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2024 Sanderson Farms Championship: FedExCup Fall continues...
If you ever get a chance to attend a team match in golf, seize the opportunity. Royal Montreal Golf Club was a worthy layout, and the International Team shocked us all on Friday. Tony Finau and Scottie Scheffler were sent in Friday night to explain the 0-5 sweep and their inner confidence shined through the immediate storyline. Finau finished by saying, "he believes in the guys, and they will get the job done." With 10 members (of 12) on their team inside the top 20 of the OWGR they certainly did. The United States won by seven points when only 30 were available. Years from now the score will show another blowout. Those of us who were there know the real narrative. The International side continues to grow closer. Medinah in two years should be another beating but watch out in Australia (2028). Team leader Adam Scott should be the captain, and those two factors alone should make it very close.
Don't be fooled by the scoreboard and think the Presidents Cup needs a complete overhaul. Sure, the daily format could be changed, but the event itself is well attended and entertaining. I'd strongly suggest a move away from football, but that's just me. Congratulations to the American side for ten straight wins. The US core is loaded, and they better be. With the PGAA including LIV players and most likely the DP World Tour too, the conflict in Canada spurred on by the Kims will be a brutal battle on Bethpage Black. I'll be in NYC next Tuesday for the Captain's media day. The emotion is there already. Captain Bradley won't have much time to celebrate this win as we all prepare for what will be golf's biggest event in 2025.
2024 Sanderson Farms Championship: Action Jackson
Remember the motivation by the fall fields in the race for FedExCup points. The top 125 get their card for 2025. Fifty-one through sixty qualify for those coveted February signature events. There are seven fall events left. Six of those are repeat venues from a year ago. Next week, we will see a brand-new event. As for this week, 132 players are heading to Jackson, Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Contested at the Country Club of Jackson since 2014, a decade of history helps anytime we are predicting winners. CC of J is a 45-hole facility. The PGA TOUR utilizes the Dogwood and Azalea nines for the championship.
The Champion Bermudagrass greens are in perfect shape for the TOUR. The weather has been solid in September. The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-80s and a slight chance of rain (<15%) on Thursday and Friday. The breeze will be blowing just enough to provide some relief from the heat. Eight to nine miles per hour all four days out of the northeast, it won't cause too much concern on approach. The purse is $7.6 million dollars, and the winner will receive $1.4 million. Recent champions run the full spectrum from household names to TOUR journeymen. Luke List won a year ago in a five-way playoff over Scott Stallings, Henrik Norlander, Ludvig Aberg, and Ben Griffin.
All five tied at 18 under par. Ironically, the average winning score over the last decade is 18.8 under par. Those same ten winners also averaged 24 sub-par scores in the year they won. CC of Jackson will serve up some low scores. The top 65 and ties that make the cut need to attack the 6,200 sq/ft (on average) greens and make birdies. Twelve holes carry a +15% birdie rate or higher. Thirty-six percent of the approach shots fall from 100-150 yards. A par 72 with four par 5s measuring 7,461 is super short in 2024 for the PGA TOUR. The few people that do watch this tournament over football will see players with a wedge in their hand on almost every hole.
There is one player in the top 50 of the OWGR (Dunlap) in the field and 48 of the top 150. That second range catches my attention. Those players would really benefit from contending and ultimately winning this week. Many names in that group litter the top of the betting board. Looking back over previous fall runs, these are the same players who have made moves in autumn. Keep in mind, if they were successful in the fall before, we are playing seven of the same eight venues. This is their moment to get inside that top "10" (51-60) and dramatically change the trajectory of their career.
Let's use Patton Kizzire as a quick example. He just won the Procore Championship in Napa. Kizzire doesn't have to go to Jackson, MS. Yet, he has three wins in career, two in the fall. Patton has 20 top 10s in his career, nine came in the fall run of events. The FedEx Cup Fall has an undercurrent of middle tier motivation. I looked at the past two fall results and researched who the best players are on these specific courses. Then I looked at who is trending since the US Open toward a win. Who really wants/needs the points. With that level of research, we will get a couple wins. Let's close out the PGA TOUR season in style and carry more momentum into 2025!
2024 Sanderson Farms Championship: "Champion" Bermuda
Scores will be low this week in Jackson. The path to 20 under starts off the tee and on the greens. Sure, you will see and hear a ton of content covering the approach range of 100-150 yards. Those pundits are correct, approximately 40% of the approach shots fall in that range. The fact is on the PGA TOUR, one-third of the players are really, really good at those shots. Yes, even in this stellar field. So, what will separate the top 44 wedge players? I would start with the putter. Eight of the last 10 winners have gained over three strokes on the field the year they won. That is a significant indicator for success.
To compound the separation, we will see on the putting surfaces, these are Champion Bermudagrass greens. Some of the purest Bermuda greens on TOUR. The best Bermuda putters excel at CC of Jackson. When the contenders knock 35 wedges close this week on approach, the winner will convert 70% of those scoring opportunities. Some putts will be short, but most will rest in the eight to 15 foot range. Dropping all of those is the quickest way to win. Par 5s are great scoring chances but watch out for the great par 4 players. The last 10 winners have gained an average of seven strokes on the field playing the 4s.
Looking past the putter, and to take best advantage of your approach shots, you must play from the fairway. Length AND accuracy create a big advantage at CC of J. The best drivers in the field can separate just like the putters. Put those two skills together and you have the key to our betting card. The last five winners gained an average of 3.4 strokes on the field OTT. It plays a role getting to those four par 5s in two and on the 400+ yard par 4s. The closer you get, the better chance you have of making a sub-par score. Three of the last five years ended in a playoff. Winning that playoff on a 500-yard par 4 requires a great drive and birdie putt.
CC of Jackson is ranked in the top 10 for narrowest fairways on TOUR. Another solid reason why SG:OTT is key. Three of the last six winners lost strokes around the green. That doesn't mean short game does not matter. It just proves two things. First, with a winning score of 20 under par, players don't miss GIRs. Second, when they do, it is difficult to separate yourself with your around the green acumen. Skip the short game specialists and concentrate on the efficient flatstickers.
Last fall, we bet Davis Thompson, Cam Davis, and Taylor Pendrith a bunch. They all won this year, and we had two of the three when they did. I have taken a deep dive into the best players on these repeat venues for the past two fall runs. I also looked at who is playing the best since the US Open this summer. The conversation of those two data points gives us a couple of very good prospects for this fall again. Stick with the process and we will be prepared to end 2024 on a very high note.
2024 Sanderson Farms Championship: Outright Winners
J.J. Spaun (+3500)
One of the hottest players in this field is Spaun.
- In his last six events, Spaun is gaining over seven strokes total per start.
- Five of Spaun's last six starts were a top-26 finish or better.
- Spaun is the current best ball striker in this field. He ranks in the top five for SG:BS, Par 4s, APP, BoB%, Par 5s, and birdies gained.
Charley Hoffman (+6600)
"Where is Hoffman?!?!" - Right in the middle of the fairway. Check out my Monday Odds Drop article for Golf Digest.
- A brilliant ball striker throughout his career, Hoffman is top-20 in the field for OTT and putting and fifth in approach!
- Hoffman already lost in a playoff this year (WMPO), he's recently battle tested.
- I love his edge in par-5 scoring. Fourth in BoB%, and seventh in Birdies gained, Hoffman can score.
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