This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE GENESIS INVITATIONAL
Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $3.6M
FedEx Cup Points: 700 to the Winner
Location: Pacific Palisades, Calif.
Course: Riviera Country Club
Yardage: 7,322
Par: 71
2023 champion: Jon Rahm
Tournament Preview
After two weeks that have almost gone off the rails for the PGA Tour, their savior has arrived just in the nick of time. Which is another way of saying: Tiger Woods is back!
Woods returns to a Tour event for the first time since withdrawing from the Masters 10 months ago. We saw him late last year at the Hero World Challenge and two weeks later with son Charlie at the PNC Challenge. He looked better than he had in years, certainly since his auto accident that occurred right after the 2021 Genesis Invitational.
This will be the start of what Woods hopes will be a once-a-month 2024 schedule to include THE PLAYERS Championship and the four majors. He hasn't played six tournaments in a year since he played nine in 2020. So, we shall see.
But for now, all looks good. Woods also looked quite good at the 2023 Genesis in which he opened with a 2-under 69, followed by 74-67-73 to end up tied for 45th. Two months later, he withdrew from the weather-plagued Masters after making the cut. At that point, he had another surgery on his right ankle, sidelining him for the summer. Woods then finished 18th of 20 at the Hero.
Woods technically got into his own tournament -- he is the official host and it benefits his foundation -- on a sponsor invite. There are four such invites for this, the third of eight Signature Events on the season. The three others are two-time Riviera winner Adam Scott, Will Zalatoris and Gary Woodland. At Woods' insistence, the 70-man field will have a cut, as will Arnold Palmer and Jack Nicklaus' upcoming Signature Events. But the cut is weird, and possibly won't be a cut at all. The top-50 and ties make the 36-hole cut, but so does anyone within 10 shots of the lead. It's possible that that's everyone.
This week as in most weeks, "everyone" starts with Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and on and on. One top guy who won't be here, though, is last year's champion, Jon Rahm. In fact, the past two champions and six of the past 10 are now LIV guys, with Joaquin Niemann having won here in 2022. Don't worry, what are the chances of three in a row going to LIV? One way to ensure that won't happen is for Woods to win this week.
And what a monumental moment that would be.
But for the Tour, four uninterrupted days of golf concluding with a stacked leaderboard would be plenty fine after the past two weeks. Pebble Beach was reduced to 54 holes after the weather proved to be too mighty. Then last week, rain and cold weather disrupted the WM Phoenix Open, though they managed to get in all four rounds. The weather should be far better this week, though not perfect, especially for Woods. More on that in a minute.
The Genesis is one of the grand old tournaments on Tour, dating way back to when the automobile was just coming into vogue. The first edition of the Los Angeles Open was played in 1926 at Los Angeles Country Club, site of last year's U.S. Open. This will be the 98th go-round, and it's been played every year but 1943. Even though showbiz-laden Riviera has been by far the most prominent track in the tournament's history -- this will be its 61st time hosting -- there actually have been 11 different courses in play through the years, including three munis that anyone can still play today: Rancho Park, Brookside and Griffith Park's Wilson course.
Riviera can be a brutally tough track -- the winning score often is close to single digits. Last year, though, Rahm won at 17-under and two years ago, Niemann won with the surprising score of 19-under, which hadn't been reached since Lanny Wadkins set the tournament record of 20-under in 1985.
This is one of the few stops on Tour with no water. Instead, tight, tree-lined fairways, penal rough, some very long holes, many undulations and large poa greens (averaging 7,500 square feet) force the golfers to use all the clubs in their bag. Riviera annually is among the toughest fairways and greens to hit, usually under 60 percent for both. Every year at this time we hear about the Riviera fairways and rough sodded with kikuyugrass, a gnarly, club-twisting beast that's a rarity on Tour. Kikuyu is tough to navigate without familiarity, and that's why course knowledge takes on added importance this week. Course knowledge comes with playing the course a lot, and that will be a key consideration in our DraftKings picks.
Riviera -- one of two tracks nicknamed "Hogan's Alley" for Ben Hogan, Colonial being the other -- features six par-4s in excess of 450 yards, while two of the three par-5s surpass 580 and there's a par-3 over 230. Nine of the 11 par-4s played over par last year, notably the 479-yard 12th and 487-yard 15th, usually the two hardest holes on the course. But a pair of shorter holes are what Riviera is known for. There's the 199-yard sixth with a bunker in the middle of the green and the risk/reward 315-yard 10th, a hole that some call the best drivable par-4 in golf. After years of some guys laying up and others going for the green, virtually every player in the field now goes for it. The round comes to a close at the brutish, uphill par-4, 475-yard 18th with the pint-size, kidney-shaped green.
One more interesting caveat about Riviera: It has some small greens and some enormous greens. The common denominator is that putting inside 10 feet is harder than just about anywhere else on Tour, thanks in large part to the poa surfaces that get bumpy and hard to read as the day goes on. The golfers make barely 50 percent of their putts from 5-10 feet, an astoundingly low number.
Okay, let's talk lineups: It's been a very wet winter in LA, which could put some of the shorter hitters at a bigger disadvantage than usual. Because there are so many big names and such a small field, some very good golfers have attractive prices. But with more than 60 percent of the field making the cut, there's a strong argument to get two or even three big names into your lineup and fill it with two or three $6000s. Should you play Woods? Well, he's rarely played well here, though last year he was bordering the top-25 through 54 holes. Riviera is not a super hard course to walk, fairly flat other than the downhill first hole and the uphill 18th, and Woods looked pretty good at the Hero across 72 flat holes.
As for the weather, it will be dry -- at least until Sunday, according to the forecast. It won't be especially warm, with temperatures topping out in the mid-60s and mornings being in the 50s. But with 70 guys, they don't have to start too early. Wind will be minimal. All in all, it would be better for all of Woods' surgically repaired parts to be in hotter weather, but it won't be very cold, either.
Historical L.A. Open factoids: The names who have won it read like a wing in the Golf Hall of Fame: Hogan, Snead, Nelson, Palmer, Casper, Irwin, Miller, Watson (Tom and Bubba), Couples, Faldo, Els, Mickelson, DJ and Rahm. Interestingly, two names aren't there: The aforementioned Woods and Nicklaus.
Future Riviera factoids: The course will play host to the 2026 U.S. Women's Open and the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.
Key Stats to Winning at Riviera
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee -- both distance and accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green/SG: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 150 yards
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Putting - Inside 10 feet
• Par-4 Efficiency 450-500 yards
Past Champions
2023 - Jon Rahm
2022 - Joaquin Niemann
2021 - Max Homa
2020 - Adam Scott
2019 - J.B. Holmes
2018 - Bubba Watson
2017 - Dustin Johnson
2016 - Bubba Watson
2015 - James Hahn
2014 - Bubba Watson
Champion's Profile
All you have to do is look at the past 10 winners to see how it helps to be long here. Three Watsons, a Rahm, a DJ, a Niemann, a Holmes and a Scott paint a pretty definitive picture, and Homa isn't exactly short. Some of them have taken their foot off the gas to improve fairway accuracy, but not Rahm. He ranked sixth in driving distance, only 63rd in fairways hit, but still was second in greens in regulation and first in SG: Approach. He also ranked 12th in SG: Putting, which was good enough to win by two strokes over Homa, who led the field in SG: Putting.
Most of the other top finishers didn't even crack the top-20 in putting. Instead, strong tee-to-green play correlated to a high position on the leaderboard. In the last decade, Riviera has proved to be either first, second or third hardest on Tour putting inside of 10 feet. The poa greens are tricky, especially later in the day as they get bumpier.
Every champion this century has played the tournament at least twice previously, indicating the importance of course knowledge, and all but three of the past 38 winners have been at least 29 years old. Ernie Els had played Riviera only once before winning in 1999. Charles Howell III was 27 when he won in 2007 and Scott was 24 in 2005, an unofficial victory awarded after 36 holes when the rain simply wouldn't stop. Niemann was 23. The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is 268.5 - 15.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Viktor Hovland - $10,000 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1400)
We are bypassing the top three guys on the DK board -- Scheffler, McIlroy and Xander Schauffele. Collectively, they've never had a podium finish and they've each played the tournament at least five times. Hovland also doesn't have a top-3 here, but he does have a T4 and T5, in just three starts, and he's a cheaper option. Hovland got those top-5s in 2021 and '22, when his wedge play was unsightly. He tied for 20th last year. Hovland's wedge play is still statistically among the worst in the field, but he excels off the tee and on long par-4s, and is among the better short putters in the field.
Max Homa - $9,800 (+1800)
The Southern California native will be a popular pick. Homa was runner-up last year, won it all in 2021 and has top-10s the past four years. As mentioned above, he led the field last year in SG: Putting. Homa also is among the best in this field playing long par-4s. He missed the cut last week at Phoenix, but that means nothing now.
Collin Morikawa - $9,500 (+1600)
With Morikawa's strengths -- off the tee, approach, long par-4s -- we will overlook that he is one of the worst putters in this field -- worse than even Scheffler. But he's finished sixth and second here the past two years, after not cracking the top 25 in his first two Riviera starts. It sure seems Morikawa has developed some course knowledge through experience.
Tier 2 Values
Patrick Cantlay - $9,300 (+1800)
This was a pleasant surprise, seeing both Cantlay and Thomas closer to the $8,000s than $10,000. Cantlay, the former UCLA product, finished fourth here last year and third a few years back. He ranks second in our model, putting out outstanding numbers in just about every stat and being well above average in all of them. The small concern is that Cantlay doesn't have a top-10 in four starts so far this year, though he has finished 11th (last week) and 12th.
Justin Thomas - $9,100 (+1600)
Thomas plays here every year and, being best buds with Woods, we know he takes this week extra seriously. He's had three top-10s through the years, including runner-up in 2019, and was even T20 last year amid all this troubles. Now, Thomas is playing far better, especially tee-to-green. His putting is still a trouble spot, but it's not that bad from inside 10 feet. And, combined with the rest of his game and his very cheap price, this was an easy call.
Adam Scott - $8,200 (+2800)
This was a tough call here with Scott or Sahith Theegala ($8600). Theegala is an outstanding putter, which could make up for his inaccuracies off the tee and from the fairway, but ultimately we went with Scott's more balanced game -- with a savings of $400. Scott has won twice here, though only once officially and once recently (2020). He's also been a runner-up and was fourth just two years ago. Scott is coming off a very good week at Phoenix, another course where ball-striking is paramount. But so is Theegala. It's such a toss-up between the two, with Scott ranking 13th in our model and Theegala 14th.
Tier 3 Values
Will Zalatoris - $7,900 (+5000)
Zalatoris showed last time out how far he's come in such a short period following his return from back surgery. He tied for 13th at uber-long and kikuyu-laden Torrey Pines. Of course, this will be a far tougher field, but Zalatoris has played Riviera well, even in his first go-round three years ago. He tied for 15th in 2021, then was 26th two years ago and T4 last year. Zalatoris will need to be dialed in with his irons, because his putting is still, um, not good.
J.T. Poston - $7,800 (+4500)
Poston has missed the cut here two years running and didn't finish in the top-25 in the three years before that. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. But our model puts him in the top-25. Here's why: Poston's terrific play so far this year shows a well-rounded golfer who is at least decent in every strokes-gained metric. And since Riviera requires a balanced repertoire, we think Poston can at least repeat his best finish here, which was T17 in his 2017 debut.
Harris English - $7,000 (+9000)
English has quietly racked up three top-20s in the early going. He doesn't really stand out, but he's ranked 40th in the world for a reason. English does just about everything pretty well, which is a good characteristic to have this week. His iron play has been a bit off, though it was slightly better last week at Phoenix (T17). English is among the better short putters in this field, which helped him tie for 12th here last year in his first visit in four years.
Long-Shot Values
Kurt Kitayama - $6,900 (+6500)
We wrote in last week's recap how Kitayama is hard to back because he's so inconsistent. With so many players making the cut, this is a good week to have faith in him. Besides, Kitayama is coming off a tie for eighth at Phoenix, his second top-25 already this season. His early stats show a balanced game except on the greens, where he's about average. Kitayama missed the cut at his Riviera debut a year ago. But remember, he won on another long, tough track with an elite field at Bay Hill less than a year ago.
Emiliano Grillo - $6,900 (+9000)
The hallmark of Grillo's game, iron play, has been leaking oil this season. And still, he arrives with four straight top-25s, including T20 at Torrey Pines. A big reason has been Grillo's putting -- he's ranked 24th on Tour. Our model shows a player strong off the tee and excellent on the long par-4s. Grillo's best at Riviera was a tie for 21st two years ago.
Tiger Woods - $6,500 (+13000)
There's not a lot of data to support this pick. Hardly any, in fact. But this pick is two-fold, maybe three. Even though we endorsed adding guys in the $6000s in your lineup, there aren't a whole lot that we like. But we know a bunch will make the cut. Woods has never really contended at Riviera, but he did tie for 15th five years ago before his accident. And he was bordering on a top-25 last year until Sunday. The past few years have been more about health and being able to walk rather than being able to play golf. And now Woods is his healthiest in years. He just introduced a new clothing line with TaylorMade called Sun Day Red. Woods very much wants to be around on Sunday to wear it.
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