Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard

Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Orlando, FL

The PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill for another edition of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

When Hideki Matsuyama lost his direction off the tee in the final round of the WM Open in February, I thought that was a once in a couple-years kind of event. You know, a top-tier golfer, in complete control of an event, expected to win, only to get wayward off the tee and blow it.

Well, this year that's apparently at least a twice-a-year event, as it just happened again. This time it was Shane Lowry and unlike Matsuyama, he wasn't struggling with his driver all round, he just lost it over the final few holes and man did he lose it. After losing his tee shot in the water on 16, his lead was nearly gone, so you'd think he'd have a "safe" tee shot to pull out on the 17th, but unfortunately for Lowry, there really isn't much of a safe place to hit it on the 17th and you all know what happened next. From there, it was all on Nico Echavarria not to blow it and for a few minutes, it looked like he might just do that.

Pressure and expectations are an amazing force. Lowry was expected to win as late as the 17th-tee on Sunday and you saw what happened. Meanwhile, Echavarria was charging hard after Lowry…until he realized that not only did he catch Lowry, but he was now in the driver's seat. You could almost see the exact moment he went from the hunter to the hunted, and it undoubtedly affected his game on the final hole. Luckily for Echavarria, there were only a few shots that he had to execute while in the lead, otherwise it might have been a complete train wreck down the stretch.

It was a train wreck for Lowry, but much like Matsuyama, I don't expect this to have lingering effects. Both guys have several wins and while blowing a win is tough, it's not like it was a major or even a signature event. They'll both be fine, but for Lowry at least, it might take a week or two to put this one behind him.

Lowry's misfortune aside, it was a fairly uneventful week at the Cognizant. Sure, Brooks Koepka seemed to have found his game, but overall it was a tough week. Not only did this event suffer a couple big withdrawals early in the week, but it also had tee times pushed up on Saturday, which lead to tape-delayed coverage. From there, it looked like a runway for Lowry until his unfortunate demise late-Sunday, but his big lead likely led to a lot of people checking out before the end. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cognizant had some of the worst ratings we'll see all season.

That's all in the past now though, as we look ahead, we've got a great two-week stretch, with the AP Invitational this week, followed by The PLAYERS next week. For those in fantasy leagues, this two-week stretch should have a major impact on your league's standings.

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LAST YEAR

Russell Henley shot a final round 70 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Collin Morikawa.

FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 4:30 PM ET Tuesday.

Scottie Scheffler (7-2) 

There is only one question this week regarding Scheffler and that's – will he stumble out of the gate again? If so, then it's going to be tough to make yet another comeback against a field this strong. If he starts well, then the rest of the field is in trouble because Scheffler has had a lot of success here. Scheffler has played this event five times and he's yet to finished outside the top-15. He's also won this thing twice, so if he's in position on Sunday, he'll have some good memories to look back on to get him across the finish line…Not that he needs any help closing out rounds on Sunday.

Rory McIlroy (10-1)

This is a bit of a change as McIlroy has often had a bit longer odds when in the same event as Scheffler recently, but this week he's down to 10-1. There are a couple reasons why his odds are falling heading into this week. First, he's coming off a nice showing two weeks ago at the Genesis, where he nearly chased down Jacob Bridgeman, who started the final round with a six-shot lead over McIlroy. The second reason is his track record at this event, which is every bit as good as Scheffler's. McIlroy has played this event 11 times and made the cut each time. He's finished inside the top-10 in over half of those starts and he's never finished worse than T27. Remember, this hasn't always been a signature event, so most of those 11 starts were full-field events. McIlroy also has one win here, in 2017.

Tommy Fleetwood (19-1)

Fleetwood retains his spot as the third wheel to Scheffler and McIlroy, but things are getting tighter behind him. The reason why he's still third in line is his performance so far this season. Fleetwood has finished inside the top-10 in both of his starts on the PGA Tour this season, but it could be a challenge to make it three in a row this week. Fleetwood's track record here is all over the place. He's had some good showings at this event, but he's also missed the cut here a couple times. His best showing came in 2019 when he finished T3. He has three top-10s in total, but just the one top-5.  

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THE NEXT TIER

Xander Schauffele (22-1)

This pick is based solely on a hunch that Schauffele is rounding into form. There's nothing in his track record here that makes me think he's a good play, he's played here four times with nothing better than a T24, but I have a feeling that we're done with this middling version of Schauffele and sometime soon, maybe this week, he's going to start to resemble the two-time major winner. His results are trending the right way, with a T41 three starts back, a T19 two starts back and a T7 in his most recent start. Remember, 22-1 odds on Schauffele are not the norm, when he's playing well, he's usually third in line behind Scheffler and McIlroy.

Collin Morikawa (25-1) 

This one makes me a little nervous because Morikawa hasn't exactly panned out of the past couple season when a lot was expected of him and expectations will likely be high this week. Morikawa won at Pebble Beach in early February and he finished inside the top-10 at the Genesis a couple week ago, so we know his form is good. He also had a great showing at this event this past year when he finished solo-2nd. His track record here is hit or miss, with two MCs and two top-10s in five starts, but overall, he looks like a good play this week.

Russell Henley (35-1)

I'm not as high on Henley as some this season, but I think this is a spot where he could make some noise again. He was the surprise winner here a year ago and that win propelled him to a career-high in earnings in the single season. As for this year, he's not off to a great start, he missed the cut at the Genesis two weeks ago, but he does have three top-20s in four starts and though he missed the cut at the Genesis, he did recover well with a 68 in the second round after posting a 76 in the opening round. It's a bit of a leap of faith as he doesn't appear to be trending the right way, but again, he wasn't expected to win this past year and he pulled it off, so you never know.    

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LONG SHOTS

Jacob Bridgeman (60-1)            

This isn't a play I would normally make, usually I steer clear of golfers that are coming off a career changing wins, but Bridgeman might follow in the footsteps of Chris Gotterup and just go on a crazy run here. There's also the chance that he's still living in the past and celebration-mode is still in effect from his win at the Genesis, but maybe he's one of those guys that just gets better after a big win, you know, the confidence boost. Okay, it's not a lot to go on, but these are longshots down here. If you believe that Bridgeman is still ascending, then maybe he shocks the world and wins another signature event.

Keegan Bradley (70-1) 

What a difference a year makes. A year ago, Bradley was trying to play his way into an auto-berth on the Ryder Cup team and his top-5 at this event jump started a run that saw him nearly meet this goal. We all know how that ended, but now Bradley's goal is to simply start earning points towards making the team in 2027. If that's the goal, he'll want to get going soon because things haven't exactly panned out early in the season. With that said, Bradley has a strong track record at this event and getting back to Bay Hill might again jump start his season. Bradley has teed it up here 14 times and missed the cut just once. Bradley's best showings came over a decade ago when he posted top-3s in consecutive years, but as mentioned previously, he did post a top-5 here this past year and had a stretch of three top-11s from 2021-2023.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Collin Morikawa – This is an interesting part of the season because we're getting into the thick of the signature events and all the players are in the mix. There isn't a single player in the field that you need to hold off on because of future events. In other words, Scheffler is in play this week as is Rory. There might be better spots down the road, but I wouldn't argue with their selection this week. With that said, most OAD players will wait until at least The PLAYERS before they pull the trigger on McIlroy or Scheffler, so that leaves Morikawa as the likely play this week. As mentioned earlier, Morikawa has a lot going for him, maybe too much, we'll see. Again, I can't argue with this pick, but he's going to be very popular.      

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick – Fitzpatrick is going to be the popular play among the stat geeks this week. I'm still deciding myself if I'm in that camp, but I have to admit, he looks pretty tempting. Bay Hill is a ball-striker's course and Fitzpatrick ranks 4th on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach to the Green this season. He struck the ball very well at the Genesis a couple weeks ago, but his putter let him down. The good news is, those were Poa greens at Riviera and this week we're on Bermuda greens. Fitzpatrick also has a strong track record here with four top-10s in 11 starts. He also had a stretch here from 2019 through 2023 where he finished no worse than T14.    

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Keegan Bradley – Bradley has a way up coming out of nowhere to play well at big events and this week is setting up like one of those events. Not many are mentioning him as a contender this week and I'm sure that suits him just fine. He's a bit of a reach right now to take at a signature event, which is why he won't be very popular, but he could help you pick up some ground on the competition this week with a good performance.            

Buyer Beware: Hideki Matsuyama – Matsuyama seems to have recovered from his own final-round meltdown, but he's never really had much success at Bay Hill. He's teed it up here 11 times and while he's made the cut 10 times, he's only cracked the top-10 one time. That's actually an amazing stat for a golfer the caliber of Matsuyama. He's played the weekend here 10 times and finished inside the top-10 just once. There are simply too many good options this week to use Matsuyama in this format.

My Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick –  I really wanted to use Scheffler this week, but then I realized that if I picked Scheffler this week, I would be assuming that he's put his opening-round struggles behind him and while I believe that to be true, I have no proof and you really can't afford to waste Scheffler if you want to win your OAD pool. With all that said, I'm going to wait on Scheffler and go with Fitzpatrick, who seems to have all the metrics working in his favor this week. He's among the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour this season, which is key at Bay Hill, and his track record here is very strong. There are a lot of good picks this week, but Fitzpatrick appears to be as good as any of them.

Previous Results

View the PGA earnings report to find total winnings and winnings per entry via our fantasy golf stats pages.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Matt Fitzpatrick ($11,400)
Middle Range: Viktor Hovland ($9,900)
Lower Range: Keegan Bradley ($8,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

My Pick: Keegan Bradley – There is a cut line this week, but like the Genesis, were only going to lose about a dozen players, so even though McIlroy would be a good play this week, I don't think you want to burn him when the odds of missing the cut are so low. Bradley is not having a great season, but he's only missed the cut here once in 14 tries, so you know he's got a great feel for this course. I also think he'll use this week as a springboard for his season, so he won't be satisfied with just making the cut.    

Previous Results