Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Browns vs. Giants

"Nothing says 2020 like..." is a pretty tired phrase at this point, but boy, nothing says 2020 like Browns vs. Giants getting flexed into the Sunday night game, pushing 49ers vs. Cowboys to the 1:00 p.m. ET time slot.

The 9-4 Browns come into Sunday second in the AFC North, and their playoff destiny is in their hands. Meanwhile, the Giants are 5-8 and technically 12th in the NFC, but they are very much still in the playoff hunt because the Washington Football Team leads the NFC East at 6-7. There are some injury concerns with the home team, which is why the Giants, winners of four of their last five, are 6.0-point underdogs in a game with a 44.0-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. Meanwhile, the Browns also won four of their last five, losing a 47-42 thriller last week to the Ravens.

QUARTERBACKS

The biggest question of the game is whether Giants quarterback Daniel Jones ($10,200 DK, $14,500 FD) will play through the ankle and hamstring injuries that have him officially listed as questionable. If he is unable to go, which is expected, the Giants will once again turn to Colt McCoy ($8,600 DK, $14,500 FD), who completed 13-of-22 passes for 105 yards and one touchdown in a start against Seattle in Week 13. McCoy also came on for Jones last week against Arizona, completing 2-of-3 passes for 18 yards after Jones could only complete 11-of-21 for 127 while also fumbling thrice (losing one).

On the plus side, only five teams have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Browns, who have had issues with mobile quarterbacks, allowing the second-most rushing yards to the position. Of course, playing Lamar Jackson twice contributes to that, but it would be an interesting situation for Jones, who has the fifth-most rushing yards among quarterbacks this season. McCoy barely runs at all, so any thought that Jones might be able to take advantage with his feet doesn't really transfer to McCoy.

After a rough stretch two-game stretch following their Week 9 bye, the Browns' Baker Mayfield ($10,600 DK, $16,000 FD) has been playing very well, with at least 250 passing yards and multiple touchdowns in three straight games, including more than 330 and seven total scores in the last two. However, he has an opposite matchup, as the Giants have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, holding their last five opponents to one or zero passing touchdowns. Luckily for Mayfield, star cornerback James Bradberry will not play after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, but it's not like he's the only solid defender on the team.

If there's one thing that usually hampers Mayfield it's a lack of volume because the Browns love to run the ball, and given that the Giants have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs, it might behoove the Browns to focus on their run game.

Using McCoy as a captain/MVP seems like a strategy for the crazy, but Mayfield should garner some interest even with the tough matchup. Given the Browns are decent favorites, Mayfield is probably the first pivot if you don't want to focus on the Browns' backfield, which is where those who specifically try to be contrarian should go.

RUNNING BACKS

The Browns running backs have been absolutely dominant recently, particularly Nick Chubb ($11,200 DK, $15,000 FD), the most expensive player on DraftKings and second-most on FanDuel (trailing only Mayfield). Chubb has rushed for at least 80 yards or scored a touchdown in seven of nine games this season, including each of the last five, a span that saw him get between 17 and 20 carries in each. The only thing holding Chubb back recently is fellow running back Kareem Hunt ($7,000 DK, $12,500 FD), who failed to get double-digit rushing attempts for the first time last week, but he made up for it with a season-high six catches on seven targets for 77 receiving yards and a touchdown. And it's not like he was ineffective on the ground, as he had 33 rushing yards and a touchdown on six carries.

We don't usually consider playing two running backs from the same team, but Chubb and Hunt seem to be an exception, as we can see with their DraftKings scoring trend throughout the season:

And, as mentioned, the Giants haven't been great against the run this season, and there's a positive specifically for Hunt because New York has allowed the fourth-most receptions and second-most receiving yards to running backs this season. Given their usage, we could see plenty of lineups with both Chubb and Hunt, and both make perfectly serviceable captains. Generally you don't want to captain/MVP one running back if you're playing two because the hope is the one you captain/MVP gets a vast majority of the opportunities and has a monster game, but given the make-up of both teams, it seems like it could be a viable strategy Sunday night.

The Giants running backs seem likely to be mostly ignored against a Browns defense that had allowed two running back touchdowns in six games before giving up three last week to the Ravens. Wayne Gallman ($8,800 DK, $12,000 FD) continues to lead the backfield, and while he struggled last week against Arizona, he had scored a touchdown or reached 100 yards in each of the previous six games. The matchup against the Browns isn't great, but Gallman is surely going to be an option over backups Dion Lewis ($1,600 DK, $7,000 FD) and Alfred Morris ($1,000 DK, $7,000 FD). Lewis had been used as the pass-catching back, but with zero targets in the past two games, it's really tough to see a path where he or Morris is the right call as long as Gallman doesn't get hurt.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

The Giants have a number of solid pass catchers, but you have to figure they aren't likely to reach their ceilings with McCoy under center. Tight end Evan Engram ($5,000 DK, $9,500 FD) is actually the most targeted player in the game (88), and he leads the Giants in receptions (50) while being second in receiving yards (526) and air yards (608). Wide receiver Darius Slayton ($6,200 DK, $10,500 FD) is the one ahead of him in receiving yards (629) and air yards (982), and his 12.9 aDOT also leads the team. However, he has only four catches on 11 targets for 45 yards in the past three games combined, and there's little optimism for any kind of explosion with McCoy starting.

Sterling Shepard ($7,200 DK, $8,500 FD) seems to be the more likely place to go if you want access to the Giants' wide recievers, as he's been targeted at least five times in seven consecutive games, though he has only one touchdown in that span while never reaching 75 yards. It's not a lot, but the Browns have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, so there's at least some reason to be slightly optimistic. No. 3 wide receiver Golden Tate ($2,400 DK, $8,000 FD) is theoretically an option too, but he seems more suited for those who make a ton of lineups. 

Ultimately, Engram and Shepard seem to be the Giants pass catchers most people will target, but you really have to wonder how successful they'll be with a quarterback who might struggle to reach even 200 passing yards.

Jarvis Landry ($9,800 DK, $13,500 FD) has been the most active Browns pass catcher this season, and particularly of late, with 30 targets in the past three games, helping him to 257 yards and two touchdowns on 22 receptions. He could also be the most popular receiver in the game, especially with Bradberry out. In fact, Landry and Rashard Higgins ($8,200 DK, $11,000 FD) get upgrades in this week's Corner Report by Mario Puig, and they make for solid alternatives to focusing on the backfield.

Higgins has been very solid in the past two games, which coincided with Mayfield's successful stint, as he caught 12 of 19 targets for 163 yards and two touchdowns, and while he's not cheap on either site, he's at least cheaper than Landry. Higgins' 13.4 aDOT is also much higher than Landry's 8.6, so the thought is that he may not need as many receptions to reach a solid number of receiving yards. And speaking of high aDOTs, Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,600 DK, $9,000 FD) leads the team with a 19.3 aDOT, though he has just 14 targets. Eight of those 14 came in the past two games, helping him to 166 yards and a touchdown on five catches, and while he seems like a reasonable cheaper option, he's really not that cheap. Peoples-Jones also takes a hit if KhaDarel Hodge ($600 DK, $5,500 FD) returns from his hamstring injury, and he could get some interest if only because he's so cheap.

Tight end Austin Hooper ($4,200 DK, $7,000 FD) is questionable because of a neck injury, though he practiced fully Friday and is expected to play. While that's a plus for Mayfield, Hooper had just two targets in three of his last four games, so you can't really be that excited at his prospects. At the very least, he probably pushes you away from considering Harrison Bryant ($3,200 DK, $4,500 FD) despite his six targets last week. And while David Njoku ($3,400 DK, $7,000 FD) always feels enticing, he's questionable to play because of a knee injury and hasn't even been that effective when healthy.

Given how the teams play, it doesn't seem likely that any individual pass catcher will be popular as captain/MVP, as the running backs could get plenty of attention and Mayfield seems like a reasonable target if you think he continues to spread the ball around. That obviously opens them all up as decent leverage plays, with Landry possibly the most popular ahead of Higgins or any of the Giants' top options.

KICKERS

A low-total game should have fantasy players considering both Graham Gano ($3,600 DK, $9,000 FD) and Cody Parkey ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD), with the latter likely to be more popular because the expectations are fairly low for the Giants' offense. Then again, if they can at least move the ball but not get it into the end zone, Gano could have a great game.

It always comes down to the players who are priced around them and how likely they are to reach some kind of ceiling because those are likely higher than whatever a kicker can score. So, if you think Peoples-Jones, Hooper, Bryant, Tate or Lewis can get there then maybe they make more sense than the kickers. Of course, with a low total, it would take quite a bit of luck for one of those guys to have an explosive game, which is why cash-game players will surely focus more on Gano and Parkey.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Browns ($5,600 DK) defense has been very solid of late, with at least three sacks in three of their last four games, and they're now facing a backup quarterback who has had no success in his limited playing time this season. Meanwhile, the Giants ($4,000 DK) have actually been better fantasy scorers than the Browns recently, but it's not enough to expect a lot Sunday night. The position is just so variant overall, so while both defenses will surely be in the player pool for those who make a ton of lineups, they are fine for those who make only a few but unlikely to be a real priority despite the low total.