This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Valero Texas Open
Course: TPC San Antonio Oaks Course (7,438 yards, par 72)
Purse: $9,200,000
Winner: $1,656,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
Just one tournament remains before the first golf major of the year and one of the best sporting events in the world, The Masters. After Stephan Jaegar's win last week and Byeong Hun An notched a spot via the OWGR Top 50 that closed following the Houston Open, the Masters field is up to 88 players. There are a whole lot of players in the Valero Texas Open who will be hoping there will be 89 players in the field at Augusta by notching a victory in San Antonio. Two of the last four Texas Open champions were not exempt for the Masters and earned that coveted final spot.
One of those players was Corey Conners back in 2019 when he Monday qualified for the Texas Open and went on to win, at the time becoming the first Monday qualifier to win on the PGA Tour in nine years. Conners would earn a spot the following week at Augusta and his career has taken off from there. The Canadian was victories at TPC San Antonio once again last year becoming the 10th players in this event's storied history to win the Texas Open multiple times.
The Texas Open is one of the longest running events in golf dating back to the first tournament in 1922 won by Bob MacDonald. Over the years the Texas Open has been held on eight different golf courses. The TPC San Antonio Oaks Course has been the host since 2010. The Greg Norman design doesn't have many similarities to Augusta National, but it has shown the ability to really challenge players in a variety of ways if given the right conditions. Single digits under-par has won at TPC San Antonio in three of 13 years. Conners holds the scoring record in 2019 when he posted 20-under-par to win. Only two other players have reached 18-under after 72 holes (Charley Hoffman 2019, Jordan Spieth 2021).
Along with Texas Open champs like Conners and Spieth, there are a number of strong players looking to get some solid competitive reps heading into Augusta. 11 of the top 25 in the OWGR will tee it up in San Antonio including No. 2 ranked Rory McIlroy. The Northern Irishman is once again looking to complete the career grand slam at Augusta next week, but playing the week prior may take some pressure off of him and help clear his mind. The 2023 Champion Golfer of the Year, Brian Harman, will be back in action along with Max Homa, Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama and Collin Morikawa.
Another note to track this week is the Aon Next 10 and Aon Swing 5 to try to qualify for the next Signature Event the week after the Masters at the RBC Heritage. The Aon Next 10 will be completed following the Masters for the top 10 players in the standings who missed the top 50 in the FedExCup last season. The Aon Swing 5 standings started in Puerto Rico before going to the Valspar Championship, Houston Open and finally ending in San Antonio. Brice Garnett, Erik Barnes, Chandler Phillips, Alejandro Tosti and Billy Horschel hold those coveted five spots heading into the Texas Open and you know they want to get a chance to play for that $20 million purse in Hilton Head.
The Valero Texas Open also marks the only reshuffle of the 2024 season for DP World Tour, Korn Ferry Tour and Q-School graduates. There's been a lot of talk of how hard it has been for a number of KFT and Q-School grads to get into some of the early season events, so a couple good starts or two could go a long way into improving their reorder position and getting into as many fields as possible the second half of the season to try to both make the playoffs (top 70) and keep their PGA Tour card for 2025 (top 125).
The weather can be dodgy this time of year in Texas with those spring-time storms, but it looks as if we may get away with it this week. We should see a lot of sunshine during the first two rounds with temperatures reaching the low 80s. The weekend will be just a bit cooler with more clouds and the strongest winds coming on Saturday. The test will be on Sunday where we likely will see some rain at some point, but hopefully we can avoid any electricity and get the finish of the Texas Open in on Sunday and not have to run into Masters week at all. I would expect to see a winning score somewhere in the 12-to-16-under range given these conditions.
Recent Champions
2023 - Corey Conners (-15)
2022 - J.J. Spaun (-13)
2021 - Jordan Spieth (-18)
2020 - None
2019 - Corey Conners (-20)
2018 - Andrew Landry (-17)
2017 - Kevin Chappell (-12)
2016 - Charley Hoffman (-12)
2015 - Jimmy Walker (-11)
2014 - Steven Bowditch (-8)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- Par-4 Scoring
Champion's Profile
The Oaks Course is about the same yardage as Memorial Park was last week, but it is a par 72 instead of a par 70. There is only one par-4 at TPC San Antonio over 490 yards compared to five at Memorial Park. Because of that we typically see players of all distances able to challenge for the win even though there is a lot of room to spray it around for the bigger hitters. Par-4 scoring is usually not a stat I look at too often, but that's where most of the score will be made this week. This quartet of par-5s are some of the stingiest on Tour and the par-3s are no picnic either.
Iron play tends to tell the story at TPC San Antonio. Last year Conners was first in SG: Approach and first in GIR's for the week en route to his victory. Sam Stevens who finished a shot back was second in SG: Approach. While the greens are fairly large, there are a bunch of very distinct ridges which make distance control crucial. Poor iron play will lead directly into bogeys at this place, either by having a very tough bunker or chip shot to an elevated green, or having a very difficult two-putt by missing the ridge the hole is located on.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,400)
Matsuyama has been on a strong run going T22-Win-T12-T6 over his last four starts. His iron play and short game continue to lead the way. The nine-time PGA Tour winner ranks 38th in SG: Approach, 16th in GIR percentage and first in SG: Around-the-Green this season. Matsuyama ranks top-31 in par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring. He finished T15 last year at TPC San Antonio.
Corey Conners ($11,100)
Conners continues to be one of the most consistent ball strikers on Tour, having gained on approach in 12 straight events and off the tee in 24 straight. It's a big reason why the Canadian so rarely misses cuts having made his last 15 with 11 top-35 finishes in that stretch. Conners ranks second on the PGA Tour in GIR percentage and sixth in SG: Approach. His record at the Texas Open looks like this T26-Win-T14-T35-Win.
Alex Noren ($10,600)
Noren is coming off his third straight top-20 finish last week at the Houston Open. The 41-year-old is on a resurgence of play having not missed a cut in his last 12 starts. There isn't really a hole in Noren's game as he ranks top-60 in every strokes gained category. He is also top-10 in driving accuracy, GIR percentage and scrambling. Noren is second in bogey avoidance and 17th in par-4 scoring. His one start at the Oaks Course was a T15 last year.
The Middle Tier
Byeong Hun An ($10,400)
An kicks off a very strong middle tier with tremendous upside. Sure he missed his first cut of the season at THE PLAYERS in his last start, but that wasn't a course that suited his skillset. An had made his previous 13 cuts before that with five top-10s in that stretch. The 32-year-old ranks second on the PGA Tour in birdie average and ninth in par-4 scoring average. An bombs it off-the-tee, ranks top-20 in GIR percentage and proximity, and is a very solid 42nd in SG: Around-the-Green. He's finished top-10 in two of his last three starts at TPC San Antonio.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($9,700)
While he isn't the greatest driver, Bezuidenhout is very strong everywhere else and has racked up five top-10s and nine top-25s in his last 14 starts. The South African is inside the top-10 in par-4 scoring average largely because of his iron play in which he ranks 11th in SG: Approach and second in proximity. He is also 22nd in scrambling and 17th in SG: Putting. Bezuidenhout can find birdies in bunches when he's on, and he's be on a lot recently.
Austin Eckroat ($9,000)
Eckroat makes for a nice play here. He didn't get to take any time off following his first PGA Tour win at PGA National with a Signature Event at THE PLAYERS the next two weeks. Now refreshed following two weeks off, Eckroat will look to get prepared for his first Masters in the best way possible, contending in San Antonio. He has gained over 20 strokes on approach alone in his last four starts and that will play extremely well on this course.
The Long Shots
Chandler Phillips ($8,400)
Phillips is one of the best iron players you will find in this range. He ranks 12th on Tour in SG: Approach, second in proximity 125-150 yards and sixth in proximity 150-175 yards. Both of those yardage ranges will see a lot of approach shots on this course. Phillips is also a very solid 46th in scrambling and 57th in SG: Putting this season. The KFT rookie has already logged three top-25s this season, including a T3 at the Valspar Championship a couple weeks ago.
Charley Hoffman ($8,300)
No matter how he is playing coming in, Hoffman has to make it into one of your lineups when we come to TPC San Antonio. He is 12-for-13 here in his career with five top-3 finishes and nine top-15 finishes. Hoffman has always been a tremendous iron player and that's why he has found so much success here. He hasn't done much outside of the playoff loss at the Phoenix Open, but he is still gaining strokes on the season in approach, around-the-green and putting.
Joel Dahmen ($7,700)
After a tough season last year, Dahmen has found his swing and emerged as an elite iron player. The 36-year-old ranks seventh in SG: Approach, 33rd in GIR percentage and first in proximity to the hole this season. The putter is the real question mark with Dahmen, but he has gained strokes on the greens at TPC San Antonio in three of his four trips here. He has also gained around the greens in four of his last five starts overall.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
While there are big names near the top, some of them like McIlroy ($12,100), Spieth ($11,600) and Morikawa ($10,900) are not playing their best golf right now. I would be more inclined to shift to what I believe to be a very strong lower $10K and $9K range. Some other names not mentioned above to consider would be Harris English ($10,100), Russell Henley ($10,000), Akshay Bhatia ($9,800) and Erik van Rooyen ($9,400).
One other thing to keep in mind this week is that after a pretty steady Thursday, Friday afternoon is projected to bring some higher wind gusts. If you're deciding between two players, I would lean towards taking the one who has a late/early tee time. Above all else, iron play will reign supreme at TPC San Antonio and the more approach specialists you can get in a lineup the better.
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