This article is part of our DFS NHL Breakdown series.
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the offense rating (OR) ranges from a best of 116.5 (TOR) to a worst of 89.4 (EDM), and the defense rating (DR) ranges from a best of 92.1 (BOS) to a worst of 110.9 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Slate Preview
Thursday offers a large 11-game slate with many wide-open games. Below is a chart of some of the highlighted tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings:
| FANDUEL | DRAFTKINGS |
|---|---|
| $33 Goal (534 entries) | $40 Shootout (728 entries) |
| $12 Slapshot (196 entries) | $20 Crosscheck (294 entries) |
| $7 Crossbar (504 entries) | $10 Twine (11,764 entries) |
| $5 Save (714 entries, Single Entry) | $5 One-Timer (1,189 entries, Single Entry) |
| $4.44 Breakaway (13,406 Entries) | $4 Forecheck (5,945 entries) |
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentage. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.
| TEAM | OPP | STARTING GOALIE | OR | DR | SOG | S% | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | at TOR | (C) |
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the offense rating (OR) ranges from a best of 116.5 (TOR) to a worst of 89.4 (EDM), and the defense rating (DR) ranges from a best of 92.1 (BOS) to a worst of 110.9 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Slate Preview
Thursday offers a large 11-game slate with many wide-open games. Below is a chart of some of the highlighted tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings:
| FANDUEL | DRAFTKINGS |
|---|---|
| $33 Goal (534 entries) | $40 Shootout (728 entries) |
| $12 Slapshot (196 entries) | $20 Crosscheck (294 entries) |
| $7 Crossbar (504 entries) | $10 Twine (11,764 entries) |
| $5 Save (714 entries, Single Entry) | $5 One-Timer (1,189 entries, Single Entry) |
| $4.44 Breakaway (13,406 Entries) | $4 Forecheck (5,945 entries) |
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentage. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.
| TEAM | OPP | STARTING GOALIE | OR | DR | SOG | S% | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | at TOR | (C) Andrei Vasilevskiy | 110.3 | 96.9 | 34.5 | 11.4 | 92.2 |
| Toronto | vs TB | (C) Frederik Andersen | 116.5 | 102.8 | 35.5 | 10.2 | 91.1 |
| Detroit | at MON | (C) Jonathan Bernier | 91.5 | 104.6 | 30.8 | 10.2 | 90.4 |
| Montreal | vs. DET | (C) Carey Price | 106.7 | 99.0 | 34.9 | 8.9 | 91.6 |
| Edmonton | at NJ | (P) Mike Smith | 89.4 | 106.6 | 30.1 | 9.2 | 89.9 |
| New Jersey | vs. EDM | (P) MacKenzie Blackwood | 99.2 | 102.0 | 35.8 | 9.4 | 90.4 |
| Anaheim | at PIT | (P) John Gibson | 91.3 | 105.2 | 28.7 | 8.2 | 91.4 |
| Pittsburgh | vs. ANH | (C) Matt Murray | 100.4 | 101.5 | 34.5 | 9.7 | 91.9 |
| St. Louis | at OTT | (C) Jake Allen | 102.6 | 94.8 | 36.1 | 9.1 | 90.4 |
| Ottawa | vs. STL | (C) Anders Nilsson | 93.1 | 110.9 | 28.6 | 9.2 | 90.1 |
| Washington | at NSH | (P) Braden Holtby | 106.1 | 102.8 | 30.6 | 11.1 | 90.7 |
| Nashville | vs. WSH | (P) Pekka Rinne | 103.1 | 96.4 | 36.2 | 10.8 | 91.4 |
| Minnesota | at WPG | (C) Devan Dubnyk | 99.2 | 97.8 | 34.9 | 9.0 | 90.7 |
| Winnipeg | vs. MIN | (C) Connor Hellebuyck | 93.1 | 105.2 | 30.0 | 10.4 | 91.2 |
| San Jose | at CHI | (C) Aaron Dell | 111.5 | 99.8 | 34.1 | 9.6 | 88.4 |
| Chicago | vs. SJ | (C) Corey Crawford | 104.1 | 107.6 | 33.5 | 10.7 | 90.3 |
| Calgary | at DAL | (C) David Rittich | 112.3 | 94.8 | 31.8 | 10.8 | 90.6 |
| Dallas | vs. CGY | (C) Ben Bishop | 98.3 | 97.3 | 29.7 | 9.4 | 92.9 |
| Boston | at COL | (C) Jaroslav Halak | 107.4 | 92.1 | 33.8 | 10.8 | 91.7 |
| Colorado | vs. BOS | (P) Philipp Grubauer | 106.9 | 99.2 | 33.5 | 9.6 | 91.4 |
| Vegas | at ARI | (C) Malcolm Subban | 112.4 | 96.8 | 34.4 | 9.9 | 90.3 |
| Arizona | vs. VGK | (C) Darcy Kuemper | 97.2 | 100.6 | 32.0 | 9.3 | 92.0 |
Line Stacks
TB1 at TOR: Nikita Kucherov (1) ($8,800 FD, $7,800 DK), Steven Stamkos (1) ($8,200 FD, $7,000 DK), Brayden Point (1) ($7,700 FD, $6,900 DK) - Point returns tonight to reunite the three all-star line for Tampa Bay; there may be some rust to shake off, but this line provided an 81.4 CF% last season when together. Frederik Andersen is one of the better-skilled goalies in the NHL, but the defense in front of him (102.8 DR) does not look like one that is going to slow down this monster TB1 line.
BOS1 at COL: Brad Marchand (1) ($8,300 FD, $6,200 DK), David Pastrnak (1) ($7,900 FD, $6,400 DK), Patrice Bergeron (1) ($7,600 FD, $6,400 DK) - BOS1 has started the season in good form with four goals and five assists through the first three games. Colorado offers a middle-of-the-road defense (99.2 DR), but COL1 provides the Avalanche's best defensive unit (91.8 DR), which means I expect to see a lot of BOS1 vs. COL1, with both teams likely to provide some firepower in a game that should not see much scoring outside these elite units.
CHI1 vs. SJ: Patrick Kane (1) ($8,400 FD, $7,700 DK), Jonathan Toews (1) ($7,400 FD, $5,800 DK), Alexander Nylander (2) ($3,800 FD, $5,000 DK) - The Blackhawks should be well rested after only playing a single game this season in Europe in the opening week, and they have a home date against a San Jose team that is reeling defensively (17 goals allowed in first four games). Kane is off to a big start with a goal and pair of assists in that opening game, while Nylander potted a goal of his own. Toews has yet to record a point, but he will be a good bet to be in the mix Thursday.
EDM1 at NJ: Connor McDavid (1) ($9,200 FD, $8,100 DK), Leon Draisaitl (1) ($8,400 FD, $7,900 DK), Zack Kassian (2) ($4,500 FD, $4,500 DK) - Okay, I give, I am not going to fade Edmonton any further in spite of what my rankings say (league low 89.4 OR). McDavid is the best offensive player in the league and Draisatl is a great player who helps create a deadly duo for EDM1. New Jersey is coming of a back-to-back where they were shutout in a 4-0 loss in Philadelphia, and with MacKenzie Blackwood (nine goals on 45 shots against) starting for the Devils, this looks to be a great spot for EDM1.
SJ1 at CHI: Logan Couture (1) ($7,300 FD, $6,500 DK), Timo Meier (2) ($5,700 FD, $6,100 DK), Patrick Marleau (2) ($3,900 FD, $4,500 DK) - This could be a tournament-winning option Thursday but there is a large downside with the slow start from the Sharks (five goals in four winless games). Couture and Meier were two of the star players from a team that was in the western conference final last year, and they are going to be joined again by long-time San Jose star Patrick Marleau, who was just signed to a new one-year deal.
OTT1 vs. STL: Brady Tkachuk (1) ($6,000 FD, $5,500 DK), Colin White (1) ($4,800 FD, $3,800 DK), Tyler Ennis (1) ($3,200 FD, $3,200 DK) - OTT1 looks like a sneaky option, with Jake Allen starting in goal for St. Louis plus the ability of Ottawa to gain some more favorable line matchups at home. Tkachuk is a budding star who has a pair of goals in the Senators' first two games, while White is a solid value as a distributor from center. Ennis can be cut from this line, but he does provide first power play time along with both Tkachuk and White.
Other options: COL1 vs BOS, TOR1/2 vs TB, STL1 at OTT, DET1 at MON, WPG1 vs MIN
Solo Forward Options
Auston Matthews (1) TOR1 vs TB ($8,900 FD, $8,000 DK) - All of Toronto is in play Thursday, but if I'm going with one guy it's gonna be Matthews at home.
Alex DeBrincat (1) CHI2 vs SJ ($6,500 FD, $6,400 DK) - DeBrincat is the best young player on the Blackhawks and is in a great spot against a poor New Jersey defense (102.0 DR)
James Neal (1) EDM2 at NJ ($5,200 FD, $5,500 DK) - This obviously feels like chasing a monster game, but as mentioned above, Edmonton is in a smash spot, so Neal is in play, especially with top power play duties.
Jared McCann (2) PIT2 vs ANH ($4,200 FD, $4,900 DK) - McCann did not do much Tuesday, but he will continue to receive extra ice time while Evgeni Malkin is out of the lineup. A good spot at home against Anaheim (105.2 DR) should provide some scoring chances.
Calle Jarnkrok (0) NSH1 vs WSH ($3,200 FD, $2,800 DK) - No power play, but top even strength time for Jarnkrok should be a nice punt spot.
Defensemen
Morgan Rielly (1) TOR vs TB ($6,500 FD, $6,600 DK) - Reilly has been a top defensive option on many slates, this one is no different in a potential high scoring affair at home against Tampa Bay.
Brent Burns (2) SJ at CHI ($7,400 FD, $7,000 DK) / Erik Karlsson (1) SJ at CHI ($6,800 FD, $5,700 DK) - Chicago is one of the worst defenses in my ratings (107.6 DR) and Burns/Karlsson are two of the better fantasy scorers at defense. Karlsson looks like a great value on DraftKings.
Erik Gustafsson (1) CHI vs. SJ ($5,500 FD, $4,700 DK) - Gustafsson should be a good complement at defense to pair with CHI1 at home against San Jose.
Oscar Klefbom (1) EDM at NJ ($5,200 FD, $6,500 DK) - Klefbom is off to a great start with four assists in his first three games, look for more of the same tonight against a tired and struggling New Jersey defense.
Shea Theodore (1) VGK at ARI ($4,900 FD, $4,800 DK) - Theodore has two assists and six shots in his first three games, but has big game potential in him as the power play quarterback against Arizona.
Cody Ceci (0) TOR vs TB ($4,100 FD, $4,400 DK) - Ceci (one goal, two assists) offers some cap savings if you want a Toronto defensive option to pair with your expensive Maple Leaf lines.
Goalies
Connor Hellebuyck WPG vs MIN ($7,600 FD, $8,000 DK) - Hellebuyck has allowed six goals but recorded 63 saves (.913 SV%) in his first two starts, with the second start being a 37-save, 4-1 win at Pittsburgh on Tuesday. A home date against Minnesota offers some decent volume (34.9 projected shots against) at a low shooting percentage (9.0 S%).
Malcolm Subban VGK at ARI ($7,700 FD, $8,000 DK) - I always enjoy playing goalies against Arizona, and while the Coyotes are an improving team, they still struggle to score goals. Arizona records a good number of shots per game (32.4) but does not shoot particularly well (9.3 S%), adding up to a nice spot for the Vegas goalie.
John Gibson ANH at PIT ($8,300 FD, $7,400 DK) - This is a tournament-only option, but remember, saves are our primary target for goalies and the porous Anaheim defense (105.2 DR) gives Gibson a ton of save chances. Couple that with the fact that Evgeni Malkin is out for the Penguins and we've got a potential for a big fantasy point total from Gibson on Thursday.
