2024 Sanderson Farms Championship Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on October 2, 2024

Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Preview

Following an exciting week of team golf north of the border, the PGA Tour returns with the second of eight events of the FedExCup Fall as it heads to Jackson, Mississippi, for the annual Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson. The field is much more wide open than a typical Tour event as 20-year-old Nick Dunlap is the favorite way down at 20-1. This is a place where we've seen surprising winners, with eight of the last 10 champions having 66-1 or longer odds. Last year, Luke List (50-1 odds) captured his second Tour victory with a birdie on the first playoff hole over Ludvig Aberg, Ben Griffin, Henrik Norlander and Scott Stallings.

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Course Overview

Par 72, 7,461 yards

These are the average rankings of the event champions over the last five years:

SG: Off-the-Tee: 16.8
SG: Approach: 15.8
SG: Around-the-Green: 26.4
SG: Putting: 22.2
SG: Tee-to-Green: 5.8
Driving Distance: 10.6
Driving Accuracy: 32.2

Anytime you see a course at around 7,500 yards, even with four par-5s, length is the first thing that comes to mind. The stats above bear that out as we can see that distance is at much more a premium than accuracy. Off the tee, players are faced with narrow and tree-lined fairways but minimal rough and water in play on only one driving hole will lead to players pulling driver often. SG: Tee-to-Green stands out as the key metric, with the winner leading the field in the category in two of the last four years. Approach play tends to favor those that are good with their wedges as well as from 250+ to take advantage of the par-5s, with not a lot of mid-iron shots. Around the green play doesn't tend to be a big factor here as players hit greens at a high rate and when they don't, are faced with pretty straightforward chip shots.

Jackson Five

The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at the Country Club of Jackson since 2019:

Higgo has shown a fondness for the venue in his two trips, finishing one shot out of a playoff in his debut here and then followed it up with a respectable T16 last year. Something will have to give between his track record at the event and his current form, as he enters having missed eight of his last 11 cuts. Another player who has shown good form here is Pan with three top-15s over his last four appearances. He's been incredibly consistent in those three tournaments, shooting in the 60s in 11-of-12 rounds. Interestingly, he's withdrawn after the first round in each of his last two tournaments with neck and back injuries. If healthy, he showed what he was capable of with a T2 at the John Deere Classic in July.

Best Ball-Strikers

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.

Kim will be making his first appearance at the event as a Tour rookie, but with his current form from tee to green being excellent, he should be up for the challenge. He's stood out with his iron play where he ranks 21st in SG: Approach this year and that's helped him post three top-15s over his last six starts. Meanwhile, Norlander is the lone player to appear on both lists with a combination of recent form and course history. The veteran has an impressive three top-5s over his last four trips to Mississippi, highlighted by last year's playoff loss. He's currently battling for his Tour card at 131st in the FedExCup Standings, and he had a solid summer with three top-25s in July and a top-10 on the DP World Tour last month.

Sanderson Farms Championship Bets: Outright Picks

J.J. Spaun (30-1)

We can see from the stats above that Spaun's tee to green form is one of the best in the field, which has led to seven consecutive made cuts and a pair of top-10s over his last three starts. Notably, he's gained over a shot per round on approach in four of his last six tournaments.

Matthew McCarty (40-1)

McCarty will be making his first PGA Tour start of the year after getting an in-season promotion for winning three times on the Korn Ferry Tour. It's a big ask to win right away, but in a year where the up-and-comers have played so well, I wouldn't put it past him.

Matt Kuchar (55-1)

Speaking of players that are in good form, Kuchar finished two back at the 3M, followed it up by holding the 36-hole lead at the Wyndham and then posted a top-15 in his last start in Napa. Kuchar doesn't typically play much this time of year but had two top-10s in three fall events last year.

Sanderson Farms Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Nick Hardy (6-1)

Hardy's length makes him a nice course fit for Jackson CC and his track record backs it – 3-for-3 on made cuts with a T5 two years ago in which he led the field in SG: Approach. His short game has really let him down this year but the iron play remains strong.

Jacob Bridgeman (13-2)

Bridgeman is battling for his card at 123rd in the standings, so every event will be important for him this fall. His biggest weakness is that he's sporadic with driver, but that's not a huge detriment here. He's posted top-20s in two of his last three starts.

Carson Young (10-1)

Young's ball striking numbers have been solid this year: 26th in SG: Off-the-Tee, seventh in driving accuracy and 38th in greens in regulation. I like the value here as a result. He has a couple top-10s this year, most recently at the John Deere in July.

Sanderson Farms Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Sam Stevens (+100) over Adam Svensson

I'll take Stevens as the slight underdog in this H2H as I view him as the much better course fit being the much longer driver of the two. Stevens is also great at taking advantage of the par-5s, where he ranks ninth in birdie or better percentage. Svensson only has five top-25s all year and is heavily reliant on a hot putter.

Cameron Champ (+100) over Taylor Moore

Sticking with the theme of long hitters, we know Champ can hammer it off the tee. The 2018 event champion is gaining a whopping 1.68 strokes off the tee per round over 12 career rounds in Jackson. Moore is in mediocre form with only one top-50 finish over his last five starts, making him an easy fade as the favorite here.

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