100 DK) – The Golden Knights as a whole have been off to a slow start in 2018-19, but Marchessault has been one of the bright spots with two goals and four assists while adding 23 shots on goal through six games. Linemates William Karlsson and Reilly Smith have not be up to the levels of last year, but if you want some more exposure to the Vegas offense tonight, consider using Marchessault by himself, or paired with a defenseman.
Jake Guentzel PIT1 vs VAN (6700 FD, 6400 DK) – Sidney Crosby has been a bit too erratic for me to suggest using the whole PIT1 line, but Guentzel is a great way to get exposure to Crosby without paying the hefty price. The PIT1 line is also picking up Derick Brassard for Tuesday's game, and while Brassard will be listed as a Wing for the game, he is a Center by trade and this could make Guentzel the beneficiary of extra passes and scoring attempts.
Wayne Simmonds PHI3 vs FLA (5600 FD, 5800 DK) – Simmonds is a great solo option home against Florida, but he is also a path to differentiate your PHI1 stack, either skipping on the corresponding defenseman, or by using him instead of one of the PHI1 forwards (on DraftKings you can just load up all of them if you can afford it).
Brayden Point TB1 vs CAR (6400 FD, 5900 DK), Ondrej Palat TB2 vs CAR (5000 FD, 4200 DK) & Tyler Johnson TB2 vs CAR (5100 FD, 4900 FD) – Playing Point with Palat on FanDuel or with Johnson on DraftKings could be an interesting way to get some exposure to both the TB1/TB2 lines with a pair of value plays. Using those combinations, you still get a center and a wing (Point is a center on FD / wing on DK), plus all three guys play on the second power-play unit.
Warren Foegele CAR2 at TB (3900 FD, 4600 DK) – Gonna be honest, I'm including Foegele mainly because I want to spread the nickname we have given him, "SuperBad" is proving to be more than a 2017-18 flash in the pan with three goals and an assist, along with 19 shots on goal through six games, I think there are far worse fill-ins you could go with Tuesday.
Expensive Defensemen
Victor Hedman TB vs CAR (6200 FD, 5800 DK) – Hedman finally got on the scoresheet in the eight-goal outburst Saturday night with his first goal of the year, and he should be in for a lot more work in Tuesday's game against Carolina. With top power-play duties and more than 22 minutes of ice time per game, Hedman should be one of the top blueliners of the night.
Shayne Gostisbehere PHI vs FLA (6400 FD, 6000 DK) – Gostisbehere is off to a solid start (1 G, 2 A in five games), but there's another level to reach here as he is peppering the net with 4.4 shots per game (the most of any defenseman). As the power-play quarterback on one of the deadliest units in the league, I like his chances at multiple points Tuesday.
Mathew Dumba MIN vs ARI (4400 FD, 4900 DK) – More of a value play on FD, but Dumba is one of the three big ice team eaters for the Wild (24:20 ATOI), along with Ryan Suter (26:35) and Jared Spurgeon (24:03), but Dumba has consistently performed at a level commensurate with Suter offensively and comes at a discount on both sites. A home game against Arizona (253 CA) should provide him an opportunity to have solid back-to-back games after scoring a goal Monday night in Nashville.
Value Defensemen
Will Butcher NJ vs DAL (4200 FD, 3800 DK) – This price is simply too cheap on both sites for the talented second-year blueliner. Not only does he have two assists in three games so far this year, he has the positive matchup home against Dallas off a back-to-back, plus you get the top unit power-play coordination when you play him with the NJ1 stack.
Justin Faulk CAR at TB (4800 FD, 4500 DK) – Teammate Dougie Hamilton has drawn the higher salary every night of the season at both FanDuel and DraftKings, but Faulk continues to be the top unit power-play option for Carolina and has outperformed Hamilton in FanDuel points (Hamilton has slightly more DraftKings points). Faulk provides a nice complement to the CAR1 or CAR2 line stacks.
Colin Miller VGK vs BUF (4200 FD, 4100 DK) – Miller will likely be on my value play list until he is either over $5,000 or he's dead. He provides big upside while Nate Schmidt is out with an injury. Miller is a solid combo play with the VGK2 line stack, as you will get three guys on the second power-play unit, plus Max Pacioretty on the top unit.
Goalies
One mistake I made when I first started playing DFS Hockey was overvaluing wins for goalies. The stat you want to focus on is saves. Wins and losses are much harder to predict than you may think, and while I do not completely ignore the factor of wins, I think many players over-rate it when choose their goalie. I do not suggest starting a bad goalie facing a team like Toronto or Tampa Bay in order to accumulate saves, because goals allowed are important to avoid as well.
Connor Hellebuyck WPG vs EDM (8400 FD, 8400 DK) – He's more of a top option on FanDuel, as $8,400 is a much bigger chunk of the salary cap on DraftKings. Edmonton as an opponent offers good opportunity to earn saves (31.8 projected shots on goal) at a poor shooting rate (8.2% versus a league average 9.1%), but also positive value in the win department as the Oilers also have a subpar defense (248 CA). Bookmakers agree as Winnipeg is the second biggest favorite on the board at -200.
Casey DeSmith PIT vs VAN (7900 FD, 7700 DK) – I mentioned Winnipeg as the second biggest favorite on the board, well here is the top dog, Pittsburgh is -230 to beat Vancouver. The biggest negative here is that Vancouver may be bad, but not quite bad enough to record a shutout, without Elias Pettersson, my rankings have them as one of the bottom-four offenses in the league (228 CF). So while I think DeSmith has the best shot at a win and shutout, if he does get beat for a few goals, he could win and be a slight disappointment.
Keith Kinkaid NJ vs DAL (8100 FD, 7000 DK) – This is your DraftKings cap-saver option Tuesday night. While Dallas has elite players on offense, they are susceptible to struggling on the road (16-25 on the road in 2017-18). With Dallas coming off a loss on Monday night, and traveling internationally from Ottawa, I think Kinkaid offers great value on DraftKings on Tuesday after winning three starts in a row, only allowing four goals on 79 shots (1.35 GAA, .949 SV%).
Devan Dubnyk MIN vs ARI (8600 FD, 8500 DK) – He's a FanDuel only play. I still think Dubnyk is cruising on the reputation he gathered in the first half of the 2016-17 season when he was having one of the best goaltender seasons of the past decade, but since then he has been a middle-of-the-road starter. A home start against the Coyotes should be a nice spot though, as Arizona is currently fifth in the league in shots on goal per game but are currently averaging only a half a goal per game.
