Super Bowl 58 Live Betting Strategies and Best Bets for the Over/Under

Written by

Published on February 11, 2024

Live Betting Strategy for the Total in Super Bowl LVIII

For Live betting the Under I like betting 50 units preflop. If the game starts out slowly on the scoreboard and the total drops to 39.5 points, I plan to BUY BACK that 50% amount and play the middle between 39.5 and 47.5 points. The other strategy is to bet 50% units UNDER preflop and then look to add 35% more at 50.5 points and 15% more at 53.5 points.

Over the past five seasons, the 49ers and the Chiefs lead the NFL tied with 32 games in which they and their opponents enjoyed a 6 or more-point lead. The Chiefs had 3 games and the 49ers four games this season in which they and their foes enjoyed 6 or more-point leads. So, expect multiple lead changes and use the live game betting strategy detailed above if you agree with me.

Get in on the bonuses over at BetMGM for the big game with the BetMGM bonus code for $158 in bonus bets.

A Highly Profitable Betting Algorithm

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 44-14 Under record good for 76% winning bets since 1989. The requirements are:

· Bet the under in a game where the total is priced between 42.5 and 49 points.

· One of the teams (49ers) is coming off a home game in which they won the game priced as the favorite but did not cover the spread.

· That team is facing a foe coming off an upset road win.

If the game occurs in the playoffs, the Under has gone a near-perfect 6-1 Under for 86% winning bets.

Stay up to date on what the Best NFL Betting Sites are offering for Super Sunday before kickoff.

The Pizza Money Prop Bets

First and foremost, when betting the 49ers be careful not to add too many 49er player props. The mistake most people make is to add player props on the team they bet because they believe those prop bets will win too. One case in point is the 2007 Super Bowl when the Patriots came into the Super Bowl priced as 12.5-point favorites and lost to the Giants 17-14 priced as 12.5-point favorites. If you had bet the Patriots, they obviously lost, and if you added a plethora of player props on Brady and company the majority of those would have lost too resulting in a significant financial loss. So, bet with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours.

Super Bowl 58 Props

1. Christian McCaffrey Over 100 rushing yards +128

Currently at Bet ESPN, the odds for Christian McCaffery to rush for over 100 yards is +128. Note, that when McCaffrey has gained 110 or more yards nd his team has been favored by less than 10 points has seen that team (Panthers and 49ers) go 9-1 SI and 7-3 ATS for 70%. You can also bet any amount of yards that McCaffrey will get with 90 yards having equal vig for the Under and Over bets.

2. Brock Purdy Over 12.5 rushing yards.

This bet is almost akin to a hedge on our 49ers bet that if this bet wins it also could mean that Purdy is scrambling more than expected and that the Chiefs defense is not allowing an separation from the 49ers WRs.

3. Kyle Juszczyk Over 3.5 receiving yards

4. Travis Kelce Under 6.5 receptions (sorry Taylor LOL)

5. Rashee Rice Over 66.5 receiving yards

Rice is the x-factor in this game and I think you will see the 49ers corner Ward mirroring him all over the field. This is a matchup (game within the game) situation that could determine the winner of the Super Bowl. For instance, if Rice scores 2 TDs and has over 150 receiving yards the Chiefs more than likely win this game.

6. Elijah Mitchell Over 1.5 rushing attempts

The Chiefs ranked 27th in defensive rush DVOA this season and will be without Charles Omenihu. Mitchell had at least 2 rushing attempts in the 11 games he suited up for and the 49ers will be looking to pound the ball between the tackles and force the Chiefs to bring up a safety.

7. Kyle Juszczyk +2400 to catch the 49ers first reception

This bet is based on the first play the 49ers run from scrimmage, not which player makes the first catch of the Super Bowl. So, even if the 49ers defer the coin toss and get the second possession of the game, this bet will be active on that first 49ers offensive play. In the last two games, Juszczyk has been targeted on the second play of the 49ers first drive. So, Shanahan has a solid history of mixing up his offensive tendencies in big games. The top-4 49ers are all priced exceptionally low and offer not much value to make that first catch, but Juszcyk is a monster value. $10 here and a winner buys a lot of pizzas.

8. Highest Scoring Quarter will be the 2nd at +170

Since the 2001 Super Bowl, the highest-scoring quarter has been the fourth averaging 15.5 PPG. The second quarter has seen an average of 14.9 PPG. The third has averaged 11 PPG, and the first quarter has averaged 7 PPG. The Chiefs went scoreless in 7 fourth quarters this season, scored 3 or fewer points in the 4th in 13 games, and in four games they did not score in the second half. Just last week in their win over the Ravens they failed to score in the second half. So, that takes out the 4th quarter as a potential bet.

Coaches Record When Trailing After the Third Quarter

It has been mentioned far too often in the past two weeks or so that Shanahan is pathetic in comeback situations sporting a 1-35 SU record when trailing by 5 or more points entering the fourth quarter. The truth is all head coaches in the NFL who have been around for any period have posted horrid records in this trailing situation.

Andy Reid struggled to close out games with a lead and earn the win as the head coach of Philadelphia. Since 2019, he has become one of the greatest closers ion the history of the game going 41-1 SU and 35-6-1 ATS for 85% winning tickets when leading by 5 or more points through three-quarters of action.