Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview: Texas Children's Houston Open

Texas Children's Houston Open

Memorial Park Golf Course
Houston, TX

The PGA Tour heads to Houston for the Texas Children's Houston Open.

It's an age-old question in the game of golf – would you rather have the lead on the back-nine on Sunday, or be just off the lead? On the surface it seems like a silly question, after all, in any other sport you'd prefer to have the lead, but golf is the only sport where you have an inordinate amount of time to think about what's going on and thought is often the enemy of success in sports.  Golf is preparatory, not reactionary. Sure, you might react to what your opponent is doing, but you're not actively playing defense or reacting to how your opponent is playing defense, you're making a shot, then planning the next one, time and time again. That is why we've long debated the question about being in the lead.

It's impossible to quantify how a lead can affect an individual and it's different for everyone, but after watching golf on the PGA Tour for the first few months of this season, it's safe to say that playing in the lead is an entirely different experience than playing from behind.

I bring this up because as you all know, it happened again. A 54-hole lead disappeared because the one in the lead simply lost his game. This time it was Sungjae Im, who looked like his old self for most of the week, only to fall apart early in the round on Sunday.

I write week after week that I don't believe that these meltdowns will have a lasting effect, and I still believe that because as it becomes more common to fall apart in the final round, the golfers will realize that they aren't alone in this battle and that there's no reason to beat yourself up about cracking under pressure. 

The question is, what happens the next time any of these guys are in the same position. The closest thing we have to understanding that is Matt Fitzpatrick, who was one of the guys who blew a Sunday lead this year, and has now recovered and found his way back to the winner's circle. I should point out however that Fitzpatrick's lead at The PLAYERS was always tenuous and he didn't fall apart like others have this season, he merely got caught late in the round and couldn't hold on, so perhaps he didn't have the scars that the others may have, so we'll probably have to wait a little longer to see what happens when the guys that did crumble, find themselves with a Sunday lead again.

Okay, enough about final-round collapses, let's look ahead. This week we've got the Texas Children's Houston Open and unfortunately, Scottie Scheffler has pulled out, which takes a lot of air out of this week. We do have some bigger names in the field though, so it's not a total bust.

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LAST YEAR

Min Woo Lee shot a final round 67 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Gary Woodland and Scottie Scheffler.

FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 3:30 PM ET Tuesday.

Min Woo Lee (13-1) 

I'm a little surprised to see Lee as the favorite this week, as there are some bigger names in the field and Lee is the defending champ. In addition, he's the clear favorite, which is a little more surprising, but I can see why he'd be a popular pick. Lee is off to a solid start this season with three top-15s, including a runner-up at Pebble Beach. The question is how well does this course suit Lee? Yes, he won this event a year ago, but it was his first start here, so was it form that carried him across the finish line or a feel for the course? We'll find out soon enough, but I have to admit, at this price, I wouldn't be placing a win wager on Lee.

Chris Gotterup (18-1)

Gotterup has excelled in these spots over the past 12 months and he might be ready to do it again. By "these spots" I'm talking about fields with a handful of top players, but not too many top-tier guys. Gotterup knows how to win on the PGA Tour and I dare say of he's the one in the lead on Sunday, he'll be fine, but he has to get into that position first. He's only played this event two times, with mixed results, but he did post a top-20 this past year, so perhaps he's getting the hang of this place. There's not a ton of value at this price, but I would think about this play.  

Jake Knapp (20-1)

Knapp was cruising along this season until he tweaked his back prior to the API. He withdrew from that event and missed the cut the following week at The PLAYERS, but he's had two weeks to get right and if he's back to 100%, he should be a factor this week. Then again, momentum is a funny thing in golf, sometimes when you lose it, it doesn't come back for a while. That being said, there's not a ton of risk in a win wager, so why not get him at a good price this week? His track record here is limited, but he did card three rounds at 67 or lower here this past year.

Visit our golf betting section for the latest PGA odds and finishing props from multiple sportsbooks.

THE NEXT TIER

Brooks Koepka (22-1)

The WD from Scheffler has really leveled the odds for the field, so there's not a huge distinction between the favorites and the next tier this week. Koepka looks like he's getting really close. The high-end results haven't been there, but every week it seems like he's getting closer. He's having trouble finishing this season and that might be do to the fact that he's been playing 54-hole events for the past few years, but eventually he's going to figure it out. His track record here isn't great, he's missed 2/3 cuts, but he did post a T5 in 2020.

Sam Burns (25-1)           

Burns has been all over the place this season with as many missed cuts and made cuts, but when he's made the cut this season, he's generally fared pretty well on the weekend. He placed T6 at Pebble Beach in February and he was top-15 at The PLAYERS two weeks ago. Burns has fared well in the state of Texas in his career, so a return this week might be just what he needs to find some consistency. Like his play this season, his track record here is all over the place, with two made cuts in four starts, but both of those made cuts resulted in T7s. Burns is a guy who I would not worry much about if he were in the lead on Sunday.

Ryan Gerard (33-1)

Gerard was on a roll early in the season, but as the fields got better, his results faded. He posted runner-up finishes in his first two starts this season and while his results faded after that, he's still only finished outside the top-30 in 2/8 starts this year. He looks like he's figuring things out and this could be a spot where he breaks through. He's played this event just once, but that resulted in a T9. Gerard has a win at an opposite-field event, now it's time to put a regular tour win on his resume.       

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LONG SHOTS

Stephan Jaeger (60-1)  

A couple things I look for in a longshot. The ability to win on the PGA Tour and a solid course history. Jaeger checks both of those boxes and it's because he won this event in 2024. In addition to winning here in '24, he finished T9 in 2023 and T11 in 2025. He definitely has a feel for this course. As you might imagine, his form isn't that great heading into this week, which is why he's a longshot, but he did post a T7 this past week at the Valspar, so perhaps he's rounding into form at the perfect time.

Tony Finau (60-1)           

It wasn't that long ago that we were all waiting for Finau to get his first PGA Tour win in a regular tour stop and once he did that, we thought the sky was the limit. He followed that win with four more over the next two seasons and it seemed like he was on the right track, but his game fell off in 2025 and he's yet to find his way back. Here's the thing though, he's still in his mid-30s, so he's still got some peak years ahead of him. As for this week, he looks like a decent longshot because his game looks to be on the way back. His track record here is also very solid, with a win in 2022 and a runner-up in 2024.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Brooks Koepka – I thought Koepka would be popular at the Valspar, but he'll likely be more popular in Houston. A lot of that depends on what people do with Min Woo Lee, but as the defending champion, I can tell you that a lot of OAD players will not go there. As for Koepka, he's rounding into form, getting very close and I think this could be the week that he get's back into the winner's circle. You will have a lot of company if you go this route however.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Jake Knapp – I was debating putting Gotterup here, but I think the OAD players will go with the bounce back theory on Knapp. His injury was referred to as a tweak, which makes me think it wasn't anything big, then again, it is his back and we all know how problematic they can be. The other question with Knapp is, do you want to save him for a signature event? If he's as good as he looked early in the season, he might have some value down the road.     

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Stephan Jaeger – Going pretty far down the list here, but he's got everything you'd want out of a lightly-used player this week. You'll probably be the only one on him, which is always nice and he's been inside the top-11 in his past three starts here. He hasn't had a great season, but he posted a top-10 a week ago, so maybe his form is good enough to contend this week. I think this is a sneaky solid play.

Buyer Beware: Min Woo Lee – If defending a title wasn't enough pressure, with Scottie Scheffler pulling out, Lee is now the odds-on favorite. Lee is off to a strong start this season, but the added pressure of expectations and the added attention that comes with defending a title might be a bit too much this week. Add to that, Lee doesn't have a long track record of success here, he's only played this event once, so we can't be sure he's got a great feel for this course, he may have just caught lightning in a bottle this past year. I'm sure he'll do okay, but I don't think he'll be in contention on Sunday and you don't use a guy like Lee unless you think he can win.    

My Pick: Brooks Koepka – I think he's going to be a popular play this week, but there's good reason for that. Not only is he a good play because of the numbers, but he's also a good strategical play. Koepka is not currently in the signature events and I don't think I'll be using him at a major this season, so this looks like the perfect spot. He has played well here before (T5 in 2020) and his form is really coming around. He just needs to find that extra gear to finish strong and he could find himself in the winner's circle again.  

Previous Results

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FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Brooks Koepka ($11,300)
Middle Range: Ryan Gerard ($9,900)
Lower Range: S.H. Kim ($8,200)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

My Pick: Brooks Koepka – I'm going to double-up this week with Koepka. This isn't the old Koepka that couldn't focus at these smaller events. He's played well in almost every spot this season and he realizes the opportunity at hand this week. He doesn't have a ton of experience here, so this pick is based more on current form and the situation he's in. 

Previous Results