NFL Picks: Week 1 Circa Survivor, Million VII and Grandissimo
They're back! Circa Survivor with its $1000 entry and one gigantic prize gets most of the publicity. And this year, the Vegas sportsbook added Circa Grandissimo, which is the same as Circa Survivor but with a price tag of $100,000. And there's a 2nd….well now, third…..contest, Circa Million VII.
There's no rake in any of these contests, which means all the money goes out to the winners. And there's potential even more money than that as Circa guarantees a minimum for each prizepool. Circa Survivor had $15 million locked in, but blew through that with a grand total of 18,718 entrants. Thus the winner gets a cool $18,718,000. Circa Millions had a $6 million guarantee, and got 5685 entries, which is a record but leaves a $315,000 overlay. Grandsimo took in 69 entries, meaning $6.9 Million goes to the winner.
So let's go over the contests and this week's picks!
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Circa Millions
Contestants pay $1000 and pick 5 games a week against spreads that are set and frozen on Thursday afternoons (Wednesday's on Thanksgiving and sometimes Christmas weeks). There are season long prizes for the top 100, quarterly prizes for the top 5 each quarter, as well as season and quarter long "booby" prizes.
For our purposes, I am going to cover and track the top picks each week as well as the performance of the groups as a whole. It is a generally sharp group that plays Circa Millions. So my goal here will be to try to find any signal through the noise. Should we tail the top picks? How about following the group as a whole? Last year the group went very near .500, but in past years they have performed much better.
Now before we get into this weeks' selection, I just want to throw out a few caveats. Contest point spreads freeze on Thursday, while picks are due on Saturday afternoon. In the 48+ hour gap, real life point spreads can change, thus producing some "line value" on some picks. Thus some popular picks in the pool will have no value to us as bettors since the posted odds are no longer available. Also remember this is a contest and there's some "game theory" going on. Some players fade picks they think will be popular. This gets more pronounced late in quarters and especially at the end of the season. Plus we have players shooting to lose and hit the booby prize. Yada yada yada, the consensus mostly reflects opinions on the games, but not fully.
Oh and finally, I never made it to Vegas this summer, so I did not enter the contest. So if you want to fade my picks, apologies!
OK without further ado, here are the picks.
I'm a Giants fan, so good to see them as the top pick! I get it, they actually look like a better team this season with a fearsome pass rush and an actual NFL QB in Russell Wilson. It's kind of interesting as this line has declined over time as it was Commanders -7 and even above at times this summer. Circa also runs a season long Football Invitational where 25 experts (mostly well known professional bettors) make 7 picks each week from among college and pro spreads and totals. 8 of them landed on the Giants, tied for the highest on any NFL game.
That tied them with the Falcons. Atlanta getting some love here also makes sense as that line is down to Bucs -1.5 or -1 now. These teams really look kind of even and the Falcons have home field. The Seahawks are now just +1.5 with Christian McCaffrey possibly out for the Niners. And the Lions are down to +2, so the line edges likely led to those picks. As for the last member of the top 5, its maybe more that no one wants to back the Titans? At least for now, Rookie QBs have a pretty poor history covering in Week 1. I maybe would have landed on the other 4, but I don't love laying 8.5 in Week 1.
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Circa Survivor
No big shockers here. The Broncos are the biggest favorite. The Eagles were close, but they played on Thursday and most players like to wait until later to enter picks. Also there's a twist in Survivor (and Grandissimo) that I should mention. The 4 games of Thanksgiving-Black Friday count as a week, as do the three Christmas games. The Eagles host the Bears on Black Friday and lots of contestants will try to hold onto the Birds as long as they can. The Chiefs play on both holidays so this twist will impact them as well. 36 intrepid souls had them on Friday night, so that's it for them. Also 24 players failed to enter a pick, so they are done too.
Circa Grandissimo
The Grandissimo will maybe have a different dynamic as far as these holiday games go? The play might be that with so few entries, it will not even make to the Thanksgiving, so just go with your best.
