This article is part of our DFS NHL Breakdown series.
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 115.1 (TOR) to a worst of 90.9 (ANH), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 92.4 (BOS) to a worst of 110.7 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Slate Preview
Tuesday offers a nice seven-game slate with some good fantasy options. Minnesota is the only team on the end of a back-to-back, while Toronto, Philadelphia and Carolina are all playing the front end of a back-to-back. Below is a chart of some of the highlighted tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings:
| FANDUEL | DRAFTKINGS |
|---|---|
| $50 Top Shelf (102 entries, Single Entry) | $50 Hat Trick King (681 entries) |
| $33 Goal (606 entries) | $33 Line Change (141 entries) |
| $12 Slapshot (147 entries) | $12 Knuckle Puck (784 entries, Single Entry) |
| $7 Crossbar (595 entries) | $10 Hats Off (14,705 entries) |
| $5 Save (952 entries, Single Entry) | $5 One-Timer (1,189 entries, Single Entry) |
| $4.44 Breakaway (17,428 Entries) | $4 Forecheck (5,945 entries) |
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal,
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 115.1 (TOR) to a worst of 90.9 (ANH), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 92.4 (BOS) to a worst of 110.7 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Slate Preview
Tuesday offers a nice seven-game slate with some good fantasy options. Minnesota is the only team on the end of a back-to-back, while Toronto, Philadelphia and Carolina are all playing the front end of a back-to-back. Below is a chart of some of the highlighted tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings:
| FANDUEL | DRAFTKINGS |
|---|---|
| $50 Top Shelf (102 entries, Single Entry) | $50 Hat Trick King (681 entries) |
| $33 Goal (606 entries) | $33 Line Change (141 entries) |
| $12 Slapshot (147 entries) | $12 Knuckle Puck (784 entries, Single Entry) |
| $7 Crossbar (595 entries) | $10 Hats Off (14,705 entries) |
| $5 Save (952 entries, Single Entry) | $5 One-Timer (1,189 entries, Single Entry) |
| $4.44 Breakaway (17,428 Entries) | $4 Forecheck (5,945 entries) |
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentages. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.
| TEAM | OPP | STARTING GOALIE | OR | DR | SOG | S% | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | at TOR | (C) Devan Dubnyk | 96.8 | 97.9 | 33.6 | 8.7 | 90.9 |
| Toronto | vs MIN | (C) Frederik Andersen | 115.1 | 103.6 | 35.1 | 10.0 | 91.2 |
| Tampa Bay | at MON | (C) Andrei Vasilevskiy | 110.6 | 96.7 | 32.5 | 11.4 | 92.2 |
| Montreal | vs. TB | (C) Carey Price | 107.2 | 98.7 | 33.6 | 9.1 | 91.6 |
| Arizona | at WPG | (C) Darcy Kuemper | 96.1 | 100.7 | 32.0 | 9.0 | 92.1 |
| Winnipeg | vs. ARI | (C) Connor Hellebuyck | 95.6 | 105.2 | 30.8 | 10.4 | 91.2 |
| Philadelphia | at CGY | (C) Brian Elliott | 98.0 | 105.7 | 29.7 | 9.7 | 90.0 |
| Calgary | vs. PHI | (C) David Rittich | 112.6 | 93.3 | 35.6 | 10.9 | 90.8 |
| Detroit | at VAN | (C) Jonathan Bernier | 92.9 | 103.8 | 32.1 | 9.9 | 90.2 |
| Vancouver | vs. DET | (C) Thatcher Demko | 98.4 | 102.0 | 33.2 | 9.9 | 91.0 |
| Nashville | at VGK | (P) Pekka Rinne | 102.0 | 96.5 | 33.1 | 10.9 | 91.4 |
| Vegas | vs. NSH | (C) Marc-Andre Fleury | 110.4 | 97.4 | 32.7 | 9.8 | 91.0 |
| Carolina | at LA | (P) Petr Mrazek | 113.2 | 96.4 | 33.0 | 9.3 | 91.1 |
| Los Angeles | vs. CAR | (P) Jack Campbell | 93.7 | 105.4 | 30.3 | 8.3 | 91.0 |
All players below have a number inside parenthesis next to their name, which denotes the power play unit they are on (1) or (2). If they are not on a power play they will be noted with a (0), and the rare occasion of a (3) means that they are on both power play units.
Line Stacks
CGY1 vs. PHI: Johnny Gaudreau (1) ($7,600 FD, $6,900 DK), Sean Monahan (1) ($7,000 FD, $7,000 DK), Elias Lindholm (1) ($5,700 FD, $5,100 DK) - Calgary is in a smash spot against Philadelphia (105.7 DR) using Brian Elliott in net rather than Carter Hart. The Flames are coming home after a tough three-game road trip where they only managed an OT victory to go along with two losses. I think they are going to bring the wood Tuesday with Gaudreau, Monahan, and Lindholm (eight goals, 10 assists combined in six games this season).
TB1 at MON: Nikita Kucherov (1) ($8,700 FD, $7,700 DK), Steven Stamkos (1) ($8,200 FD, $7,800 DK), Brayden Point (1) ($7,600 FD, $7,500 DK) - Tampa Bay laid a big egg Saturday, losing 4-2 at Ottawa, so I expect them to come out strong as they continue with a third straight Canadian road game Tuesday at Montreal. The Canadiens have been playing high-scoring affairs this season, with at least six goals in all five of their games.
VAN1 vs. DET: Brock Boeser (1) ($7,000 FD, $5,200 DK), Elias Pettersson (1) ($6,500 FD, $5,300 DK), J.T. Miller (1) ($5,300 FD, $4,500 DK) - VAN1 is in a great spot at home against a poor defensive Detroit team (105.7 DR). Being at home, VAN1 will be able to avoid the solid defensive unit of the Dylan Larkin line (97.5 DR), while getting plus matchups against the other three Red Wing lines.
MON1 vs. TB: Brendan Gallagher (1) ($7,100 FD, $6,300 DK), Tomas Tatar (2) ($6,600 FD, $4,600 DK), Phillip Danault (1) ($4,900 FD, $4,400 DK) - Tampa Bay has not been firing on all cylinders defensively this season, allowing 17 goals in five games. The Canadiens top line of Gallagher, Tatar and Danault has been strong with six goals and nine assists through five games, and while there are better options Tuesday, MON1 should be a low owned option in a potential shootout game.
CAR3 at LA: Erik Haula (2) ($5,500 FD, $5,800 DK), Ryan Dzingel (2) ($4,800 FD, $4,200 DK), Martin Necas (1) ($3,500 FD, $2,700 DK) - CAR3 has quietly been one of the best offensive lines in hockey, as Haula, Dzingel and Necas have combined for eight goals and six assists in six games. The incredible depth that Carolina has on its roster allows this line to get favorable matchups against lesser defensive units while teams try to slow down the top two Hurricane lines. The Kings have allowed 26 goals in five games, so all Carolina lines are in play Tuesday, but CAR3 offers incredible value.
Other options: TOR1/TOR2 vs MIN, WPG1/WPG2 vs ARI, DET1 at VAN
Solo Forward Options
Auston Matthews (1) TOR1 vs MIN ($8,800 FD, $8,100 DK) - Both the Toronto top lines are in play at home against a tired Minnesota team, but with home line changes I prefer Matthews over John Tavares if you are looking for a single option.
Matthew Tkachuk (1) CGY2 vs PHI ($6,500 FD, $5,700 DK) - As mentioned before, Calgary is in a great spot at home against Philadelphia and their backup goalie. Consider playing Tkachuk (two goals, four assists in six games) in a power play stack with CGY1.
Andrei Svechnikov (2) CAR2 at LA ($5,500 FD, $6,400 DK) - Svechnikov has been a great play-maker in the early going with a goal and seven assists in the first six Carolina games this season, and he draws a favorable matchup against a poor defensive Kings team.
Bo Horvat (1) VAN2 vs DET ($5,500 FD, $4,900 DK) - Horvat has started slowly with only a single assist through four games, but that has depressed his salary a bit; this is still the same player who had 27 goals and 34 assists last year and is in a great spot at home Tuesday against Detroit.
Defensemen
Mark Giordano (1) CGY vs. PHI ($6,500 FD, $6,500 DK) - Giordano occupies the top offensive blue spot on both even strength shifts and on the power play. With 17 shots in six games, he is a good bet to improve on his goal and two assists so far this season.
Alexander Edler (1) VAN vs. DET ($5,600 FD, $5,800 DK) - Edler is a "Jack of all trades," racking up fantasy points across the board with a pair of goals, 10 shots and eight blocks in four games. A great matchup at home against Detroit provides a nice opportunity Tuesday.
Dougie Hamilton (2) CAR at LA ($6,200 FD, $6,700 DK) - Hamilton is only on the second power play unit but do not knock him for that because he leads the team in overall ice time and shots on goal, while being tied for the team lead with eight points.
Josh Morrissey (1) WPG vs. ARI ($4,700 FD, $4,300 DK) - Winnipeg is in a favorable spot and all their skaters are in play, but Morrissey looks like the best value play on the Jets on Tuesday. With four assists and 11 shots in five games, Morrissey offers upside with a nice floor earned from a team high 24:22 ATOI.
Cody Ceci (0) TOR vs MIN ($3,800 FD, $4,000 DK) - Toronto has many options Tuesday, but if you are looking for a solid value play then Ceci provides that. With a goal, two assists, five shots and 14 blocks in six games, Ceci can fill up the box score at a great price.
Goalies
Frederik Andersen TOR vs MIN ($8,600 FD, $8,400 DK) - Andersen is one of my favorite goaltenders in the NHL; although his numbers in the early season do not look good (3.38 GAA, .886 SV%), if you ignore the seven-goal shellacking by Tampa Bay last Thursday, the numbers are among the elite (2.27 GAA, .920 SV%). A home date against Minnesota provides a great spot for Andersen, with the Wild coming off a back-to-back and struggling offensively this season (12 goals in five games).
David Rittich CGY vs PHI ($7,800 FD, $8,100 DK) - A much better play on FanDuel at $7,800 but still an option on DraftKings as well. The Flyers second line has been great this year, but Calgary is a deep defensive team with talent on all four forward lines.
Petr Mrazek CAR at LA ($7,600 FD, $7,900 DK) - Carolina is possibly the deepest team in the NHL, which allows them to play stronger as games progress; as such, they show up favorably in my rankings (113.2 OR and 96.4 DR). The Kings are the near opposite (93.7 OR and 105.4 DR), and while they've played better offensively in the early going, I still feel this is a good spot for Mrazek, especially for the value on FanDuel.
Connor Hellebuyck WPG vs ARI ($7,900 FD, $8,300 DK) - I got burned last time I used a Winnipeg goalie and got burned last time I played a goalie against Arizona -- you have to be able to clear the memory and use guys when the numbers are favorable, as they are Tuesday for Hellebuyck at home against Arizona (96.1 OR). Winnipeg's lack of defensive prowess (105.2 DR) actually will help Hellebuyck accumulate saves.
Other options: Andrei Vasilevskiy TB at MON ($8,800 FD, $7,800 DK), Jack Campbell LA vs CAR ($7,600 FD, $7,300 DK)
