We love fixating on the risers during draft season, but for every riser, there's a faller. I wanted to take a closer look at the players the market is cooling on and see whether they're falling knives or good values.
If you click the Biggest Movers tab below, you'll see the full list of players who have slipped in ADP either since mid-April or since the NFL Draft.
Best Ball ADP Fallers 📉
Oronde Gadsden
May 1 ADP: 117
June 30 ADP: 145.8
This one is still pretty confusing to me. Usually, you'd think a guy coming off a smash of a rookie season that was highlighted by 1.76 YPRR, 8.7 ADOT and 14.1% air yardage share would have drafters going bonkers for Year 2.
"Well, they signed David Njoku." Ah, well, Njoku must be getting some steam. Oh wait, he's going in the last round on Underdog now. Same with Charlie Kolar.
The market is also simultaneously steaming Quentin Johnston to the heavens, sending him from pick 106 in April to pick 77.9. Quentin Johnston!
Fantasy drafters are stoked on this Chargers offense. Oddsmakers agree, and have them as one of the most improved offenses in the NFL. And yet, fantasy managers have turned their back on the type of player they would normally rank aggressively (Gadsden).
Leaving aside the ridiculous QJ surge, a 31-pick downgrade from drafters on Gadsden just because of a veteran signing is overdoing it. Gadsden was TE9 before the Njoku signing. Now? TE16. For no real reason. At least, the market isn't rushing to make a stand on either Njoku or Kolar as the right answers.
One of the prevailing talking points this offseason has been the impending wave of two- and three-tight-end sets. It's not exactly what Mike McDaniel was known for in Miami, though 2024 was a good example of how effective his designs can be from that look. And it's also clearly something the Chargers have emphasized in terms of personnel.
| Season | Team | 12 Personnel Plays | Total Plays | 12 Personnel % | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | MIA | 100 | 1095 | 9.1% | 31 |
| 2024 | MIA | 293 | 1076 | 27.2% | 13 |
| 2025 | MIA | 183 | 942 | 19.4% | 27 |
from nflverse.github.io
I think we can trust McDaniel to adjust his scheme to the personnel and get the most out of this group. This is particularly interesting considering the Chargers' relative lack of receiver depth. I like Tre' Harris as much as the next guy, but there's a big gap between McConkey/Johnston and him. The Chargers need to feature tight ends.
"Gadsden's not a good blocker." Don't make him block, then! We don't get fantasy points for blocking. "He's not going to play enough if he doesn't block." He wasn't a good blocker last year and still averaged 40.1 snaps per game from Week 3 onward. There are so many looks the Chargers could use that would still keep Gadsden in the fold.
The market has panicked on Gadsden to a crazy level, and I think we'd be wise to scoop up all the 12th/13th round value that we can over the next couple of months.
Verdict: Buy the dip
And for what it's worth, I'll also buy the dip on Harold Fannin as another TE faller who is now an excellent value.
Michael Wilson
May 1 ADP: 84.7
June 30 ADP: 95.9
I'm starting to get really worried about the Cardinals' passing game. Arizona has the toughest schedule in the NFL this season and the oddsmakers have the Cards as the lowest-scoring offense in football this year.
| Team | Implied PPG | SoS | Win Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 18.56 | 32 | 4.5 |
I don't want to borrow too much from what I wrote on them in my implied totals vs best ball ADP article, but some of it bears repeating.
Last year might've been a black swan event. This offseason has made it highly unlikely for a repeat. There's a new coaching staff and the team just spent the third overall pick in the draft on Jeremiyah Love, in addition to giving Tyler Allgeier a $12m deal. Also, we might not get the primo target concentration that Trey McBride and Michael Wilson enjoyed last year if Marvin Harrison stays healthy.
We might be looking at a more balanced, more deliberate, and more boring version of bad in Arizona.
If there were a market for Team With The Most Starting Quarterbacks This Season, the Cardinals would have to be the betting favorite. There's a standoff with Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew is there for additional veteran experience, and Carson Beck was a Day 2 pick in April. I'll be fairly surprised if all three don't make multiple starts.
Wilson was obviously awesome with Brissett last year, but it also helped that they were throwing it a ton and Marvin Harrison missed significant time. That set the stage for the McBride/Wilson show every week.
Here's a Michael Wilson table with last year's data when Jacoby Brissett was playing quarterback, distilled down to when Harrison was or wasn't on the field alongside him.
| Metric | Harrison off | Harrison on |
|---|---|---|
| Targets | 85 | 23 |
| Receptions | 54 | 16 |
| Catch % | 63.5% | 69.6% |
| Rec yards | 727 | 227 |
| Yards/target | 8.55 | 9.87 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 1 |
| Air yards / tgt | 12.98 | 8.48 |
| YAC / reception | 3.26 | 4.94 |
from nflverse.github.io
The sample without Harrison is much bigger, but this is an interesting side-by-side regardless. A healthy Harrison could be an issue for Wilson's target opportunities if nothing else. And that's already considering Trey McBride is eating up nearly a quarter of the targets.
Now, I do think that Wilson's 2025 breakout will guarantee him a bigger role this year even when Harrison is out there. That sample above illustrates that Wilson was almost invisible in this offense alongside Harrison. That won't be the case this year.
Now we're running into a murkier split of target distribution between Harrison and Wilson. The market seems to think that Harrison wins that battle, and I tend to agree.
Then there's the overall team context of a more run-heavy approach that pinches the volume margins. Arizona's 66.1% pass rate last year won't be happening again.
The market is already coming around to the idea that Wilson might be the guy most negatively affected from this offseason in Arizona. Even if they give him an extension before the season, what does that materially change for us? It guarantees that he'll have a role, something we were already expecting.
We now have to evaluate Wilson in a WR-rich part of the ADP where the likes of Josh Downs, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Jakobi Meyers and Michael Pittman are all likely available as well. Maybe that's a sign to just opt out of the question and spread your exposure across each of those players. But if you have one draft, it's hard to click Wilson when each of those guys plays in a better offense.
It's more palatable to take the plunge with Wilson in the 9th than it was at the height of his ADP earlier in the offseason, of course. But there still seems to be a decent amount of risk due to factors outside of his control. Wilson is very good. I'm convinced of that. But man, I'm scared of investing in the Cardinals this year.
Verdict: Tread Lightly
Brandon Aiyuk
May 1 ADP: 159.7
June 30 ADP: 182.7
When was the last time Brandon Aiyuk was putting up numbers for fantasy? To quote Staind's classic early 2000s hit "It's Been Awhile," ...well, it's been a while. Like, Week 5 of 2024. Since then, he's suffered a significant knee injury and taken an ... interesting path off the field towards his eventual parting of ways from the 49ers.
Earlier in draft season, drafters lumped Aiyuk in with the other veteran free agents. Understandably, things have taken a drastically different shape.
I have seen two warring factions emerge in light of this. The Aiyuk bulls say that he's simply too talented to be going this late, and is now a must-draft. The bears say that Aiyuk is too big a risk and he's not worth it, even in the 16th.
I side with the latter. Let's examine both sides, though. Here's a snapshot of the best ball ADP neighborhood Aiyuk currently resides in.
Is Brandon Aiyuk better than the rest of this group? Assuming he's back to 100%, yes. So I get that. Aiyuk has seasons with 2.08 and 3.32 YPRR under his belt and enters his age-28 season. Even with the implied risk, Aiyuk's talent profile sticks out like a sore thumb in this group.
The problem is, even if Aiyuk plays this year, are we sure he's that same guy? The clock is already ticking on him getting up to speed in time for Week 1. A rushed ramp-up period didn't work out so great for Aiyuk two years ago, and he knew the offense already. He had exactly one game with more than 50 yards before the injury in 2024.
There's just too much that can go wrong with Aiyuk for me to be drafting him aggressively at this ADP, even if it's close to the rock bottom. A share or two here or there, sure. But I can't stake my endgame plans around someone with this much off-field drama.
Put another way, I think there's at least as good of a chance that Aiyuk is a stone Zero in fantasy as there is that he gives you even four usable weeks.
Verdict: Sell
Malik Nabers
May 1 ADP: 17.6
June 30 ADP: 34.0
A 17-pick drop is massive when considering the ADP capital. The May 13 announcement that Nabers had a cleanup procedure earlier in the offseason started the tumble, and it has kept rolling downhill as we get into July. Prior to May 13, we already knew Nabers was coming off a messy ACL tear and still felt good about him inside the top 20.
Let's game this out a little bit, shall we? I mean, what we really want to know is whether Nabers will make us look foolish for letting him fall this far when injury news dropped four+ months away from Week 1.
What if he's ready for training camp? It seems a little unlikely, and the team will likely slow-play him regardless, but his status for an early-season debut would look a bit better. The ADP might creep back up towards its original spot and maybe even get back into the late 2nd-round. The Nabers skeptics will put on their Injury Expert hats as they quote-tweet Giants training camp clips with snarky comments about how off his gait looks. It'll be a great time to be online.
What if he's not ready for training camp? The panic will intensify, and the ADP will drop even lower. Drafters will need to reframe their expectations and ask themselves if 10-12 games of Nabers is better than full seasons from guys like Tee Higgins, Zay Flowers or Ladd McConkey.
To me, the question is less about if/when Nabers will play this year, and more about the how. I'm not expecting him to play all 17 games, personally. The Giants have every right to be cautious with their star third-year receiver. But if that caution results in 10 games of full-powered Nabers to finish the season, we'll be happy we clicked him this summer. Maybe an ADP of 34 doesn't fully bake in the downside risk with a player coming off such a serious knee injury. Especially when half his games are on the cursed MetLife turf.
All of that being said, I'm willing to take some shots on Nabers over the next month. Of all the players on this list, save maybe Aiyuk, Nabers' ADP has the most volatility potential. The news on his knee could sway his ADP by multiple rounds in either direction.
