DFS NHL Breakdown: Monday Line Stacks and Strategies

Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.

My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, the average rating is 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 115.1 (TOR) to a worst of 84.0 (DET), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 91.7 (STL) to a worst of 113.6 (NYR). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. The ratings in the chart below represent adjusted match up ratings.

Slate Preview

Monday's slate provides a good sized nine-game schedule, highlighted by a pair of Western tilts that should have a playoff feel with St. Louis traveling to division foe Nashville, and Vegas traveling to Dallas. Buffalo will be playing the second night of a Florida back-to-back as they travel to Tampa Bay, while Minnesota and Dallas play the front end of back-to-backs. Below is a chart of some of the Monday tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings.

The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentages. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

Line Stacks

The line stacks below are not necessarily my top projected scoring lines but are the best value plays on the board. All players below have a number inside parenthesis next to their names, which denotes the power play unit they are on (1) or (2). If they are not on a power play they will be noted with a (0), and the rare occasion of a (3) means that they are on both power play units.

TB1 vs BUF: Nikita Kucherov (1) ($8,200 FD, $8,300 DK), Brayden Point (1) ($7,300 FD, $7,000 DK), Ondrej Palat (2) ($5,500 FD, $5,000 DK) - Aside from being one of the more talented lines in the league, TB1 draws a home game against Buffalo, the only team on the slate playing the second of a back-to-back. Kucherov, Point and Palat have combined for seven goals, eight assists and 27 shots over the past five games and will likely be seeing a struggling Carter Hutton (4.73 GAA, .854 SV% over last three games) in net for the Sabres.

PIT1 vs. CGY: Evgeni Malkin (1) ($8,600 FD, $7,500 DK), Jake Guentzel (1) ($7,600 FD, $7,500 DK), Bryan Rust (1) ($5,000 FD, $6,800 DK) - Calgary is not an elite matchup (100.1 DR), but prior to Saturday's victory at Philadelphia they had lost six in a row while allowing 23 goals (3.83/gm). Since the injury to Sidney Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel and Rust have stepped up their games and have tallied eight goals, 11 assists and a whopping 45 shots in the last four games. Rust has been promoted to the top power unit, giving this line full power play correlation as well.

Update: DAL1 vs. VGK: Tyler Seguin (1) ($7,900 FD, $7,600 DK), Jamie Benn (1) ($6,800 FD, $5,600 DK), Roope Hintz (2) ($5,800 FD, $4,100 DK) - With the confirmation that Malcolm Subban is starting in net for Vegas, DAL1 moves into a top spot in my rankings. The center/center/wing alignment of Seguin/Hintz/Benn should keep their ownership down offering even more value than just their on ice play which has been great of late (Seguin/Benn have seven goals, eight assists and 46 shots in their last five games, while Hintz scored in his first game back from a three-week injury absence).

SJ1 at LA: Evander Kane (1) ($7,500 FD, $7,200 DK), Logan Couture (1) ($7,100 FD, $6,000 DK), Kevin Labanc (1) ($4,700 FD, $4,800 DK) - The Kings have improved defensively, but SJ1 still provides a solid option Monday. Couture, Kane and Labanc have combined for six goals, 10 assists and 50 shots over the last five games, and even if the Kings maintain their solid play, the upside of this line getting 10 shots is massive.

PHI1 vs. VAN: Claude Giroux (1) ($7,900 FD, $6,500 DK), Travis Konecny (1) ($6,500 FD, $5,400 DK), Morgan Frost (1) ($4,000 FD, $5,200 DK) - Vancouver (105.4 DR) played an amazing defensive game at Washington on Saturday, but they had allowed 32 goals in their previous eight games and offer a great matchup for PHI1 on Monday. In three games since Frost has been called up from Lehigh Valley, PHI1 has combined for four goals, seven assists and 28 shots.

OTT2 at CBJ: Brady Tkachuk (1) ($6,400 FD, $7,100 DK), Anthony Duclair (1) ($5,100 FD, $5,700 DK), Logan Brown (1) ($4,200 FD, $3,600 DK) - Tkachuk, Duclair and Brown have played great together in the last four games, combining for seven goals, five assists and 38 shots. A road date at Columbus (100.4 DR) and Joonas Korpisalo (2.99 GAA, .901 SV% over the last four games) offers up a middle of a road defense that is prone to getting into shootouts.

CBJ1 vs. OTT: Pierre-Luc Dubois (1) ($5,700 FD, $5,800 DK), Emil Bemstrom (2) ($3,400 FD, $3,400 DK), Sonny Milano (0) ($3,200 FD, $2,900 DK) - Ottawa (107.9 DR) has improved defensively this year behind the excellent play of Jean-Gabriel Pageau, but with the Senators being on the road, Columbus gets the advantage of final line matching, allowing Dubois and Bemstrom (five goals, five assists and 24 shots over last five games) to get more time away from Pageau. Milano has a pair of assists and four shots over the last five games, but you can consider cutting him from the stack.

Other Options: PHI2 vs VAN, VAN1 at PHI, LA1 vs SJ, MIN1/2 at NYR, CBJ2/3 vs OTT, SJ2 at LA, PIT2 vs CGY, *DAL1 vs VGK (with Malcolm Subban in net for Vegas)

Solo Forward Options

Cam Atkinson (2) CBJ2 vs OTT ($7,000 FD, $6,100 DK) - I wrote up Atkinson last Thursday saying I'd be willing to bet he would break out of his funk and score a goal; he not only scored, he added an assist as well. A goal, four assists and 15 shots over his last five, plus a home game against Ottawa makes Atkinson another great solo play Monday.

Zach Parise (1) MIN2 at NYR ($5,900 FD, $5,000 DK) - Parise has scored four goals, added an assist and taken 18 shots over the last five games. With a road game at the Rangers (112.7 DR), his spot on the second Minnesota line should give him better matchups against the Rangers defense.

Mats Zuccarello (2) MIN1 at NYR ($5,400 FD, $4,000 DK) - Zach Parise and MIN2 will likely draw better matchups, but the Rangers do not really have a good defensive line anyways, so Zuccarello could be in line for a nice revenge game. He has a goal, three assists and seven shots over his last three games.

Jared McCann (2) PIT2 vs CGY ($4,500 FD, $4,400 DK) - McCann has benefited from the waterfall of change to the Pittsburgh lineup following the Sidney Crosby injury, and over the last five games he has a pair of goals, one assist and 10 shots.

Ondrej Kase (2) ANH3 vs NYI ($3,900 FD, $4,400 DK) - The Islanders (103.7 DR) have won five of six but have struggled defensively, allowing 16 goals over their last five games (3.2/gm). Kase has been playing well away from the top lines where he can be more of the focus of the offense, and he has recorded three shots in each of the last five games, as well as a goal and assist in Florida on Thursday.

Defensemen

Victor Hedman (1) TB vs BUF ($6,400 FD, $7,100 DK) - Hedman has been a beast of late with a goal, eight assists, 16 shots and eight blocks over his last five games. Buffalo will be tired Monday, providing Hedman with a great spot to continue his strong play.

Zach Werenski (1) CBJ vs. OTT ($6,000 FD, $5,600 DK) - With Ottawa in town, Werenski and Columbus are in a great spot offensively. It also doesn't hurt that he had two goals, five assists, 16 shots and six blocks over his past five games.

Ryan Suter (1) MIN at NYR ($4,800 FD, $3,800 DK) - Suter has five assists over his last three games and draws a great matchup at the Rangers on Monday. At $3,800, he is an elite value on DraftKings.

Adam Fox (2) NYR vs. MIN ($3,800 FD, $4,100 DK) - Fox has slowed down a little from a torrid stretch earlier this month, but he still has tallied a pair of assists, eight shots and two blocks over his last three games.

Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy TB vs BUF ($8,700 FD, $8,500 DK) - Vasilevskiy is the top goalie on the slate with a home date against a tired and struggling Buffalo team (92.2 OR) that has only scored four goals over their last three games, as well as losing nine of their last 10.

Update: Tristan Jarry PIT vs CGY ($7,700 FD, $8,400 DK) - Calgary won 3-2 in a shootout at Philadelphia on Saturday, but prior to that they had lost six in a row while being shut out three times and only scoring six goals over that losing streak. Jarry seems to have temporarily taken over as the main goalie for Pittsburgh after recording a 1.80 GAA and .945 SV% in six games this season.

Thomas Greiss NYI at ANH ($7,800 FD, $7,700 DK) - Greiss has been great this year with a 2.07 GAA and .934 SV%, and he has only given up more than three goals once. Anaheim is not a good offensive team (2.6 goals/gm over their last 10 games), so I like the spot for Greiss on Monday.

Tournament Punt Option: Juuse Saros NSH vs STL ($7,400 FD, $7,500 DK)