2025-26 Fantasy Hockey Lessons: Goalie Risk, Elite Defensemen, Up-and-Coming Prospects

The first round of the NHL playoffs is in full swing. Six new teams -- Anaheim, Boston, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Utah -- joined the fun after missing out last season. That's the second-highest total in NHL history. 

Buffalo's story is epic. It was in last place in the Eastern Conference on Dec. 13. It fired its general manager two days later and went 36-9-5 (.770) the rest of the way to finish first in the Atlantic division. The berth ended its NHL record 14-season playoff drought.

Winnipeg's woes were epic, too. It finished 33 points below its President's Trophy finish last season (116 points) to become just the fifth team in history to miss the playoffs the next season. And Toronto's 29-point epic drop plummeted them from second in the East to fifth-worst in the NHL. 

So, there's no better time to reflect on the regular season than in the midst of the biggest playoff shakeup in years. Here are five lessons learned from this season that you can apply to next year. 

No. 1 Fantasy Hockey Goalie Strategy for 2025 26 Drafts

What defines a "good goaltender" was the single-biggest fantasy disruptor in 2025-26. 

Goalies have never been better. They're more technically and athletically superior than ever before, and they benefit from sophisticated, data-driven systems that limit high-danger chances. 

This season, the league-wide average save percentage (SV%) hit a 30-year low (.896). That's the lowest it's been since 1995-96. SV% has dropped 19 points in the last decade and seven points in the last two seasons alone. 

The average GAA this season was 2.88. That's not as high as 2022-23 (2.97), but it's well above the average of a decade ago. And close to the 2.93 of two decades ago, when post-lockout rule changes spiked scoring by 17.7 percent (5.14 goals-per-game in 2003-04 to 6.05 in 2005-06). 

The structural forces driving the save percentage decline -- things like analytics-driven shot selection, puck tracking and video methodologies, and 3-on-3 overtimes with consistent, high-danger shots -- are not reversing. Serviceable goalies are a lot closer to the very best. And the ones in favorable systems are even better. 

Case in point? Colorado's elite defensive structure produced an unlikely goalie season that was among the NHL's best. Career backup Scott Wedgewood went 31-6-6 with a 2.02 GAA and .921 SV% (521.20 Yahoo! fantasy points). Washington's Logan Thompson finished with the most Yahoo! fantasy points (623.80), ahead of Tampa Bay's Andrei Vasilevskiy (619.60). Thompson's finish was, in part, built on shot volume, not exceptional performance.

So was Karel Vejmelka's, who was the fifth-best goalie (567.20 ) because he faced the second-most shots overall. He was ranked 10th on the preseason list. Jet Greaves (551.60) was the sixth-best netminder (86th overall), seriously outperforming his preseason rank of 193. 

Even Vasilevskiy wildly underformed his pre-season rank (16), finishing 49th overall. That's the difference between rounds two and five in a 12-team league. Other big drops? Early rounders Jake Oettinger (25 to 102) and Connor Hellebuyck (62 to 148).  

BOTTOM LINE? Drafting elite goalies in the first three rounds is a massive risk. Maybe even in the top five. The shrinkage between elite and serviceable means chasing shot volume can be more valuable, so wait until rounds five to seven. Choose one strong performer and stream the rest. In H2H, wait until round six or so before jumping in, and then stream. 

No. 2: Why Elite Defensemen Matter in Fantasy Hockey Draft Rankings

The pool of elite 75-80 point, multi-category defenders is better than it's been since the 1980s and 1990s when Paul Coffey, Ray Bourque, Brian Leetch, Phil Housley and even Al MacInnis and Larry Murphy ran amok. 

Since 2022, a defenseman has delivered 90+ points in five straight years. No one had done it since 1994 (Bourque). Cale Makar is the first defender to put up at least 90 points in consecutive seasons since Coffey did it. 

This year, five guys -- Makar, Evan Bouchard, Zach Werenski, Lane Hutson and Moritz Seider -- finished in Yahoo!'s top-25 overall. Just three -- Makar, Werenski and Quinn Hughes -- were ranked there in the preseason, and only five were ranked in the top-30 (Bouchard and Miro Heiskanen). Six finished top-30 (add Jakob Chychrun); Darren Raddysh was just outside at 31st. Makar, Bouchard, Werenski, Hutson and Hughes are all legitimate first-round considerations.

Then there are the emerging elite. Matthew Schaefer finished 38th overall (654.80) in a generational season. Heiskanen, Rasmus Dahlin and Jackson LaCombe were right behind. Injuries held back Jake Sanderson, Luke Hughes and Adam Fox. Zayne Parekh, Zeev Buium and Artyom Levshunov are on the precipice.

These defenders provide multi-category value (points, PPP, shots, plus/minus, and, for some, hits and blocks) that mid-tier forwards rarely match. And Raddysh's explosion illustrates a key fantasy consideration -- ice time (TOI) and power-play deployment are primary drivers for offensive success.

Raddysh's TOI jumped from 17:18 in 2024-25 to 22:42 this year, and his power-play time more than doubled (1:47 to 3:45) due to Victor Hedman's injuries. Schaefer's 24:41 TOI (3:19 PP TOI) helped deliver 111 blocks and 18 PPP. And he became the youngest defenseman in NHL history (18 years, 195 days) to record 50 points (59 total). 

BOTTOM LINE? Grab a top-five defender no later than early in round three, both in roto and H2H. And overpay in keepers and dynasties. Power-play changes mean using the wire aggressively. That's where Raddysh lived. But don't overpay for him in the draft. He's a UFA, and he'd be wise to stay in Tampa. Team context mattered for Raddysh. He's not the same guy in another jersey. 

No. 3 How Team Context Impacts Fantasy Hockey Breakout Players

Raddysh's explosion this season is the clearest example -- he had opportunity within a structure (fourth in GF, third-best in GA) that optimized his play and maximized his production, including on the power play (26 PPP). 

Wedgewood's production showed how historic Colorado's offensive dominance was this season. The team generated offense and suppressed goals against at league-leading rates (3.63 GF; 203 GA). That made Sam Malinski the 25th best defender overall (506.60). His preseason rank was 357.

Team context mattered with other high-scoring teams, too. Pittsburgh finished third in GF (290), which helped Anthony Mantha finish 89th overall (544.80). His preseason rank was 354. He got lucky, though -- the Pens allowed the ninth-most goals this season. 

BOTTOM LINE? Goal production combined with great suppression is a golden ticket to elevate fantasy potential, especially with mid-round picks. But beware projecting historic production -- Colorado can't possibly repeat this. 

No. 4 Elite NHL Prospects to Target in Keeper and Dynasty Leagues

The arrival of elite young talent is a trend that's not slowing down. This season, Schaefer (18), Macklin Celebrini (19), Connor Bedard (20) and Leo Carlsson (21) produced at age-adjusted paces that sat among current and future Hall of Famers. Celebrini would have been a Hart nominee if the Sharks had made the postseason. Schaefer broke Bobby Orr's records at 18. 

The Schaefer-Orr comparisons are especially notable. Orr set his record in 1966-67 when the pace was slower, tactically simpler and physically less demanding. I'm not saying Schaefer will replace Orr on Mt. Rushmore. But it does speak to the massive systemic improvements that prepare elite teenagers for today's NHL.

BOTTOM LINE? This young player wave demands aggressive investment in elite talent in keeper and dynasty formats. Celebrini, Bedard, Schaefer, and Beckett Sennecke established themselves as strong NHL contributors from opening night. Most young players will still take four to five seasons to find their NHL feet. But not the truly elite.  

No. 5 Loser Points and Head-to-Head Fantasy Hockey Strategy

Loser points compressed the standings this season in a completely artificial way. On New Year's Eve, all 32 teams were within 10 points of the playoffs. There were 25 franchises within five points of a playoff berth as late as April 3. Seven of the 16 playoff spots were still unclaimed on April 11. 

WHY DOES THIS MATTER IN FANTASY? Standings parity was mirrored in H2H matchups, where smart managers used baseball strategies like streaming goalies, punting categories like SV%, and dominating seven categories instead of nine to win. Standings parity is here to stay. So is being innovative to win.