Thursday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

My rankings are determined by a Corsi-based Rating System that I created, the average Rating is about 49 per game. Like Corsi, this represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, but it's also adjusted for shooting percentage and save percentage. Any shot attempt counts, whether it is on goal, off target or blocked, which is why the average hovers around 49, rather than the league average shots on goal (31.4). With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 56.5 (TOR) to a worst of 44.8 (NYR), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 44.8 (TB) to a worst of 58.4 (OTT) -- Ottawa is so bad, the next worst team is 53.1 (NJ). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. I am hoping these values clearly show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game.

Slate Preview: Thursday, December 13, 2018

The Main Slate on Thursday has a smaller than normal eight-game slate with one of the games of the year in Tampa as the Lightning host Toronto. The game is the highest betting total on the board (6.5 over -130), but I believe this game is going to disappoint for fantasy purposes; I do not think you should fade this game if you play multiple lineups, but if you are a single lineup player I feel your best bet to avoid this game for the most part.

The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

*All stats are projected figures based on my ranking formulas, using 2017-18 and current year statistics.

Expensive Line Stacks

(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, that means they are not on either power-play line.)

SJ1 vs. DAL: Logan Couture-1 ($7,300 FD, $6,400 DK), Timo Meier-2 ($6,100 FD, $7,000 DK), Tomas Hertl-1 ($5,100 FD, $6,100 DK) - Dallas will be traveling North from Anaheim after being thrashed 6-3 by the offensively-challenged Ducks, and now will be starting their backup goaltender against a much more skilled team in San Jose. In their past eight games, the SJ1 trio has recorded 10 goals and 14 assists. The power-play usage is a little mixed, but Meier is too hot to cut from the group with four goals and five assists over that eight-game stretch.

WPG1 vs. EDM: Mark Scheifele-1 ($8,600 FD, $7,100 DK), Blake Wheeler-1 ($7,500 FD, $7,100 DK), Nikolaj Ehlers-2 ($5,600 FD, $5,800 DK)
WPG2 vs. EDM: Patrik Laine-1 ($8,300 FD, $7,400 DK), Kyle Connor-1 ($5,300 FD, $6,200 DK), Bryan Little-2 ($4,800 FD, $4,700 DK) - On Tuesday, I wrote that Winnipeg was in a great position against a Chicago team that was old and slow, well on Thursday they are in a great position against an Edmonton team that is young and bad defensively (49.1 DR). The struggle with Winnipeg is choosing the correct guys each night, leaving you with many options to choose from: WPG1, WPG2, big WPGPP1 stack, value WPGPP1 stack (no Laine), or even the random mix of top-six forwards looking to hit most of the goals. My only suggestion would be to lock in Scheifele and work from there, but the other five guys are all in play to be on or off your Winnipeg combos depending on how you like the rest of your roster makeup.

BUF1 vs. ARI: Jack Eichel-1 ($7,800 FD, $8,000 DK), Jeff Skinner-1 ($6,900 FD, $6,700 DK), Sam Reinhart-1 ($5,700 FD, $5,800 DK) - BUF1 kept on churning Tuesday with another two goals and two assists to bring their six-game total to 12 goals and 11 assists; they encounter another good spot Thursday at home against Arizona (50.3 DR). The only negative in this game for Buffalo is a league-best 90.6% penalty-kill rate from Arizona, but this rate is so far out of line with the rest of the league it is bound to regress towards the mean sooner than later.

CLS1 vs. LA: Cam Atkinson-1 ($7,100 FD, $7,200 DK), Artemi Panarin-2 ($7,500 FD, $6,400 DK), Pierre-Luc Dubois-1 ($5,500 FD, $6,000 DK) - This should be a low-owned option Thursday, but there is some upside here as Columbus gets to avoid the strong defense of Anze Kopitar out of stoppages, the other three Kings lines do not offer much in way of resistance to the offensive talent of CLS1. We had hoped from more from CLS1 on Tuesday against Vancouver, but each player did record an assist, so another goal from the trio and they would have at least been serviceable. I think Columbus uses their second line to slow down LA1, while CLS1 will have their way with LA2/3 for most of their ice time.

Also in play: TB1/2 vs TOR, TOR1 at TB, MIN1 vs FLA, SJ2 vs DAL (Three Wing lineups on FanDuel can provide some differential as players usually pass on those lines)

VALUE LINE STACKS

MON1 vs. CAR: Jonathan Drouin-1 ($5,700 FD, $5,900 DK), Max Domi-1 ($6,300 FD, $5,200 DK), Andrew Shaw-2 ($3,700 FD, $5,000 DK) - MON1 has produced five goals and 11 assists in the last six games and they will likely fly under-the-radar in ownership Thursday. Carolina does have a fairly strong defensive resume with a league low shots allowed per game, but they have the seventh-most goals allowed per game, so there is a door open here for Montreal to put up some fantasy points. Goaltender Curtis McElhinney appears to be set to return from an injury, but he was torched for five goals on 23 shots in his last game at San Jose and should be rusty -- I like this spot for Montreal.

MIN2 vs. FLA: Zach Parise-1 ($6,700 FD, $6,300 DK), Charlie Coyle-2 ($4,400 FD, $4,400 DK), Nino Niederreiter-2 ($4,600 FD, $4,000 DK) - MIN2 has a lot going right at the moment: they have scored five goals and five assists in the past four games, they draw a plus matchup against the struggling Panthers defense (50.6 DR), and most importantly, they are Minnesota's best defensive forward unit which garners them extra ice time.

NSH1 vs. VAN: Ryan Johansen-1 ($5,700 FD, $5,400 DK), Kevin Fiala-2 ($4,400 FD, $4,800 DK), Ryan Hartman-2 ($3,500 FD, $4,400 DK) - Even though Nashville has struggled offensively after losing stars Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson to injury, the NSH1 line can still put points on the board; they only garnered a Johansson assist Tuesday, but they still have four goals and five assist in the last five games and have an great matchup at home against the Canucks.

Also in play: TOR2 at TB, NSH2/3 vs VAN, LA2 at CLS

Solo Forward Options

Auston Matthews-1 TOR2 at TB ($8,400 FD, $7,900 DK) & Steven Stamkos-1 TB1 vs. TOR ($8,000 FD, $7,300 DK) - I stated above that I do not particularly like this game for fantasy value, but it would be silly to completely write this game off your options; if I am diving in here, these are the two guys I'm looking at for solo options, because it's hard to use Nikita Kucherov without Brayden Point, and it's hard to use John Tavares without Mitch Marner.

Joe Pavelski-1 SJ2 vs. DAL ($7,800 FD, $6,100 DK) - Pavelski is an elite option on DraftKings at $6,100, but he is in play on FanDuel as well after scoring seven goals and three assists on 24 shots in his past eight games.

Craig Smith-1 NSH2 vs. VAN ($5,200 FD, $5,100 DK) - Smith defines "Solo Option" in my opinion: he's a mid-range salary, he's on a good offensive team, he's the best option on his line, and he's on a top power-play unit; on nights where Nashville draws a positive matchup, such as at home against Vancouver, then Smith is going to be on my options of solo plays. The return of Kyle Turris centering NSH2 is also a boost to Smith's outlook.

Joonas Donskoi-0 SJ2 vs. DAL ($3,800 FD, $3,500 DK) - If you can't afford to get Joe Pavelski into your lineup, consider the value that Donskoi provides you with exposure to Pavelski and Evander Kane.

Defensemen

Darnell Nurse-1 EDM at WPG ($4,000 FD, $5,000 DK) - I am not overly confident in Edmonton's offense with the injury to Oscar Klefbom, but the one play it does benefit is Nurse who now takes over top power-play duties and gains extra ice time with Connor McDavid and company.

Erik Karlsson-2 SJ vs. DAL ($7,000 FD, $6,000 DK) - Brent Burns gets all the publicity, but Karlsson has been the hotter defenseman during the recent 4-1 stretch put together by San Jose with five assists and 23 shots in the last five games.

Mathew Dumba-1 MIN vs. FLA ($5,800 FD, $5,500 DK) / Jared Spurgeon-2 MIN vs. FLA ($4,600 FD, $5,100 DK) - Both Dumba and Spurgeon had big games on Tuesday and while Dumba has been a man possessed this season, I think Spurgeon may be the better value on FanDuel to pair with your MIN2 stacks as he had power play correlation with two of the three linemates. Regardless, if you do go with MIN2 make sure to include one of these two guys with them.

Mattias Ekholm-2 NSH vs. VAN ($4,500 FD, $4,700 DK) - Ekholm has outplayed the more expensive Ryan Ellis of late and while Roman Josi is the clear fantasy leader of the Predators, I feel that Ekholm (four assists in last five games) provides a better bang for the buck where you are looking for value options to keep the Nashville stack prices down in order to play a big line like Winnipeg or Buffalo.

Also in play: Brent Burns-1 SJ vs. DAL ($7,300 FD, $6,300 DK), Roman Josi-1 NSH vs. VAN ($6,300 FD, $6,200 DK), Dustin Byfuglien-1 WPG vs. EDM ($5,800 FD, $5,800 DK), Tyler Myers-2 WPG vs. EDM ($3,800 FD, $4,000 DK)

Goalies

As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Carey Price MON vs. CAR ($8,800 FD, $8,100 DK) - Although Montreal lost their last game 7-1, Antti Niemi started and allowed all seven goals before Price mopped up with nine saves; Carolina continues to be a mystery with league best shot totals and high danger chances but are 29th in goals scored per game -- this combination has provided opposing goals with some large save totals. Price has gone seven straight starts without allowing more than three goals (2.33 GAA, .919 SV%) and has won four of his last five starts.

Carter Hutton BUF vs. ARI ($8,300 FD, $8,200 DK) - Hutton will return to the ice after missing the last three games with an upper body injury, he will get to face an Arizona team who has only scored four goals once in their past six games. Coupled with the offensive support the Sabres should provide, Hutton appears to be one of the better options on the slate Thursday.

Pekka Rinne NSH vs. VAN ($9,000 FD, $8,400 DK) - Rinne allowed four goals on 25 shots in Vancouver last Thursday but playing at home in Nashville and getting Kyle Turris back from injury (one of the Predators' top defensive forwards) should flip the script a bit. Vancouver is a very talented team, but also a very young team that is prone to struggling on the road and this is their fourth road game in six nights.

Also in play: Sergei Bobrovsky CLS vs. LA ($8,400 FD, $7,900 DK), Devan Dubnyk MIN vs. FLA ($8,600 FD, $8,300 DK), Frederik Andersen TOR at TB ($9,300 FD, $7,500 DK – huge upside DraftKings GPP option)