This article is part of our NHL Picks series.
NHL Betting Picks: Expert NHL Bets and Props for Tampa Bay Lightning 
at Toronto Maple Leafs 
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The Tampa Bay Lightning (3-1-0) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (3-2-0) meet at Scotiabank Arena on Monday night in the standalone game in the NHL. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed or streamed on NHL Network.
The Lightning opened the season with three consecutive victories, including a 4-1 win in the opener on the road against the Carolina Hurricanes on Oct. 11. It was an emotional game, as the team traveled early to get out of town with Hurricane Milton affecting the Bay Area. In fact, the second end of the home-and-home was postponed.
The Lightning have dealt with some early adversity, and they have persevered. After winning the first three, Tampa Bay kicked off the three-game road trip with a 5-4 loss as moderate favorites (-140) in Saturday's game at Ottawa as the Over (6.5) cashed. The first goals allowed matched the total given up in the first three outings combined.
The Maple Leafs suffered a 4-1 loss on home ice against the fellow Original Six team New York Rangers, also having a three-game win streak halted. Auston Matthews accounted for the team's only goal in Toronto's lowest scoring game since being shut out 1-0 in the season opener at Montreal on Oct. 9.
Andrei Vasilevskiy (3-1-0, 2.52 GAA, .901 SV%) is projected to start for the Lightning, while Anthony Stolarz (2-2-0, 1.79 GAA, .937 SV%) is expected to get the nod again for the Leafs.
The early scoring leader for the Lightning and it should be no surprise, is Nikita Kucherov. He has rolled up seven goals and nine points in just four games while turning in a plus-6 rating. He has a goal and assist on the man advantage, while also leading the team with 22 shots on goal. Only he and Victor Hedman have managed double-digit SOG through the first four outings.
For the Maple Leafs, Max Domi and Mitch Marner lead the team with five points apiece, with all of Domi's work coming on helpers. Marner has a goal, and two of his four apples have come on the power play.
Toronto's power play ranks just 27th in the NHL during the early going, posting a 12.5 percent success mark. The penalty kill is 12th in the NHL at 85.0 percent.
Tampa Bay's power play is just 26th in the league at 12.5 percent, while the kill ranks 27th in the NHL at 73.3 percent. That might be the difference here. Back the Maple Leafs on home ice, but don't get carried away.
NHL Moneyline Bets for Lightning at Maple Leafs
- Maple Leafs ML (-140 at Caesars Sportsbook)
As far as the total is concerned, again, the power play has struggled for both sides. However, the penalty kill is also not very good for the Lightning. That's an area it will need to get much better on.
After the Under hit in the first two games for Tampa Bay, the Over has cashed in the past two outings. The Lightning has scored exactly four goals in all four games to date, and it has coughed up eight total goals in the past two outings.
For the Maple Leafs, they allowed a season-high four goals in Saturday's loss to the Blueshirts. Prior to that, Stolarz (and Dennis Hildeby in one start) had been magical, allowing just seven total goals in the first four outings.
The Under is 4-1 in the first five games, and based on the poor power play numbers for both sides and the solid play for both Vassy and Stolarz so far, we'll side with the Under.
NHL Totals Bets for Lightning at Maple Leafs
- Under 6.5 Goals (-102 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Visit our NHL odds page for the most up-to-date betting odds.
NHL Game and Players Props for Lightning at Maple Leafs
- Brayden Point Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-145 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Looking at the props, we're going to back Brayden Point to hit high on his projected shot total. He was limited to just one shot on goal (SOG) in Saturday's loss in Ottawa while posting an assist. However, prior to that, Point had seven SOG in the two previous games, hitting his projections both times.
- Max Domi Over 0.5 Assists (+185 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
For the home side, one prop that really sticks out is Domi's assist total. He leads the team with five apples through five games. For the opportunity to nearly double up, this one is too tough to pass up.
- 1st Period Total - Under 1.5 Total Goals (+110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
We're going to go with a third prop, too, playing the Under for 1st-period goals. The Leafs have cashed Under 1.5 Total Goals in the first period of three out of five games to date, including two of the past three at home. For the Lightning, the Over-Under have split in the first period in the first four outings.
Lightning at Maple Leafs NHL Best Bets Recap
- Maple Leafs ML (-140 Caesars Sportsbook)
- Under 6.5 Goals (-102 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Brayden Point Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-145 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Max Domi Over 0.5 Assists (+185 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
- 1st Period - Under 1.5 Total Goals (+110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
