This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
WM Phoenix Open
Scottsdale, Arizona
TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) - Par 71 - 7,261 yards
Field - 132 entrants
Purse - $8.8M
The Preview
Although it may have fallen out of the Signature Event rotation, the WM Phoenix Open remains "The Greatest Show on Grass," and I'll certainly be making the five-minute trip down the street to join in on the ruckus again this year. The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale is not overly challenging, but it tends to honor elite all-around games like a tougher track would, and a handful of risk-reward opportunities throughout the par-71 layout bring even more excitement to the table.
Approach play is still paramount, but power off the tee could lend more of an advantage than past editions of the WMPO, given cooler temperatures and an unusual amount of rain will soften the grounds this week. In turn, these winter-season putting surfaces that contain a smooth poa trivialis strain with rye overseed could play abnormally slow, and the greens weren't even all that fast when I played the course last week before all this precipitation. Nonetheless, Sunday's final-round forecast calls for sunny skies and favorable scoring conditions as a champion is set to be crowned ahead of Super Bowl kickoff.
Recent Champions
2023 - Scottie Scheffler
2022 - Scottie Scheffler
2021 - Brooks Koepka
2020 - Webb Simpson
2019 - Rickie Fowler
2018 - Gary Woodland
2017 - Hideki Matsuyama
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama
2015 - Brooks Koepka
2014 - Kevin Stadler
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Proximity: 125-200 yards
Total Driving
Birdie or Better percentage
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Scottie Scheffler - $45
A $50-plus salary wouldn't have been drastic enough to keep Scheffler from being one of the highest-owned players on the slate, so this $45 tag represents an especially inexpensive chance to gain exposure on the 5/1 tournament favorite as he seeks his third consecutive triumph at TPC Scottsdale. Scheffler is No. 1 in each of SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach and Opportunities Gained over his last 36 measured rounds, and he's gained a collective 15.8 strokes putting on these greens across his past three WMPO outings. He's also coming off a T6 performance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am where he paced the field in GIR percentage.
Justin Thomas - $38
Following WDs from names like Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele ahead of this week's event, a $38 Thomas becomes an even easier click, and he could enter free-square territory in cash games at this deflated salary. An impressive track record at the WM Phoenix Open includes finishes of 4-T8-T13-T3-3 in his last five visits, and he began his 2024 campaign with back-to-back top-6 efforts at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The American Express. He missed only nine greens in regulation this past week at Pebble, and he converted all nine of those scrambling opportunities for par. Over his last 12 rounds, Thomas is second in driving distance, third in SG: Par-5 and fourth in P4: 400-450 Efficiency.
Sam Burns - $38
Much like JT, it's laughable that Burns appears below guys like Brian Harman ($42), Tom Kim ($41), Sahith Theegala ($40) and Cameron Young ($39) on the board. Our competitors are likely to identify this obvious miscalculation as well, so expect some inflated ownership on Burns shares. Burns tied for sixth here last year thanks in large part to a seven-under 64 in Round 3, and he ultimately gained 7.3 strokes from tee to green throughout the week. Rebounding from a pedestrian 33rd-place finish at The Sentry to open the calendar year, Burns notched top-10s at The American Express and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he ranked T2 among the field in birdies with 18 total tweeters across 54 holes.
Glue Guys
Byeong Hun An - $35
Sporting a WMPO resume that includes a pair of top-10s, two additional top-25s and a perfect 5-for-5 in cuts made, An's admirable combination of course history and course fit has him as short as 22/1 in the outright betting market. Not only has An gained at least two strokes putting in each of his first three starts to begin the 2024 season, but he's also No. 1 in P4: 400-450 Efficiency, third in Birdies or Better Gained and sixth in SG: OTT over his last 24 rounds.
Hideki Matsuyama - $34
Some questionable recent form hopefully keeps Matsuyama's ownership in check, because the two-time WMPO champion otherwise is a horse for the course. He's finished top-8 in half of his 10 career appearances at TPC Scottsdale, but he hasn't posted a single top-10 on the PGA Tour in almost 11 months. The putter has been ice cold for Matsuyama thus far in 2024, but if positive regression were to arrive anywhere, it'd probably be here. Prior to his disappointing 71st-place finish at Pebble Beach last week, Matsuyama gained 7.3 strokes from tee to green on the South Course at Torrey Pines en route to a top-15 result at the Farmers Insurance Open.
Akshay Bhatia - $29
Racking up a trio of top-15s across four starts to begin his 2024 campaign, Bhatia ranks first in Prox: 150-175 yards, eighth in Birdies or Better Gained, 11th in SG: Putting and 15th in P4: 450-500 Efficiency over his last 12 measured rounds. The 22-year-old will be making his WM Phoenix Open debut, but inexperience doesn't mean he can't thrive in this bright-lights atmosphere right away.
Bargain Bin
Chesson Hadley - $23
Placing top-25 in three of his last five voyages to TPC Scottsdale, Hadley enters this year's edition ranked third in P4: 450-500 Efficiency, fifth in Prox: 125-150, ninth in SG: Par-3, 11th in SG: Putting and 13th in SG: APP over his last 24 rounds. That concoction guides him to the No. 6 spot in my custom model within this sample size, and he hasn't missed a cut on Tour since last July's John Deere Classic.
Kevin Yu - $20
After back-to-back top-6 efforts at The American Express and the Farmers Insurance Open, Yu could not get the flat stick going at Pebble Beach this past week, though he managed to gain 4.9 strokes with his irons. Yahoo is late to adjust his salary from the $20 minimum, so Yu will be a no-brainer target down in this range. Over his last 12 measured rounds, Yu is second to none in SG: OTT and 16th in Opportunities Gained.
Daniel Berger - $20
Berger's backers were let down by a 12.0 fantasy-point performance on the way to a missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open after his 96-point effort the week prior at The American Express in his return from a lengthy hiatus, but he's still intriguing to consider for GPPs at the minimum salary. He's placed 11th or better in half of his eight career WMPO outings, and he finished on the positive side of SG: OTT during his one round on the South Course at Torrey Pines. Additionally, Berger has gained an average of 0.71 strokes putting per round throughout his 26 total rounds at TPC Scottsdale.
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