As the top-tier running backs come off the board in 2025 fantasy drafts, drafters are faced with a critical decision with the tiers that follow. We broke down the second tier and the third tier in July; however, with the final waves of drafts taking place this weekend and big decisions looming, we wanted to take another look at some critical player vs. player choices you may need to make.
Who wins the 2025 fantasy football ADP battle and who should you draft: Christian McCaffrey or Bucky Irving?
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Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (RB5)
Christian McCaffrey's 2024 was derailed by injury. Coming off an Achilles injury, McCaffrey did not make his season debut until Week 10. He struggled thereafter before suffering a knee injury Week 13, and was shut down for the season.
He ranked in the 30th percentile in yards after contact, but that can be reasonably chalked up to the Achilles injury, and despite being in his eighth season, McCaffrey has averaged just 168 carries per year, which perhaps will preserve him more than expected at age 29.
The 49ers have made it clear that McCaffrey will remain the focal point of the offense this season. Offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak said the team plans to "get him the ball as much as we can."
When healthy, McCaffrey is unrivaled. He finished as the PPR RB1 or RB2 in each of his last four healthy seasons. No running back has matched that level of dominance.
Still, three injury-plagued years in the last five seasons make him a high-risk, high-reward pick. His top-5 ADP demands perfection, and that's a tall order given the recent durability record.
The bottom line: McCaffrey has unmatched upside, but the injury risk is undeniable. If you're drafting him, it's a bet on health. For risk-tolerant managers, he's worth the gamble.
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (RB9)
Bucky Irving exploded late in 2024, averaging 19 carries and more than 13.3 PPR points in each of his final eight full games. He racked up 1,132 rushing yards and showed elite efficiency across the board, ranking 88th percentile in broken tackles, 96th percentile in yards after contact and 93rd percentile in yards after the catch after taking over receiving-back duty midseason.
His breakout was aided by ideal conditions — a favorable offensive scheme and an uptick in opportunity after Rachaad White faded. With offensive coordinator Liam Coen no longer in Tampa Bay, it's possible the Buccaneers' offense takes a step back. A regression in scheme or usage could limit Irving's ability to live up to his RB9 NFL fantasy ADP.
Still, if Irving's second-half surge was a true reflection of his talent, he could make this ADP look like a steal. His all-around skill set and potential three-down role give him plenty of paths to smash expectations.
The bottom line: Irving is worth drafting at RB9 if you believe his breakout was real. But with an uncertain scheme or guaranteed volume, he's more volatile than his ADP suggests.
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Final Thoughts on ADP Fantasy Football RB Values
McCaffrey has the best track record and the higher ceiling, but you're betting against recent history with his health and that is why some don't rate him as highly. Irving is the rising star with elite metrics and explosive upside, but coaching turnover could create volatility.
If you want the home-run swing, McCaffrey still has the best ceiling in fantasy football.
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