This article is part of our DFS Tournament Guide series.
This guide focuses strictly on the main slate of Sunday afternoon games, with recommendations meant to be used for large-field, GPP tournaments. Player prices will only be mentioned for the two largest DFS sites, though much of what's discussed can be applied throughout the industry.
Point-Per-Dollar Value
Variance and low ownership are desirable in large DFS tournaments, but we still need a few building-block players that are strong bets to outperform their price tags even if they don't have the highest ceilings and/or are likely to be popular plays. We'll also want to keep a close eye on injury situations with potential to create value for teammates (this is covered at the bottom of the page).
RB Matt Breida, SF (at TB), ($5,700 DK; $6,400 FD)
Tied for the league lead with eight carries of 20-plus yards, Breida would be oft-discussed as one of the breakout stars of the 2018 campaign if not for a slew of injuries that have caused the Niners to limit his workload. Finally absent from the injury report ahead of a Week 10 game against the Giants, the second-year back responded with season-high marks for snaps (44), carries (17) and targets (four) en route to a 17-101-1 rushing line and 3-31-1 receiving line. Breida ranks fourth among 50 qualified rushers with 5.6 yards per carry, and his rate of one 20-plus gain for every 14.1 totes is unmatched. Coming out of a bye week and into a dream matchup, Breida has a nice opportunity to combine his explosive running with more consistent involvement in the passing game, as Alfred Morris (3.4 YPC) and fullback Kyle Juszczyk are the only other players getting backfield snaps. Tampa Bay has surrendered a league-high 17 touchdowns to running backs, including three multi-score performances (Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon) within the past four games.
Passing Stacks
Seahawks at Panthers
These franchises both have a reputation for relying on defense, but the 2018 matchup gives us one team that's thoroughly mediocre (Seattle) and one that's prone to shootouts (Carolina). Long story short… these aren't the Seahawks or Panthers of recent years, so don't be surprised if the game scooches past its over/under of 46.5 — a number that lands right in the middle of Sunday's 10-game slate.
Russell Wilson ($5,600 DK; $7,700 FD) and Cam Newton ($6,200 DK; $8,600 FD) both offer upside in nearly any matchup thanks to their rushing ability and touchdown production, but I lean toward paying up for the latter because of his huge advantage in volume — an extra 5.1 pass attempts and 3.9 rush attempts per game. It also doesn't help that Doug Baldwin (groin) is a game-time decision, potentially leaving Wilson without his best receiver.
On the Carolina side we have Devin Funchess (back) listed as doubtful and Torrey Smith (knee) questionable, thus ensuring D.J. Moore ($4,600 DK; $5,800 FD) has a regular spot in the offense. We can also add Greg Olsen ($4,400 DK; $6,500 FD) to any Newton stack on DraftKings, with Curtis Samuel ($3,800 DK; $5,300 FD) providing a third option if Smith ends up inactive.
I head into the weekend with Newton-Moore-Olsen as my stack of choice, with an open mind to adding Tyler Lockett ($5,200 DK; $6,300 FD) or David Moore ($3,700 DK; $5,800 FD) if Baldwin doesn't play.
49ers at Buccaneers
Tampa Bay seems to show up in this section every week, combining a quick-strike offense (6.7 yards per play, 4th in NFL) with an incompetent defense (6.5 YPP, 31st). We've already discussed Breida as an elite dollar-for-dollar option at running back, with enough potential as a receiving threat to warrant inclusion in Bucs-49ers passing stacks.
While the pricing on DraftKings isn't overly generous, FanDuel is practically begging us to use either Jameis Winston ($6,000 DK; $7,500 FD) or Nick Mullens ($5,400 DK; $6,000 FD) at quarterback. A FanDuel stack featuring Mullens, Breida, Marquise Goodwin ($5,600 DK; $5,000 FD) and Cameron Brate ($3,600 DK; $4,400 FD) lets us to do whatever we want with the rest of the lineup without sacrificing much in terms of ceiling.
Brate's price isn't nearly as favorable on DraftKings, but he's still a top option at tight end with O.J. Howard (ankle) out for the season. Howard's absence could also free up a bit more work for Chris Godwin ($4,100 DK; $5,500 FD), who is tied for third in the league with nine targets inside the 10-yard line. Mike Evans ($7,700 DK; $7,900 FD) and George Kittle ($6,200 DK; $7,500 FD) are also solid options, but they don't offer the obvious value we see with the cheaper players. Winston-Breida-Godwin-Brate is my favorite DK stack for this game.
RB-Defense Pairings
While not nearly as important as quarterback-receiver combos, RB-Defense mini-stacks present another opportunity to take advantage of positive correlations in tournament lineups. We're generally looking for teams that are comfortably favored to win, preferably with a starting running back who dominates goal-line and clock-killing work.
Marlon Mack ($5,500 DK; $7,000 FD) + Colts D/ST ($2,900 DK; $4,400 FD)
Mack has handled a snap share between 56 to 63 percent each week during the Colts' four-game win streak, hitting paydirt five times while averaging 18 carries for 87 yards. He should stay busy Sunday with the Colts favored by 7.5 points against a Dolphins team ranked 27th in yards allowed per carry (4.8) and 30th in rushing yards allowed per game (142.0). The argument for the Indianapolis defense isn't quite as obvious now that quarterback Ryan Tannehill (shoulder) is set to return, but there's still a lot to like about a matchup with an injury-plagued team coached by Adam Gase. The Dolphins have already lost two offensive linemen to season-ending injuries, along with wide receivers Albert Wilson (hip) and Jakeem Grant (Achilles). Even if Danny Amendola (hamstring) and DeVante Parker (shoulder) end up playing without limitations, the Dolphins don't have enough firepower to keep up with the Colts. The unexpectedly competent Indy defense is averaging 9.8 points on DK and 9.4 on FD in home games.
LeSean McCoy ($4,200 DK; $6,000 FD) + Bills D/ST ($2,700 DK; $4,000 FD)
This contradicts our typical plan of targeting a team favored to win, as the Bills are three-point underdogs for a home game against a Jaguars team stuck in a six-game losing streak. The betting line reflects the putrid state of Buffalo's offense, but it isn't too hard to imagine a scenario in which McCoy stakes the team to a lead and Blake Bortles melts down while playing from behind. The 30-year-old running back finally came to life right before the Bills' Week 11 bye, taking 26 carries for 113 yards and two scores in a shocking 41-10 win over the Jets. McCoy is still averaging just 3.4 yards per carry for the season, but Buffalo's defense has been surprisingly effective, ranking second in yards per pass attempt (6.5) and ninth in yards per carry (4.0). Meanwhile, the Jaguars have become a top-five matchup for opposing defenses, yielding 2.8 sacks and 2.0 turnovers per game.
High-Priced Hero
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (at PHI), ($9,100 DK; $9,000 FD)
Melvin Gordon (knee/hamstring) occupied this spot until a Friday report suggested he may come down to a game-time decision. While it doesn't seem either of his injuries is serious, the Chargers may decided to exercise caution as 13-point favorites, potentially limiting Gordon's workload even if he is active. Barkley now feel like the sure thing among running backs, after last week's three-score performance put him on pace to finish the season with 16 touchdowns and more than 2,000 scrimmage yards. A road matchup with the Eagles might seem sub-optimal at first glance, but the Giants have actually been the better team in recent weeks, benefiting from a clean injury report while their division rivals have been decimated in the secondary. The Eagles still do a good job pressuring quarterbacks, but they haven't done much else on the defensive side, allowing 4.7 yards per carry (25th) and 7.6 per pass attempt (18th). Given the recent play of both teams, the rematch should be much more competitive than Philadelphia's 34-13 win over the Giants from Week 6. In any case, Barkley actually had one of his best games in that blowout loss, finishing with a 13-130-1 rushing line and 9-99-0 receiving line
Fading The Field
Every week we see at least one or two players carrying high ownership without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. Recency bias is often the motivating factor, as many DFSers subconsciously overestimate the predictive value of recent results.
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND (vs. MIA), ($6,500 DK; $7,500 FD)
Hilton was monstrously efficient in last week's blowout win over the Titans, hauling in each of his nine targets for 155 yards and two touchdowns. There's no doubt it was a masterful performance from an excellent player, but we shouldn't lose track of the reality that he still hasn't reached double-digit targets since Week 3. Initial hope for a massive-volume campaign has faded as the Colts have turned out to be surprisingly competitive, with Hilton averaging just 6.2 opportunities in five games since he sat out Weeks 4 and 5 due to a hamstring injury. He'll probably have a couple more huge games before the end of the season, but we don't want to bank on it when recency bias ensures he'll be a popular choice in tournaments. The matchup also points us to Mack over Hilton, as the Colts are favored by 7.5 points against a Miami team that's given up the 11th fewest receiving yards (1,595) to wideouts. Hilton still deserves a spot in season-long lineups, but there are smarter risks to take in the DFS landscape.
The Bargain Bin
QB Nick Mullens, SF (at TB), ($5,300 DK; $6,000 FD)
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA (at IND), ($5,000 DK; $6,600 FD)
QB Case Keenum, DEN (vs. PIT), ($4,700 DK; $6,800 FD)
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF (vs. JAX), ($4,200 DK; $6,000 FD)
RB Peyton Barber, TB (vs. SF), ($3,900 DK; $5,800 FD)
RB Josh Adams, PHI (vs. NYG), ($3,800 DK; $5,700 FD)
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (vs. NE), ($3,600 DK; $4,900 FD)
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (vs. PIT), ($4,400 DK; $5,400 FD)
WR Chris Godwin, TB (vs, SF), ($4,100 DK; $5,500 FD)
WR Kenny Stills, MIA (at IND), ($3,900 DK; $5,300 FD)
WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ (vs. NE), ($3,700 DK; $5,000 FD)
TE C.J. Uzomah, CIN (vs. CLE), ($3,300 DK; $5,200 FD)
D/ST Eagles, (vs. NYG), ($2,400 DK; $3,800 FD)
D/ST Broncos, (vs. PIT), ($2,300 DK; $3,300 FD)
Pricing Discrepancies Between FD and DK
It seems like my strategy between sites gets more and more similar as the season moves along, but we do have a major difference this weekend with a slew of players from the Niners-Bucs game carrying too-low price tags on FanDuel (but not DraftKings). I already discussed this in the stacking section, and it's worth another mention because it means lineups may look totally different between sites even though most of the other player prices aren't too different.
Moving beyond that one game, my FanDuel-only list includes QB Eli Manning ($6,700), RB Kenyan Drake ($5,500), WR Josh Gordon ($6,800), WR Jarvis Landry ($6,100) and TE Vance McDonald ($5,500).
The DK list features QB Philip Rivers ($5,800), WR Emmanuel Sanders ($5,500), WR Kenny Stills ($3,900) and TE Greg Olsen ($4,400).
Injury Situation(s) to Monitor
Green (foot) won't be a good DFS option if he returns for a tricky matchup with Cleveland, but we do want to monitor his status for the impact it has on Tyler Boyd ($6,000 DK; $6,800 FD). Looking to end a two-game slump, Boyd gets a nice individual matchup versus the tough Cleveland defense, as his role in the slot should line him up against Briean Boddy-Calhoun instead of rookie standout Denzel Ward. There's an argument to be made for Boyd even if Green ends up playing, but I prefer the security of a large target total in Green's absence.
I already discussed this situation above, expressing skepticism about Gordon handling his usual workload if he plays. It's enough of a concern to inspire a pivot to the more expensive Barkley, but I'll still keep a close eye on the Gordon situation to see if Austin Ekeler ($3,700 DK; $5,400 FD) needs to be rostered. Given the dirt-cheap price combined with a cupcake home matchup against Arizona, we'll want Ekeler in every DFS lineup if Gordon ultimately is ruled out.
Weather Watch
It looks like we'll have to wait at least one more week for the first true bad-weather game of the 2018 season. There aren't any projections for wind above 10 mph or precipitation in the NFL host cities Sunday afternoon, and only Buffalo is expected to be colder than 40 degrees Fahrenheit (just barely).
