This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $11M
Winner's Share: $1.98M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Chiba, Japan
Course: Narashino Country Club
Yardage: 7,079
Par: 70
2021 Champion: Hideki Matsuyama
Tournament Preview
The PGA Tour's presence in Asia is critical to the Tour's goals to grow the game and, frankly, grow the Tour. With LIV Golf now trying to make inroads on the worldwide golf scene, those goals are more important and more challenging than ever. It is under that backdrop that the Tour returns to the Far East this week, but just for one tournament. Whereas there used to be a two- or even three-week Asian Swing, it is just Japan again for the second year in a row. Next week's event will again be played in the United States, at Congaree in South Carolina, which explains why the official name of the tournament this year is "THE CJ CUP in South Carolina."
This will be the fourth year of the ZOZO Championship and its third iteration in Japan. In the inaugural event in 2019 and again last year, the tournament was played at Narashino Country Club; there was a pandemic-induced stopover in Vegas in 2020. Tiger Woods won the first ZOZO for what remains his 82nd and final PGA Tour victory. That was quite an introduction for the Tour in its first-ever tournament in Japan, and the second one wasn't too shabby either. The country's pride and joy of men's golf, Hideki Matsuyama, made a triumphant return to his homeland as a Masters champion, then went out and won the ZOZO one year ago.
Matsuyama heads a strong Asian contingent in this year's 78-man, no-cut field. South Korean sensation Tom Kim, coming off his second PGA Tour victory last week at the Shriners, is set for his ZOZO debut. There's also Xander Schauffele, who has Japanese heritage and won the Olympic gold medal in Tokyo last year. Collin Morikawa, of Chinese-Japanese descent, is back, as is Korea's Sungjae Im. Other names of note include Rickie Fowler, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Young, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Mito Pereira.
The ZOZO is co-sponsored by the PGA and Japan Tours and is contracted to run at least through 2025. In 2019, it was the second leg of what was then a three-stop Asian Swing. The field has strict parameters: the top 60 available from last season's FedEx top 125; the winner of the BMW Japan Golf Tour Championship (Kazuki Higa); the top eight available from the 2022 JGT money list; and nine sponsor's invites, of which Fowler is one. Most of them are Japanese players, and there more than a dozen in the field.
The 36-hole Narashino club not far from Tokyo opened in 1976. At about 7,100 yards, the course is short, even at a par-70. It's not a stock 70 -- there are five par-3s and three par-5s. There are some really short holes and some really long ones, not much in between. The par-3s are collectively short, with only one over 200 yards. The 10 par-4s are either less than 425 yards or more than 485. The par-5s are 587, 608 and the 562-yard 18th, meaning there is the potential for drama late on Sunday. There is water on four holes, but that's not enough of a defense for today's pro, so what other defenses are there? The fairways are narrow and tree-lined with dips and elevations, and there are dog legs. There is funky funky Zoysiagrass rough, and it's hard to control the ball coming out, so it's best to not be in it. Golfers will use driver only about half the time.
Each hole has two greens, which is customary in Japan. One set in bentgrass at Narashino, the other bermuda, and they do this in Japan to allow for seasonal changes. This week the golfers will use the bent greens and not rotate, other on No. 4. If a ball lands on the other green, the golfer will get a free drop.
In 2019, Woods shot a 19-under 261 by racking up a whopping 27 birdies. Matsuyama was three back and it was three more to Rory McIlroy and Im. Coincidentally or not, three days before that tournament, Woods, Matsuyama and McIlroy all played in a skins game at Narashino, a course unfamiliar to most of the field. The fourth skins-game guy, Jason Day, tied for 22nd. Fifteen guys in the this field have played both Narashino editions of the ZOZO and 36 are back from last year. Of course, the Japanese players likely are much more familiar with this course.
Weather-wise, the forecast is calling for a 99 percent chance of rain on Thursday and showers on Friday morning before drying out for the weekend. Otherwise, high temperatures will be warming into the mid-70s on the weekend with light to moderate wind. With so few players in the field, setting lineups based on the rain seems pointless. Just go with your guys.
Important Lineup Note: We're in Japan. Lineups lock at 7:50 PM ET Wednesday.
Key Stats to Winning at Narashino CC
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Driving Accuracy/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting/Putting Average
Past Champions
2021 - Hideki Matsuyama
2020 - Patrick Cantlay (Sherwood CC)
2019 - Tiger Woods
Champion's Profile
There was no data -- none -- recorded from last year's tournament, so we have just one year of course history. That was 2019, and even that was limited, with no ShotLink data. Here's how it went: Woods (64-64-66-67) finished at 19-under. He had many birdies, 27, but also quite a few bogeys for the winner of a birdie-fest, eight. He ranked seventh in driving accuracy, third in greens in regulation, 26th in scrambling and first in putting average (putts per GIR). Matsuyama displayed a similar skill set: sixth in GIR, 19th in scrambling, second (!) in putting average. It's tough for Matsuyama to shoot two 65s and two 67s and not come close, but that speaks to how well Woods played that week. Woods did most of his damage on the front nine, opening with a sizzling 29 and continuing 33-31-32. McIlroy, who tied for third, said Narashino reminded him of Chapultepec, where the old WGC-Mexico had been played. Last year, the course was the 11th hardest on the PGA Tour and Matsuyama won at 15-under. The over/under on the winning score this week on golfodds.com was set at 264.5 -- 15.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Hideki Matsuyama - $10,400 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1400)
We understand how Schauffele is priced $400 above Matsuyama, but the distinct difference in odds seems off. All the pressure of having to perform in your golf-crazed home country has not been an issue for Matsuyama, even with the added pressure of returning home last time as a Masters champion. Matsuyama has not played his best over the past few months, but this is his fifth major. He'll be ready.
Sungjae Im - $10,000 (+900)
Im is Korean, so this week does not have the same meaning to him as it does to Matsuyama. But he is Asian, so it still matters a lot. Besides, it's a great fit, a course where he finished third behind Tiger and Matsuyama in 2019. Unlike Matsuyama, Im arrives playing some stellar golf, with three runners-up in his past six starts and a solo seventh last week at the Shriners.
Tom Kim - $9,700 (+1400)
In light of what's been going on the past two months, how can Kim be fifth on the DK board? If you're looking for value, and we all are, this is value. Sure, it's easy to think that Kim can't win a second week in a row. But great players do the unimaginable, and Kim has all the makings of greatness. Besides, the weakest part of his game is length, and that won't be an issue for him on this short track.
Tier 2 Values
Tommy Fleetwood - $9,200 (+3500)
Fleetwood plays his best golf outside the United States. "Why is that?" is a question for another day. More importantly, Fleetwood knows the importance of keeping the ball in the fairway at Narashino, how if you play from the funky Zoysiagrass rough it's hard to control the ball. Fleetwood was seventh here last year and 22nd in 2019. He's also coming off his best putting season on the PGA Tour, one in which he ranked 26th.
Keegan Bradley - $8,900 (+3500)
As we noted in the Sanderson Farms recap a couple of weeks back when Bradley finished T5, he putted far better last year than previously and has kept it going early on this season. In every other metric, Bradley is very good and a great fit for Narashino, as evidenced by his T7 finish there last year and T13 in 2019.
Cam Davis - $8,500 (+4000)
Davis did not have the post-Presidents Cup boost at the Shriners that some of his International teammates did -- Pereira and Si Woo Kim, to name two -- but as we've detailed before, Davis has had most of his best weeks on shorter tracks, and Narashino definitely qualifies. When Davis takes just a little bit off the gas from the tee, the rest of his game aligns nicely.
Tier 3 Values
Andrew Putnam - $7,600 (+4000)
Putnam has been playing some darn good golf of late, making seven straight cuts (we know this is a no-cut event). He's coming off a T12 at the Shriners and was outstanding in the first two playoff events not too long ago (T5, T23). Putnam has played the ZOZO at Narashino both times -- he's done nothing better than T39, but he nw has eight competitive rounds to glean from and arrives playing far better than at the previous ZOZOs. He's ranked top-30 in both GIR and putting so far in 2022-23.
Aaron Rai - $7,500 (+7000)
The Englishman had a decent rookie season on the PGA Tour but tailed off toward the finish. He's shown signs of a reversal of late, tying for fifth at the Italian Open last month before a T20 last week at the Shriners. Rai was among the most accurate hitters on the PGA Tour last season, ranking top-25 in both fairways hit and greens in regulation. This will be his ZOZO debut.
Russell Knox - $7,000 (+13000)
The Scotsman arrives for his first go-round at Narashino with a great skill set for the course and on a bit of a roll. Knox did miss the Shriners cut last week but had a pair of top-25s in the first two events of the season, and another late last season at the Wyndham. He's a short hitter who won't be penalized for that this week. Knox's accuracy is top-notch: 19th in fairways hit last season and an elite fourth in greens in regulation.
Long-Shot Values
Adam Schenk - $6,900 (+13000)
We're not sure how Schenk qualified for both ZOZOs in Japan (2019 was a long time ago), but he finished 22nd the first time and then 28th last year. He's coming off a tie for 12th last week at the Shriners, his best result since May. Schenk is not normally very accurate off the tee or from the fairway, but he has been in the early going this season. Either way, sometimes a course just fits a guy's eye.
Hayden Buckley - $6,800 (+13000)
Buckley is ranked fourth on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee in the early going and was 13th for last season. Much of that is attributed to being very accurate with driver in hand (ranked 15th this season, 22nd last season). He's also got some great GIR numbers. Buckley is coming off top-20s in his past two starts at the Shriners and Sanderson Farms. This will be his ZOZO debut.
Yuto Katsuragawa - $6,300 (+13000)
Down here in sub-$6500 territory, with so many little-known Japanese in the field, it's a bit of a crapshoot. Katsuragawa is coming off a runner-up and a solo third in his past two starts on the Japan Tour to rise to the precipice of the top-100 in the world rankings at No. 102. We know the level of competition those results came in is not what he'll experience this week. But Katsuragawa also made the cut at the Open Championship last summer in tying for 47th. He was also co-runner-up at the Singapore Open on the Asian Tour early in 2022. The other co-runner-up? Tom Kim.
