This article is part of our DFS NHL Breakdown series.
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 118.0 (TOR) to a worst of 87.4 (ANH), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 94.1 (BOS) to a worst of 111.4 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Slate Preview
Tuesday night drops a large 10-game slate highlighted by an Atlantic Division showdown between Toronto and Boston. Vegas and Toronto are playing the second night of a back-to-back, while Pittsburgh and Detroit are playing the front end. Below is a chart of some of the highlighted tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings:
| FANDUEL | DRAFTKINGS |
|---|---|
| $33 Goal (427 entries) | $33 Line Change (883 entries) |
| $12 Slapshot (196 entries) | $20 Crosscheck (294 entries) |
| $7 Crossbar (504 entries) | $12 Knuckle Puck (784 entries, Single Entry) |
| $5 Save (476 entries, Single Entry) | $5 One-Timer (1,426 entries, Single Entry) |
| $4.44 Breakaway (10,725 Entries) | $3 Enforcer (1,585 entries) |
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentages. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 118.0 (TOR) to a worst of 87.4 (ANH), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 94.1 (BOS) to a worst of 111.4 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Slate Preview
Tuesday night drops a large 10-game slate highlighted by an Atlantic Division showdown between Toronto and Boston. Vegas and Toronto are playing the second night of a back-to-back, while Pittsburgh and Detroit are playing the front end. Below is a chart of some of the highlighted tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings:
| FANDUEL | DRAFTKINGS |
|---|---|
| $33 Goal (427 entries) | $33 Line Change (883 entries) |
| $12 Slapshot (196 entries) | $20 Crosscheck (294 entries) |
| $7 Crossbar (504 entries) | $12 Knuckle Puck (784 entries, Single Entry) |
| $5 Save (476 entries, Single Entry) | $5 One-Timer (1,426 entries, Single Entry) |
| $4.44 Breakaway (10,725 Entries) | $3 Enforcer (1,585 entries) |
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentages. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.
| TEAM | OPP | STARTING GOALIE | OR | DR | SOG | S% | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | at BOS | (C) Michael Hutchinson | 118.0 | 101.7 | 33.6 | 9.9 | 89.6 |
| Boston | vs TOR | (C) Tuukka Rask | 103.1 | 94.1 | 35.3 | 10.1 | 91.3 |
| San Jose | at BUF | (C) Martin Jones | 113.3 | 98.1 | 32.6 | 9.6 | 89.0 |
| Buffalo | vs. SJ | (C) Carter Hutton | 99.5 | 98.0 | 34.2 | 9.6 | 90.4 |
| Pittsburgh | at FLA | (C) Matt Murray | 100.8 | 100.7 | 33.6 | 10.8 | 91.8 |
| Florida | vs. PIT | (C) Sergei Bobrovsky | 98.2 | 100.7 | 34.8 | 10.3 | 90.3 |
| Arizona | at NYR | (C) Darcy Kuemper | 91.8 | 101.7 | 32.9 | 9.6 | 92.3 |
| NY Rangers | vs. ARI | (C) Alexandar Georgiev | 93.7 | 108.0 | 28.5 | 11.2 | 91.0 |
| Vancouver | at DET | (P) Jacob Markstrom | 99.2 | 101.4 | 32.5 | 10.1 | 91.0 |
| Detroit | vs. VAN | (C) Jimmy Howard | 89.0 | 105.9 | 30.2 | 10.1 | 90.5 |
| Anaheim | at NSH | (P) John Gibson | 87.4 | 106.4 | 26.9 | 8.6 | 91.4 |
| Nashville | vs. ANH | (C) Pekka Rinne | 100.5 | 97.2 | 34.2 | 10.4 | 91.3 |
| Edmonton | at MIN | (C) Mike Smith | 93.4 | 104.9 | 28.4 | 10.4 | 89.8 |
| Minnesota | vs. EDM | (C) Devan Dubnyk | 96.7 | 98.4 | 36.0 | 9.1 | 90.7 |
| Los Angeles | at WPG | (C) Jonathan Quick | 95.2 | 106.0 | 31.8 | 8.3 | 88.3 |
| Winnipeg | vs. LA | (C) Connor Hellebuyck | 96.5 | 105.2 | 32.1 | 10.8 | 90.9 |
| Vegas | at CHI | (C) Marc-Andre Fleury | 111.1 | 97.7 | 34.2 | 10.4 | 90.9 |
| Chicago | vs. VGK | (C) Robin Lehner | 103.7 | 105.2 | 34.3 | 10.4 | 91.9 |
| Washington | at CGY | (C) Braden Holtby | 101.6 | 102.8 | 30.2 | 10.9 | 90.6 |
| Calgary | vs. WSH | (C) Cam Talbot | 106.3 | 97.6 | 32.4 | 10.2 | 89.5 |
All players below have a number inside parenthesis next to their names, which denotes the power play unit they are on (1) or (2). If they are not on a power play they will be noted with a (0), and the rare occasion of a (3) means that they are on both power play units.
Line Stacks
BOS1 vs TOR: David Pastrnak (1) ($8,700 FD, $8,000 DK), Brad Marchand (1) ($8,300 FD, $7,100 DK), Patrice Bergeron (1) ($7,500 FD, $7,000 DK) - Toronto is likely to start Michael Hutchinson in goal Tuesday, and this provides BOS1 a huge opportunity against a sub-par defense (101.7 DR) and poor goalie (3.27 GAA, .887 SV%). Pastrnak is off to a monster start this year with nine goals and six assists in eight games, while Marchand has tallied four goals and eight assists. When, Bergeron, the lowest-scoring member of the line has put up a point per game, you know it's a powerful unit. Although they are expensive, BOS1 is the top line of the night in my rankings by a wide margin.
WPG1 vs. LA: Mark Scheifele (1) ($7,700 FD, $7,100 DK), Patrik Laine (1) ($7,700 FD, $7,000 DK), Blake Wheeler (1) ($7,100 FD, $5,600 DK) - WPG1 provides a nice value on DraftKings, but is in play on FanDuel as well at home against the Kings (106.0 DR). Scheifele and Laine are tied for the team lead with 12 points through 10 games, while Wheeler has chipped in three goals and three assists.
CHI1 vs. VGK: Jonathan Toews (1) ($6,800 FD, $4,900 DK), Alex DeBrincat (1) ($6,300 FD, $5,300 DK), Andrew Shaw (2) ($4,200 FD, $4,500 DK)
CHI2 vs. VGK: Patrick Kane (1) ($8,200 FD, $7,400 DK), Dylan Strome (1) ($4,900 FD, $4,400 DK), Kirby Dach (0) ($3,000 FD, $3,000 DK) - Even though Marc-Andre Fleury is likely to start, Vegas will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a 6-2 beatdown in Philadelphia. With the tired Vegas defense on the ice, Toews, DeBrincat and Shaw have combined for five goals and three assists in their first six games of the season. While that is not a world-beating stat line, I think this line has a good shot at multiple points Tuesday with the addition of Shaw as the third linemate following stints from Alexander Nylander and Drake Caggiula. Kane, Strome and 18-year old rookie Dach may be the more intriguing option in this game. Dach has an NHL comparison of Ryan Getzlaf and was the third overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, so the skill set is likely there and playing alongside Patrick Kane is a lot better than most rookies get to experience in their first stint with the big club.
DET1 vs. VAN: Dylan Larkin (1) ($7,000 FD, $6,000 DK), Anthony Mantha (1) ($6,400 FD, $6,100 DK), Tyler Bertuzzi (1) ($5,200 FD, $5,000 DK) - DET1 began the year on fire but cooled off during a tough stretch when they played four games in Canada in eight nights. They return home to face a Vancouver team (105.9 DR) that beat the Red Wings 5-1 last Tuesday, but Larkin recorded that lone goal while Mantha and Bertuzzi each recorded an assist. Moving the venue to Detroit, I feel this is a great spot for DET1 to record a multiple point night.
ARI2 at NYR: Nick Schmaltz (2) ($5,000 FD, $5,100 DK), Christian Dvorak (1) ($3,700 FD, $4,600 DK), Conor Garland (2) ($3,400 FD, $4,500 DK) - One of my rules of thumb is top lines at home and second lines on the road, so ARI2 fits my rule on the road at the Rangers (101.4 DR). Schmaltz and Garland both play on the second power play while Dvorak has a spot on the top power play; for the value there are few better options than this line that has combined for 10 goals and seven assists in seven games.
Other Options: WPG2 vs LA, BUF1 vs SJ, CHI2 vs VGK, EDM1 at MIN, FLA1 vs PIT, PIT1 at FLA, VGK2 at CHI
Solo Forward Options
Jack Eichel (1) BUF1 vs SJ ($8,200 FD, $7,200 DK) - Although he has played a little better this year, Martin Jones (3.39 GAA, .899 SV%) is still one of my favorite goalies to target. Eichel has notched four goals and six assists in 10 games this year, and with this home matchup, Eichel is my highest projected non-Boston player Tuesday.
Jake DeBrusk (1) BOS2 vs TOR ($4,800 FD, $4,200 DK) - DeBrusk gets time on the top power play, has put up 23 shots in eight games this season and scored a goal in his last game against these same Maple Leafs on Saturday.
Kyle Turris (2) NSH2 vs ANH ($4,300 FD, $3,400 DK) - If Filip Forsberg remains out, Turris is again one of the best value plays of the night. With points in three straight games (two goals and two assists), Turris is taking a spot alongside Matt Duchene, one of the league's elite distributors against the poor defense of Anaheim (106.4 DR).
Dominik Kubalik (2) CHI3 vs VGK ($3,800 FD, $4,000 DK) - I used Kubalik on Friday for a three-shot game, but I did not play Sunday when he broke out with a goal plus an incredible 10 shots on goal. Plug him with some of your other Chicago stacks.
Defensemen
Alexander Edler (1) VAN at DET ($5,600 FD, $6,200 DK) - Edler is not my highest projected defenseman Tuesday, but he is one of the best value options among the top tier against Detroit (105.2 DR).
Rasmus Dahlin (1) BUF vs. SJ ($5,600 FD, $5,500 DK) - Dahlin has been an assist machine with eight in nine games to go along with one goal, while quarterbacking a strong power play unit for the Sabres.
Josh Morrissey (1) WPG vs. LA ($4,600 FD, $4,900 DK) - Morrissey has yet to score this year, but he does have six assists in eight games to go along with 18 shots. His salary makes him a great pairing with the WPG1 stacks at home against the Kings (106.0 DR).
Mathew Dumba (1) MIN vs. EDM ($4,200 FD, $4,700 DK) - Dumba has played at a better than 50-point pace over the past two seasons and has a great paced game against a poor Edmonton defense (104.9 DR).
Sean Walker (0) LA at WPG ($3,600 FD, $4,100 DK) - Walker has continued to put the puck on net with a pair of goals and assists, plus 21 shots and 15 blocks in eight games. A game with Winnipeg should be a jump in pace for the Kings, which will benefit Walker's game style.
Goalies
Tuukka Rask BOS vs TOR ($9,000 FD, $7,900 DK) - After losing Monday night at home against Columbus, Toronto will have to travel to face Boston and the best defensive unit in the NHL (94.1 DR). Rask should benefit from the great defense and up-tempo Maple Leafs offense that should put a good number of shots on net. There is risk involved any time you play a goalie against Toronto, but the upside here is huge, especially in DraftKings where the 35+ save bonus is in play.
Pekka Rinne NSH vs ANH ($8,700 FD, $8,400 DK) - Rinne looks like the top cash-game option on the slate with a home game against the league-worst Anaheim offense (87.4 OR). This game is likely to be very low scoring but Nashville is one of the biggest betting favorites on the board, so Rinne is in a favorable spot.
Connor Hellebuyck WPG vs LA ($7,700 FD, $8,300 DK) - Not sure I've timed the Winnipeg goalie correctly yet this year, but Tuesday night at home against the Kings (95.2 OR) looks to be a great spot for Hellebuyck. The offense has been struggling in front of the Jets goalies, but the Kings defense (106.0 DR) should help with the offensive support.
Alexandar Georgiev NYR vs ARI ($7,500 FD, $8,000 DK) - The price on DraftKings might be a little too high for me but Georgiev is a great value on FanDuel. With two starts this year (2.56 GAA, .928 SV%), his third will come at home against an offensively stunted Arizona team (91.8 OR). The Rangers are allowing the most shots per game in the league (36.8) and were third worst in the league last season (33.8) -- shots mean saves, and in a game against a poor offense, the upside makes Georgiev a great option Tuesday.
Other Options: Sergei Bobrovsky FLA vs PIT ($8,600 FD, $7,500 DK), Robin Lehner CHI vs VGK ($7,600 FD, $7,500 DK)
