Hutch's Hockey: Get Your Money's Worth

I'll be direct to start this week's discussion: I like the NHL's salary cap. I like how it creates parity. There are flaws in the system -- I'm not a fan of the differences between regular and long-term injured reserve. If I had my druthers, the players on the 23-man roster would be the ones that count against the cap, and the ones that aren't would not, aside from the penalties associated with bonus overages and buyouts. Overall though, the NHL has a pretty good system. Teams are stuck with their mistakes in one way or another, and it makes the league interesting. 

I mention this because baseball's World Series is something the NHL's cap system pretty much completely eliminates. The Yankees and Dodgers -- teams in massive media markets with owners that have essentially bottomless pockets -- are competing for the title. Obviously, there are factors in play here that allowed them to do that. Baseball's only deterrent to spending is a luxury tax, but that's seen as the price of winning. Both teams have had historical and recent success, leading to passionate fans willing to spend their hard-earned money on those teams. In fairness to the sport, it's odd these two teams haven't met on the biggest stage more often. 

Still, something feels wrong about it. Full disclosure: I don't like either team a bit. Baseball's spending wars leave little room for a small-market team to make a Cinderella run, though the Guardians gave it a good effort as a team with payroll in the bottom-10 of the league compared to the other final four clubs all ranking in the top five. This is where hockey is different in one of the best ways. The cap forces tough decisions, distributing talent throughout the league by attrition. Superteams aren't formed, they're created organically from all players lifting each other up. Success is fleeting -- one year's surprise can become the next year's disappointment. Some teams turn dynastic, but most have to deal with the ebb and flow, the chemistry of ever-changing rosters, the chase of keeping up with rivals. 

In the end, there is one similarity: teams that spend as much as they can tend to have more success. It's very hard to win in the NHL with a budget roster -- you need to spend to the ceiling (and sometimes over it) to go on a deep run. In MLB, the team's owner sets the spending limit, and if your favorite team doesn't want to spend, you run out a roster of retreads and rookies that can be sold off for futures every year. If you win, that's no time to question the process. Trophies and rings are worth every penny, and success tends to breed more success in the long run. 

In fantasy, you also have to find ways to get your money's worth. There's the acquisition cost in drafts, assigning value to players and trying to build the best roster. Salary cap leagues take it a step further, and there's free-agent acquisition budget (FAAB) in some formats to make in-season moves more of a competition. Fantasy takes some of the human element away -- the players don't care if their performance frustrates you -- and makes managing a team more of a pure business decision. In the end, the goal is the same: win. 

We're far enough into the season now where trends can emerge, and a player's recent performance can start to be parsed out of the overall numbers. Your interest in a player will depend on how you play fantasy. Sometimes, you want to pick up a hot hand for a trouble spot on your roster, but other times, it's best to find a player who has been consistent to make him a long-term option.

Nino Niederreiter is a player who typically falls into the first category. It's not uncommon for him to be streaky, and right now, he's on a heater with four goals and two assists over his last four games. The Jets' 8-0-0 start has made a lot of their players interesting. Niederreiter has eight points this season, but he won't sustain that level, so I see him as a short-term addition for points, shots on goal and hits until his play or the team overall cools off. 

His teammate, Cole Perfetti, has a bit more long-term upside. Admittedly, I'm a little late to the party on the 22-year-old winger, who is seeing second-line usage for the Jets. Perfetti's slow start discouraged me, but he has since earned nine points over the last five games. He's playing on the second power-play unit but could be a candidate to move up to the first unit later in the season. All Jets skaters are likely to help in plus-minus, but Perfetti stands out there with a plus-7 rating. He's young enough to still get some sheltered minutes, which means more offensive zone starts. I think his offense will dip, but not so much to tank his fantasy stock. 

Very rarely do I build my team with interest in one-category players. Most of the time, Kiefer Sherwood would be just that -- he's a hit machine, having racked up 50 of them in just seven contests so far. However, that's come with five points over his last four games, and that's offense that will play anywhere. He also has 16 shots on net this year. If he can keep pumping two or more shots on goal per game, his offense should be solid, and the hits become a bonus. He doesn't have a track record of success at age 29, so keep an eye out for the cold spell that's likely to follow his recent heater. 

Most of the same warnings apply to Jacob Middleton, who is enjoying one of the best stretches of his career to begin 2024-25. He has two goals, four assists, 26 blocked shots, 13 hits and a plus-6 rating over eight contests. Middleton has topped 100 hits and 100 blocked shots in each of the last three years, and he did it with 25 points over 80 appearances in 2023-24. The Wild have played very well with a 5-1-2 start to the year, and they've done most of that with Jared Spurgeon sidelined. Middleton has limited offensive upside, but that's the only thing that's ever held him back from fantasy relevance, as he's a steady stream of hits, blocks and PIM in a top-four shutdown role.

Much of the focus in Vegas has been on the top line. That's left Pavel Dorofeyev to fly under the radar, but that's likely to change after he celebrated his 24th birthday with a three-point, nine-shot effort Saturday. He has four goals, three assists, 25 shots and a plus-3 rating over nine contests this season. The only fair criticism for Dorofeyev over the previous two seasons was a lack of playing time -- he was often the last forward in and first one out of the lineup depending on the Golden Knights' injury situation. That's not a concern anymore, as Dorofeyev would need waivers to be sent down. He's been good for a point roughly every two games across the previous two years, but this looks like a breakout campaign for the winger. 

I'm not a full believer in Alex Laferriere, but his production is worth mentioning. The burgeoning power winger has yet to go more than one game without a point, racking up four goals, three assists, 21 shots on net, 19 hits and a plus-7 rating through nine contests. He was fine last year, earning 23 points over 81 regular-season games as a rookie stuck in a bottom-six role, but he's been trusted with more ice time (15:34 per game) and power-play usage (3:22 per game) in 2024-25. Your patience with the Kings' offense may vary, but Laferriere should at least be a player to keep an eye on if you're not ready to scoop him up yet. 

I'm more willing to take the jump on Brandt Clarke. He's in a tricky position on the blue line, as both Clarke and Jordan Spence are competing for first-unit power-play time while Drew Doughty (ankle) is on the mend. I'm still on team Clarke, but he's not guaranteed to stick on the first unit. He has found early success on offense with seven points through nine games, and he's added 18 blocked shots, 14 shots on net and 12 PIM, though those penalties could be a problem in the long run. Spence has found less success (four points in eight games) with similar non-scoring production, so both could be useful in deeper fantasy formats. 

For those looking for playmaking, Anthony Cirelli might be your man right now. He has six assists over his last three games, and he's up to one goal and 10 points through eight contests overall. The 27-year-old center is a known quantity for fantasy purposes -- he's defensively responsible and can supplement a team, but rarely has he carried the load on offense as he is now. He hasn't been a lock for the first power-play unit this season, but he is seeing some time there. Cirelli has topped out 45 points in a season, so he's still got a lot to prove. He won't add a lot of shots on net, but he can help you get some blocked shots from a forward position and should also carry a strong plus-minus rating. 

I admittedly don't know a lot about Will Cuylle's game. He had a fine rookie year in 2023-24, earning 21 points, 249 hits, 119 shots on net and 56 PIM over 81 regular-season outings. This year, he's off to an even better start with seven points, 36 hits and a plus-10 rating across eight games. The Rangers' top six is pretty much set in stone, but Cuylle has worked with Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko to form a strong third line. Obviously, if you need hits, the 22-year-old Cuylle is an excellent choice with plenty of scoring upside given his youth. He was a second-round pick in 2020, so there's a bit of a pedigree here, especially with a shot that scouts touted prior to that draft. The one point of caution is his lack of a power-play role so far this season. 

I am still wary of the Red Wings' goaltending, but the situation is a little more palatable after the team waived Ville Husso and sent him down to AHL Grand Rapids. Cam Talbot looked like the goalie to roster early on, but Alex Lyon has started four of the last seven games and added one relief appearance. He looked superb in a shutout win over the Islanders, a game in which the Red Wings were brutally weak offensively. Lyon has gone 2-2-0 with a 2.05 GAA and a .940 save percentage through five games, and I'm not sold on him running with the starting job, but he's fine as a No. 3 or 4 fantasy netminder. 

I've been hesitant to recommend Justus Annunen so far. It has nothing to do with having confidence in Alexandar Georgiev -- that's all gone at this point. Still, there's an economic factor in play. Teams don't like to have a lot of money sitting on the bench. Annunen has been the Avalanche's saving grace between the pipes, but the slightest hint of a struggle for him or success for Georgiev could flip things around again. Annunen's numbers are decent even after a four-goal outing Sunday versus the Senators (2.48 GAA, .905 save percentage), and if this ultimately becomes a timeshare crease, that's good enough to roster him in fantasy. 

Like the goaltending situation in Colorado illustrates, it's tough to get fair value for performance. By the nature of contracts, general managers pay players for what they've done or what they might do, but that doesn't always line up with what they're doing. Georgiev makes four times the salary Annunen does. The Avalanche are also paying just over $4 million for goaltending this year -- sometimes, taking the cheap route doesn't work, but the cap creates that necessity for teams that go all in on skaters. 

In fantasy, you often get what you pay for as well. If you're playing with FAAB, sometimes a player's hot streak and your own team's need will force you into paying more than what they're usually worth. You can still find value picks anywhere -- late-round draft picks and regular free-agent moves apply here. As always, the draft is just the starting point, and it's everything you do after that event that determines how you stack up in your league. With it being late October, it's a good time to starting making moves in earnest. Cut your losses on sleepers that haven't panned out and try to get in early on players poised for breakouts. For early-round players that have struggled, this is a good time to look for another manager that has a bit of an albatross on their roster. You won't get full value back, but it's not too late to convince a rival that a player is better than they're playing right now. 

On baseball, the best thing about it is that it's almost done for the year. Then there will be more time to focus on hockey. Make some moves this week and check back next Monday for more.