DFS NHL Breakdown: Thursday Line Stacks and Strategies

Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.

My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, the average rating is 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, Scoring Chances, High Danger Chances, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a high of 113.4 (VGK) to a low of 89.0 (DET), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a low of 93.6 (BOS) to a high of 110.2 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. The ratings in the chart below represent adjusted match up ratings.

Slate Preview

The main slate on Thursday contains eight games with some interesting matchups coast-to-coast as the Rangers travel to Tampa Bay, while Colorado travels to Edmonton for a Western showdown. Dallas is on the second of a back-to-back after winning 3-1 at Calgary on Wednesday; no teams are on the front end of a back-to-back. Below is a list of some highlighted tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings for Thursday.

The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentages. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication — this will be updated later in the day.

Line Stacks

The Line Stacks below are not necessarily my top projected scoring lines, but are the best value plays on the board. All players below have a number inside parenthesis next to their names, which denotes the power play unit they are on (1) or (2). If they are not on a power play they will be noted with a (0), and the rare occasion of a (3) means that they are on both power play units.

FLA1 vs. WPG: Aleksander Barkov (1) ($8,300 FD, $6,700 DK), Jonathan Huberdeau (1) ($7,600 FD, $7,000 DK), Evgenii Dadonov (1) ($6,300 FD, $6,000 DK) - Barkov, Huberdeau and Dadonov have combined for eight goals, 15 assists and 46 shots over their last five games, and Winnipeg has struggled defensively on their current road trip allowing 14 goals over their last three games — this could be an absolute smash spot for FLA1.

TB1 vs. NYR: Nikita Kucherov (1) ($8,100 FD, $7,500 DK), Brayden Point (1) ($7,200 FD, $6,800 DK), Tyler Johnson (2) ($4,800 FD, $5,300 DK) - TB1 is my top line of the night with a home date against the Rangers (111.3 DR) but it does not come without some risk. The Lightning are returning from a two-game series in Europe and history has shown teams can been sluggish upon returning to North America following these international games, but Kucherov, Point and Johnson have shown some signs of life with four goals, seven assists and 24 shots in their last five games.

COL1 at EDM: Nathan Mackinnon (1) ($8,900 FD, $8,300 DK), Joonas Donskoi (1) ($4,900 FD, $5,600 DK), Matt Calvert (0) ($3,900 FD, $4,300 DK) - Everyone was on McKinnon on Tuesday for his monster game but many overlooked the great value from Donskoi and Calvert, who have scored five goals with five assists and 17 shots in their last three games; mix that in with McKinnon's three goals, five assists and 20 shots over the last three and you've got a great trio. Edmonton has allowed the second-most scoring and high-danger chances (19.7/gm) on the slate after San Jose, so COL1 should be in a great spot to get some good chances Thursday.

BUF1 vs. CAR: Jack Eichel (1) ($8,100 FD, $7,700 DK), Sam Reinhart (1) ($5,800 FD, $5,900 DK), Victor Olofsson (1) ($5,700 FD, $5,400 DK) - Buffalo has not played on a Tuesday or Thursday since Oct. 24, so I have not written about them in a while, but Carolina has struggled on the road of late (lost five in a row, allowing 21 goals) so BUF1 looks to be in a good spot Thursday. Similar to Tampa Bay there could be some European series hangover here but with five goals, three assists and 21 shots in the two game series against the Lightning, Eichel, Reinhart and Olofsson appear to getting back into form after a couple quiet games.

ANH2 vs. SJ: Jakob Silfverberg (1) ($6,300 FD, $5,800 DK), Rickard Rakell (1) ($5,600 FD, $5,700 DK), Adam Henrique (1) ($5,700 FD, $5,400 DK) - As mentioned in the COL1 write up, San Jose has allowed the highest number of scoring and high-danger chances on the slate (22.0/gm), so the Silfverberg, Rakell and Henrique trio should be a in a great after three goals, six assists and 25 shots over the last three games.

LA1 vs. DET: Anze Kopitar (1) ($7,800 FD, $6,000 DK), Dustin Brown (1) ($5,600 FD, $4,600 DK), Alex Iafallo (1) ($3,900 FD, $3,600 DK) - Detroit (100.4 DR) has won three in a row but still maintains a league-high 3.75 goals/gm against (4.10/gm on the road). Kopitar, Brown and Iafallo have been solid in recent games with four goals, eight assists and 25 shots in their last five games. This line is a great value on DraftKings.

Other Options: EDM1 vs COL, DET1 at LA, FLA3 vs WPG, ANH1 vs SJ

Solo Forward Options

Steven Stamkos (1) TB2 vs. NYR ($7,900 FD, $7,300 DK) - Stamkos has not scored a goal in five games, but he does have four assists and 15 shots over that span. A good way to differentiate your TB1 stacks are to use Stamkos instead of Tyler Johnson for their home date against the Rangers (111.3 DR).

Mike Hoffman (1) FLA3 vs. WPG ($5,600 FD, $5,100 DK) - Hoffman got out to a hot start this season with five goals, two assists and 21 shots in his first four games of the season; but over the next 12 games he only managed to total one goal and two assists. However, in the last two games he has notched a goal and an assist to go along with 11 shots. A line shift to a pairing with Frank Vatrano and Denis Malgin might be beneficial for Hoffman in what is a great match up at home against Winnipeg.

Ryan Strome (1) NYR1 at TB ($5,400 FD, $5,200 DK) - Strome was held off the stat sheet in the fantasy scoring categories in the Rangers' previous game, but in the three games previous to that he had a goal and four assists. The match up at Tampa Bay is not ideal but the Lightning could be sluggish following their return from two games in Europe, and they have allowed 17 goals in their past five games (3.4/gm).

Ondrej Kase (0) ANH1 vs. SJ ($3,600 FD, $4,700 DK) - Kase is a great value on FanDuel, but more appropriately priced on DraftKings. After losing two weeks to an upper body injury, he return to two rather pedestrian games before recording a pair of assists and three shots on Tuesday against Detroit. A home game against a defensive challenged San Jose (101.1 DR) team should provide a nice spot for Kase on Thursday.

Brendan Lemieux (2) NYR3 at TB ($3,300 FD, $3,100 DK) - Lemieux has been a great value as of late with a goal, three assists, nine shots and nine blocks in his last five games. As mentioned under the Strome write up, Tampa Bay has recently struggled on defense.

Defensemen

Cale Makar (1) COL at EDM ($5,000 FD, $5,600 DK) - John Carlson and Dougie Hamilton, two of the league's elite defensemen for the last few years, are the only two blueliners averaging more points per game than 21-year-old Makar, who has been on a rampage with four goals, three assists and 14 shots in his last four games. See COL1 for details on the match up against Edmonton.

Keith Yandle (1) FLA vs. WPG ($5,600 FD, $5,000 DK) - Yandle is finally heating up with a goal and six assists in his last five games, eclipsing his totals from the first 13 games of the season. He is a great pairing at home against Winnipeg (102.3 DR) with your FLA1 stacks for both even strength and power play correlation.

Adam Fox (1) NYR at TB ($3,700 FD, $4,200 DK) - The 21-year-old Fox has been on a tear with two goals, four assists, 13 shots and five blocks in his last five games while earning a promotion to the top power play unit. Tampa Bay's defensive rating (96.6 DR) looks better than its actual play  lately (20 goals allowed in the last five games), so I expect a high-scoring affair.

Mathew Dumba (1) MIN vs. ARI ($4,100 FD, $4,400 DK) - This game is likely to be low scoring, but that doesn't mean Dumba can't be a great value for the price. He offers a great floor with four shots plus blocks per game in the last five, including goals in each of his last two games.

Brandon Montour (2) BUF vs. CAR ($4,100 FD, $3,700 DK) - Montour recently returned from an injury that has cost him all but three games this season; and while Rasmus Dahlin and Rasmus Ristolainen get the accolades in Buffalo, Montour is a better value play and has been added to the second power play unit. Look for him to continue building on his solid numbers from last year (2.2 shots/gm, 1.5 blocks/gm).

Goalies

Jonathan Quick LA vs. DET ($7,200 FD, $8,000 DK) - Quick's season-long numbers still look pretty ugly (3.96 GAA, .874 SV%), but that should help keep his ownership down. The truth is he has played great in his last three starts with a 2.39 GAA and .920 SV% that looks even better when you consider two of the games were on the road at Montreal and Toronto. Detroit is the worst team in my ranking system offensively (88.7 OR) while the Los Angeles defense (103.7 DR) is poor enough to still allow enough shots to make this a strong save total spot.

Jacob Markstrom VAN vs. DAL ($7,400 FD, $7,900 DK) - Even though Markstrom has dropped four consecutive decisions he has played well (2.23 GAA, .924 SV%), while drawing Dallas (2.42 goals/gm, 29th in the NHL) on the second of a back-to-back adds some value.

Antti Raanta ARI at MIN ($7,600 FD, $7,700 DK) / Devan Dubnyk MIN vs ARI ($7,400 FD, $7,800 DK) - Picking the winner of this game is very tough, my numbers slightly favor Minnesota, but I have the Arizona goalie getting more fantasy points based on saves and goals allowed. Whoever wins this low-scoring affair is likely to be a great play.